全文获取类型
收费全文 | 22781篇 |
免费 | 213篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 3125篇 |
民族学 | 146篇 |
人才学 | 1篇 |
人口学 | 3411篇 |
丛书文集 | 78篇 |
教育普及 | 2篇 |
理论方法论 | 1631篇 |
综合类 | 618篇 |
社会学 | 10605篇 |
统计学 | 3377篇 |
出版年
2021年 | 67篇 |
2020年 | 189篇 |
2019年 | 222篇 |
2018年 | 1851篇 |
2017年 | 1954篇 |
2016年 | 1314篇 |
2015年 | 261篇 |
2014年 | 286篇 |
2013年 | 2080篇 |
2012年 | 710篇 |
2011年 | 1419篇 |
2010年 | 1232篇 |
2009年 | 985篇 |
2008年 | 1053篇 |
2007年 | 1233篇 |
2006年 | 216篇 |
2005年 | 567篇 |
2004年 | 534篇 |
2003年 | 458篇 |
2002年 | 345篇 |
2001年 | 319篇 |
2000年 | 308篇 |
1999年 | 314篇 |
1998年 | 209篇 |
1997年 | 205篇 |
1996年 | 241篇 |
1995年 | 188篇 |
1994年 | 204篇 |
1993年 | 177篇 |
1992年 | 236篇 |
1991年 | 232篇 |
1990年 | 211篇 |
1989年 | 219篇 |
1988年 | 203篇 |
1987年 | 185篇 |
1986年 | 190篇 |
1985年 | 174篇 |
1984年 | 207篇 |
1983年 | 200篇 |
1982年 | 165篇 |
1981年 | 137篇 |
1980年 | 139篇 |
1979年 | 166篇 |
1978年 | 136篇 |
1977年 | 119篇 |
1976年 | 102篇 |
1975年 | 101篇 |
1974年 | 95篇 |
1973年 | 93篇 |
1971年 | 65篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 0 毫秒
51.
Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced
times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the
probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of
destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory
has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces
a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when
the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian
framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends
at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data,
complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems. 相似文献
52.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
53.
The Measurement of Multidimensional Poverty 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
Many authors have insisted on the necessity of defining poverty as a multidimensional concept rather than relying on income or consumption expenditures per capita. Yet, not much has actually been done to include the various dimensions of deprivation into the practical definition and measurement of poverty. Existing attempts along that direction consist of aggregating various attributes into a single index through some arbitrary function and defining a poverty line and associated poverty measures on the basis of that index. This is merely redefining more generally the concept of poverty, which then essentially remains a one dimensional concept. The present paper suggests that an alternative way to take into account the multi-dimensionality of poverty is to specify a poverty line for each dimension of poverty and to consider that a person is poor if he/she falls below at least one of these various lines. The paper then explores how to combine these various poverty lines and associated one-dimensional gaps into multidimensional poverty measures. An application of these measures to the rural population in Brazil is also given with poverty defined on income and education. 相似文献
54.
55.
56.
57.
Gayane Novikova 《Transition Studies Review》2004,11(3):213-223
The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region. 相似文献
58.
This article aims to bring gender into an even tighter transnational migration focus by broadening and deepening our original framework of “gendered geographies of power,” linking it more directly to existing and emerging scholarship. We examine and highlight previously neglected areas such as the role of the state and the social imaginary in gendering transnational processes and experiences. We identify topics that remain under‐appreciated, under‐researched, and/or under‐theorized. Finally, we initiate a discussion of how a gendered analysis of transnational migration can help bridge this particular research to other gendered transnational processes under study that do not privilege migration. 相似文献
59.
D. R. Cox Man Yu Wong 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2004,66(2):395-400
Summary. Given a large number of test statistics, a small proportion of which represent departures from the relevant null hypothesis, a simple rule is given for choosing those statistics that are indicative of departure. It is based on fitting by moments a mixture model to the set of test statistics and then deriving an estimated likelihood ratio. Simulation suggests that the procedure has good properties when the departure from an overall null hypothesis is not too small. 相似文献
60.
Lu Lin 《Statistical Papers》2004,45(4):529-544
The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations.
The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where
the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the
meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a
generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized
quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct
the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for
the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical
results.
This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University. 相似文献