The Life and Death of the Care Order (Criminal)

Professor Robert Harris, Department of Social Policy and Professional Studies. The University of Hull. Hull, HU6 7RX. Summary This paper traces the life history of the care order (criminal)from its inception in the 1969 Children and Young Persons Actto its abolition in the 1989 Children Act. It is argued thatthe care order (criminal) is a microcosm of the central ambiguityof the juvenile justice system, and that its history accordinglymirrors that of juvenile justice itself. An empirical studyis then reported which demonstrates that the role of the provisionsince 1983 has been complex, but that it has catered for threedistinct groups of offenders, of whom only one poses a policyproblem. The ‘residence requirement’ solution tothis problem in the 1989 Children Act is welcomed as havinga better chance of sustaining the different tasks of the juvenilejustice system.     

HOME COMPUTERS AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE NLSY97 and CPS*

Although computers are universal in the classroom, nearly 20 million children in the United States do not have computers in their homes. Surprisingly, only a few previous studies explore the role of home computers in the educational process. Home computers might be very useful for completing school assignments, but they might also represent a distraction for teenagers. We use several identification strategies and panel data from the two main U.S. data sets that include recent information on computer ownership among children—the 2000–2003 Current Population Survey (CPS) Computer and Internet Use Supplements matched to the CPS basic monthly files and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97)—to explore the causal relationship between computer ownership and high school graduation and other educational outcomes. Teenagers who have access to home computers are 6–8 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school than teenagers who do not have home computers after controlling for individual, parental, and family characteristics. We generally find evidence of positive relationships between home computers and educational outcomes using several identification strategies, including controlling for typically unobservable home environment and extracurricular activities in the NLSY97, fixed effects models, instrumental variables, and including future computer ownership and falsification tests. Home computers may increase high school graduation by reducing nonproductive activities, such as truancy and crime, among children in addition to making it easier to complete school assignments (JEL I2).     

THE VALUE OF RISK: MEASURING THE SERVICE OUTPUT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS

Banks often charge implicitly for their services via interest spreads, instead of explicit fees. Much of bank output thus has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find that in the U.S. National Accounts between 1997 and 2007, bank output was overestimated by 21% and gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.3%. Compared with current methods, our new estimates imply more plausible estimates of the income share of capital and the return on fixed capital of the banking industry. (JEL E01, E44, O47)     

On Developing 'representations from presentations'; Observing the Laws of the Natural and Social Worlds

Abstract This essay examines the use of object lessons as a component of 19th century Ontario educational practice, and demonstrates their development to interactive lessons in moral and cultural observation. It is demonstrated that the laws of nature and society were perceived as parallel systems of order. The essay then demonstrates the use of these pedagogical forms in the management of classroom situations.     

The Place of Fostering in Social Work

Summary To foster children is no longer regarded as the main objectiveof the child care services. However, fostering is once againa matter of social work and public debate. The paper explainsthat more types of children are now being assessed as requiringfostering at a time when social service departments are findingit difficult to expand their number of foster homes. This greaterdemand for foster homes coincides with recent researches whichhelp to clarify the nature of fostering. Accordingly, a distinctioncan be made between 'exclusive' and 'inclusive' fosterings.It is considered that a conflict exists between popularity ofexclusive fostering and research findings which stress the valueof inclusive fostering. Research is also identifying the contributionwhich social workers can make in the fostering field. But thedesired inputs of training, low caseloads and staff stabilitypose problems for social work management. Finally, the researchfindings discussed in the paper are used to argue that the forthcomingChildren Bill is not only based on false assumptions about thebehaviour of natural parents but will also promote exclusiverather than inclusive fosterings. A plea is made that childwelfare policy be seen in a larger context of social reform     

Stratification in a Small Town

A 5 PER CENT sample of a small town in Illinois (population 1,100) was stratified by using the subjective, reputational, and objective approaches. A rank order correlation test was made on the rankings resulting from these approaches. On the basis of the three concordances found, a fourth ranking was evolved which is offered as a model of procedure for ranking communities of this type. It was found that in using the subjective approach, respondents need to be given categories to choose from in ranking themselves.     

THE IMPACT OF OWI ON BROADCASTING

A MARKED difference between the public opinion situation facinginformation specialists in this war and that in 1917 is thefact that during the last twenty-five years radio has come ofage. Never before have governments had available for use suchan important instrument of propaganda. Has the OWI taken fulladvantage of its potentialities? Mr. Landry was asked to appraiseAmerica's use of this weapon since Pearl Harbor. For ten years the author has been observing American radio fromthe platform of the radio editorship of Variety. He has listenedto and analyzed thousands of radio broadcasts. At present heis director of program writing for CBS and also a member ofthe Writers War Board.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CURRENCY UNIONS

We develop a new instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes. The basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate between two countries are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg—explicitly or de facto—to a third currency, notably that of a main anchor. This component of the exchange rate regime can be used as an IV in regressions of bilateral outcomes. We apply the methodology to study the economic effects of currency unions. The likelihood that two countries independently adopt the currency of the same anchor country is used as an instrument for whether they share a common currency. We find that sharing a common currency enhances trade, increases price comovements, and decreases the comovement of real gross domestic product shocks. ( JEL C3, F3, F4)     

Using a Markov Chain to Construct a Tractable Approximation of an Intractable Probability Distribution

Abstract.  Let π denote an intractable probability distribution that we would like to explore. Suppose that we have a positive recurrent, irreducible Markov chain that satisfies a minorization condition and has π as its invariant measure. We provide a method of using simulations from the Markov chain to construct a statistical estimate of π from which it is straightforward to sample. We show that this estimate is 'strongly consistent' in the sense that the total variation distance between the estimate and π converges to 0 almost surely as the number of simulations grows. Moreover, we use some recently developed asymptotic results to provide guidance as to how much simulation is necessary. Draws from the estimate can be used to approximate features of π or as intelligent starting values for the original Markov chain. We illustrate our methods with two examples.