Intergenerational cooperation within the household: a Public Good game with three generations

We analyze cooperation of individuals in a family context, using a Public Good game. In a lab experiment, 165 individuals from 55 three-generation families (youth, parent, and grandparent) play a repeated Public Good game in three different treatments: one in which three members of the same family play each other (family), a second with the youth and two non-family members, while preserving the previous generational structure (inter-generational), and a third in which three randomly-selected players play each other (random). We find that all the age groups cooperate more when playing with relatives, indicating that family ties may have a positive relationship to contributions to the Public Good. We also find that this trend is more evident for the youths and the parents than for the grandparents. Furthermore, young individuals tend to cooperate less than older generations, especially in non-family treatments. Our results serve as evidence of the relationship between family ties and inter-generational cooperative behaviors.

     

Everything for the Children: Orphans Growing Up in Informal Adoptive Families in China

Most orphaned children in China are cared for by their extended families or become state wards under the guardianship of child welfare institutions. Some exceptions are children who are found and cared for by families in the community, without a formalized adoption or foster relationship. In some locations, institutions now accept guardianship for these children and support the informal adoptive family to continue to care for them. This article examines the outcomes for these children as they became young adults by comparing these 12 children raised within the system as they approach or have approached young adulthood (now aged 16–40 years-old). Some of the participants were either informally adopted or lived in institutional care. The results of this study found that the family environment was more conducive to the young people’s wellbeing as they approached or entered adulthood. The participants raised in informal care appeared to be treated similar to the biological children in these families. When the institution formalized the state guardianship responsibility, it also meant the families had state resources for support to protect the children’s rights to economic security, education, health care, and social participation. This practice by the institution supported the addition of informal adoption, as one step closer to permanency than foster care. Future implications include considering this option to help promote the family system assisting these children, families, and the state.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

Prediction of future failures times based on Type-I hybrid censored samples of random sample sizes

In this article, we consider the prediction of future failure times based on Type-I hybrid censored samples. Point predictors and prediction intervals using different procedures are discussed for a general model. The exponential and Rayleigh distributions are used as illustrative examples to show the most simplified forms of the so obtained predictors as well as prediction intervals. Intensive simulation study and a real life dataset are presented to illustrate our findings and results.     

Tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes

In this article, we introduce tempered Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (TMLLP). TMLLP is represented as tempered stable subordinator delayed by a gamma process. Its probability density function and Lévy density are obtained in terms of infinite series and Mittag-Leffler function, respectively. Asymptotic forms of the tails and moments are given. A step-by-step procedure of the parameters estimation and simulation of sample paths is given. We also provide main results available for Mittag-Leffler Lévy processes (MLLP) and some extensions which are not available in a collective way in a single article. Our results generalize and complement the results available on Mittag-Leffler distribution and MLLP in several directions. Further, the asymptotic forms of the moments of the first-exit times of the TMLLP are also discussed.     

The effect of small sample on optimal designs for logistic regression models

Asymptotic methods are commonly used in statistical inference for unknown parameters in binary data models. These methods are based on large sample theory, a condition which may be in conflict with small sample size and hence leads to poor results in the optimal designs theory. In this paper, we apply the second order expansions of the maximum likelihood estimator and derive a matrix formula for the mean square error (MSE) to obtain more precise optimal designs based on the MSE. Numerical results indicate the new optimal designs are more efficient than the optimal designs based on the information matrix.     

Probabilistic solutions to ordinary differential equations as nonlinear Bayesian filtering: a new perspective

Statistics and Computing - We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with nonlinear...     

The exponentiated power exponential regression model with different regression structures: application in nursing data

We define the exponentiated power exponential distribution and propose a regression model with different systematic structures based on the new distribution. We show that the new regression model can be applied to dispersion data since it represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models some widely-known regression models. It then can be used more effectively in the analysis of real data. We use maximum likelihood estimation and derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. Some global-influence measurements are also investigated and simulation studies are performed to evaluate the accuracy of the estimates. We provide an application of the regression model with four systematic structures to nursing activities score data in the Unit of the Medical Clinic of University of São Paulo (USP) Hospital.     

Child Obesity and the Interaction of Family and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Context

Population Research and Policy Review - The literature on neighborhoods and child obesity links contextual conditions to risk, assuming that if place matters, it matters in a similar way for...