Mind-Reading and Metacognition: Narcissism, not Actual Competence, Predicts Self-Estimated Ability

In this paper, we examine the relationship between people's actual interpersonal sensitivity (such as their ability to identify deception and to infer intentions and emotions) and their perceptions of their own sensitivity. Like prior scholars, we find the connection is weak or non-existent and that most people overestimate their social judgment and mind-reading skills. Unlike previous work, however, we show new evidence about who misunderstands their sensitivity and why. We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mind-reading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.     

The influence of family visiting upon boys' behavior in a juvenile correctional institution

Parental visiting, already recognized as essential for children in foster care, has a direct beneficial effect upon the behavior of children in correctional placements.     

The constancy of crime hypothesis: Historical evidence from Plymouth Colony

In extending Durkheimian thought on the relationship between deviance and social order, Erikson (1966) advanced the constancy of crime hypothesis, maintaining that the volume of deviant behavior remains stable over time. Erikson's data for Essex County do show remarkable stability for the years 1651–1680 in the reported offender rate. However, Essex County represents a very limited test of the hypothesis. We present comparative historical data for the entirety of Plymouth Colony, 1633–1679, finding that change—not constancy—best characterizes the evidence. The lack of unequivocal support for the hypothesis suggests a need for its rethinking. Several such possibilities are briefly discussed.We wish to thank our colleagues David L. Smith, Charles J. Dudley, Michael Hughes, Richard Schuster, Alan C. Acock (Sociology), A. Roger Ekirch (Department of History) and the anonymous reviewers ofQualitative Sociology for their helpful suggestions on a prior version of this paper. The research was made possible by a small project grant from VPI & SU, and we gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Catherine L. Hammond in completing the investigation.     

School performance, academic aspirations, and drug use among children and adolescents

The relationship between drug use, school performance, and academic aspirations among 446 Anglo and Hispanic youths, age nine to seventeen, is explored. Two groups of subjects--current substance users and non-users--were interviewed. Subjects in each comparison group were similar in age, ethnicity, and gender. Overall results, consistent with prior research, indicate a significant relationship between current school performance, future educational aspirations, and drug use. No difference was noted between substance use groups on indicators of general interest in school work or probability of dropping out of school. Important differences in response patterns occurring with age, ethnicity, and gender were found.     

BASIC FAMILY THERAPY SKILLS,II: STRUCTURAL FAMILY THERAPY1

The Basic Family Therapy Skills Project has yielded empirically derived skills important for beginning family therapists. This article reports the results of ratings from the 103-member panel of experts who practice and teach Structural Family Therapy. A total of 100 competencies of Structural Family Therapy were rated in terms of importance on a 5-point Likert scale by the panel. Panelists were also given alternative responses such as “appropriate as a generic skill,”“inappropriate for beginning therapists,” and “don't understand what this means.” Rationale for the approach and results are discussed in terms of the importance of empirically based competencies for the practice of Structural Family Therapy.     

Regularities and irregularities in a random 0,1 sequence

A few properties of the random 0,1 sequences are studied. These properties can be utilized to test the randomness of a 0,1 sequence produced by a computer (random generator). This test seems to be appropriate for discovering the periodicity (or the length of the period) of a pseudorandom sequence. A possible application of the presented results in regression analysis is also discussed.     

Managing Demand Uncertainty through Core Acquisition in Remanufacturing

We discuss the optimal raw material acquisition strategy for a third party remanufacturer (3PR). We specifically investigate whether a 3PR should acquire used products or cores in bulk with uncertain quality levels, or in sorted grades with known quality levels; and whether to acquire and remanufacture cores before the demand is realized (planned acquisition), or after the demand is realized (reactive acquisition), or on both occasions (sequential acquisition). When only sorted cores are acquired, we find that, (i) it is optimal to acquire cores in multiple grades to balance acquisition and remanufacturing costs; (ii) if reactive acquisition is possible, it reduces the assortment size (number of grades in which cores are acquired) and the total inventory acquired in the planned acquisition; and (iii) the optimal portfolio of grades to acquire and the optimal acquisition and remanufacturing quantities of these grades can be determined analytically. When bulk cores are acquired in addition to sorted cores, the property of reduction in assortment size of the planned acquisition is preserved. We also show that the 3PR should acquire only a fraction of the demand in planned acquisition, and leave the rest for reactive acquisition. This fraction changes during the lifecycle of a remanufactured product. Using a combination of empirical and realistic data from a smartphone remanufacturer we show that sequential acquisition increases expected profit by up to 8% and 27% over only planned and only reactive acquisitions respectively, and reduces the inventory acquired by up to 21% over only planned acquisition.