APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used. The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.     

"Contract" and Admission to Old People's Homes

Summary Various authors have recently recommended that residents inOld People's Homes should have ‘contracts’. Thisarticle begins by discussing the nature of contracts in general,and the circumstances under which contracts are or are not feltto be appropriate. The nature of Old People's Homes is discussed, and it is shownthat, under what would be considered good practice, there arefew reasons why Homes should not offer contracts. A final sectionputs forward some advantages which contracts might bring.     

MORAL HAZARD, ASSET SPECIFICITY, IMPLICIT BONDING, AND COMPENSATION: THE CASE OF FRANCHISING

In franchising, many of the elements of moral hazard models merge. Issues of two-sided moral hazard, bonding, and asset specificity all play a role. We extend the literature by considering how asset specificity creates an implicit bond and affects incentive pay. This approach implies that if one party posts a larger bond, this improves their incentives and allows enhancement of the other party's incentives through a larger residual income claim. Our empirical work supports this approach. For example, reductions in the specificity of the franchisee's investment due to leasing lowers the royalty rate and raises the franchise fee. (JEL L14, 533)     

UNDERPAID and OVERWORKED: MEASURING THE EFFECT OF IMPERFECT INFORMATION ON WAGES

This paper investigates the degree of shortfall between the wages workers earn and what they could earn assuming perfect or costless information in the labor market. We use the stochastic frontier regression technique to estimate the degree of shortfall found in wages on an individual basis. The paper tests, in addition, a number of hypotheses supplied by search theory in this context. The results generally confirm the propositions from search theory and indicate that, on the average, worker wages fall short of worker potential wages by approximately 10 percent.     

THE RATE OF RETURN TO MEXICAN AMERICANS AND ANGLOS ON AN INVESTMENT IN A COLLEGE EDUCATION

Rates of return to an investment in a college education are estimated for Mexican American and Anglo male college graduates with majors in business, accounting, education and liberal arts. The returns, estimated for 1967, 1970 and 1973 graduates of Pan American University, are quite substantial for all but the Anglo education majors. The returns to the business and accounting majors substantially exceed those to the other graduates. There was no strong tendency for the rates of return to fall over time nor were there any systematic differences between the returns to the two ethnic groups. This latter result does not imply an absence of labor market discrimination against Mexican American college graduates.     

MONEY, CREDIT, and WAGES IN HYPERINFLATION: POST-WORLD WAR I GERMANY

An important feature of the German hyperinflation is the way in which accelerating monetization of both government and private debt by the Reichsbank fueled the inflation process. The stimulus to private credit demand arising from more rapid adjustment of money wages over this period is often ignored, however. The present empirical results strongly support the importance of wage pressures in augmenting fiscal influences on nominal money growth during 1920–1923. Our findings also suggest that wage claims provided the main conduit through which higher inflationary expectations were accommodated by faster rates of monetary expansion.     

TIME PREFERENCE AND THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF WEALTH AND INCOME

This paper examines the connection between time preference heterogeneity and economic inequality in a deterministic environment. Specifically, we extend the standard neoclassical growth model to allow for (1) heterogeneity in consumers' discount rates, (2) direct preferences for wealth, and (3) human capital formation. The second feature prevents the wealth distribution from collapsing into a degenerate distribution. The third feature generates a strong positive correlation between earnings and capital income across consumers. A calibrated version of the model is able to generate patterns of wealth and income inequality that are very similar to those observed in the United States. (JEL D31, E21, O15)     

Semiparametric Mixtures of Generalized Exponential Families

Abstract.  A semiparametric mixture model is characterized by a non-parametric mixing distribution Q (with respect to a parameter θ ) and a structural parameter β common to all components. Much of the literature on mixture models has focused on fixing β and estimating Q . However, this can lead to inconsistent estimation of both Q and the order of the model m . Creating a framework for consistent estimation remains an open problem and is the focus of this article. We formulate a class of generalized exponential family (GEF) models and establish sufficient conditions for the identifiability of finite mixtures formed from a GEF along with sufficient conditions for a nesting structure. Finite identifiability and nesting structure lead to the central result that semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation of Q and β fails. However, consistent estimation is possible if we restrict the class of mixing distributions and employ an information-theoretic approach. This article provides a foundation for inference in semiparametric mixture models, in which GEFs and their structural properties play an instrumental role.     

SCHOOL QUALITY AND INFORMATION DISCLOSURE: EVIDENCE FROM THE HOUSING MARKET

In this article, we investigate the relationship between school quality and information disclosure in housing markets. When presented with the option of identifying their local public school in a real estate listing, we find that sellers with homes assigned to higher‐performing schools are more likely to provide this information. We find more evidence of selective disclosure in 2001–2002 than in 2006–2007, when the costs of gathering and disclosing information on school assignments and quality were lower. Furthermore, we find more evidence of strategic behavior among sellers of large single‐family units that presumably appeal to families with children. After controlling for school quality, information disclosure does not appear to affect housing prices. Taken together, our results support the findings of the education literature on the importance of school quality capitalization in residential real estate and they provide the first evidence of strategic information disclosure in housing markets. (JEL L15, I20, R31)