EXPECTED INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES

While there may have been a Darby-Feldstein effect in the 1960's (interest rates rising by more than expected inflation because of tax considerations), the relationship is so variable that it more likely reflects changing investor confidence in the expected returns to capital assets. In addition, the degree of capacity utilization appears to have a strong influence on short-term interest rates, and there is a statistically significant but quantitatively small liquidity effect from changes in the growth rate of money.     

A NOTE ON THE THEORY OF BLACK MARKETS UNDER PRICE CONTROLS

In a recent article in this Journal Browning and Culbertson (hereafter B-C) extended the theoretical investigation of the predicted effects of maximum price controls to the competitive firm and deduced an excess capacity result. In this note we extend their analysis to derive long-run adjustment paths for the industry for changes in market demand or control prices. The importance of such an extension is that the relevant industry adjustment path is different depending on whether one considers changes in the control price through such mechanisms as cost pass-throughs or through changes in industry demand. To make this extension meaningful, however, we must first consider the link between the firm and market diagrams in B-C's model. Section I is devoted to the analysis. Section II offers some concluding remarks.     

AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR CHILD CARE

Child care denotes any arrangement used by a working parent for care of a child, including self-care. This paper is concerned with the factors that influence the demand for market modes of child care by two parent families with working mothers. An econometric model is specified that relates the demand for child care to price, income, and other economic variables. Because of the discrete nature of the child care decision, the multinomial logit probability model is used to analyze the data. The empirical results suggest that the demand for child care is sensitive to both prices and income.     

The (Parlous) State of German Unions

We trace the profound decline in German unionism over the course of the last three decades. Today, just one in five workers is a union member, and whether this degree of penetration is consistent with a corporatist model built on encompassing unions is now moot. The decline in union membership and density is attributable to external forces that have confronted unions in many countries (such as globalization and compositional changes in the workforce), to some specifically German considerations (such as the transition process in post-communist Eastern Germany), and to sustained intervals of classic insider behavior on the part of German unions. The "correctives" have included mergers between unions, decentralization, and wages that are more responsive to unemployment. At issue is the success of these innovations. For instance, the trend toward decentralization in collective bargaining hinges in part on the health of that other pillar of the dual system of industrial relations, the works council. But works council coverage has also declined, leading some observers to equate decentralization with deregulation. While this conclusion is likely too radical, German unions are at the crossroads. We argue that if they fail to define what they stand for, are unable to increase their presence at the workplace, and continue to lack convincing strategies to deal with contemporary economic and political trends working against them, their decline may become a rout.     

Towards a Dynamic Model of the Psychological Contract

This paper presents a dynamic perspective in which the psychological contract is treated as a structured set of beliefs that are held by individual employees about the mutual obligations of the organization as employer and themselves as employees. This set of beliefs is assumed to produce a state of commitment to the organization in which the employee is willing to accept work roles and tasks offered by the organization, and to carry them out in accordance with certain standards. The dynamic model that is presented can help to explain why the commitment of employees remains relatively stable over time, and why it may suddenly decrease or increase under circumstances that are perceived as critical by the employee. The model assumes that the employee's evaluation of the organization's behavior changes over time, but that the structure of the psychological contract and the associated commitment change only when certain limits are overstepped. This perspective on changes in the psychological contract transforms the concept into a powerful construct that may lead to fruitful research on the dynamics of organization‐employee relationships. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Making Judgements about parenting: The Example of Freeing for Adoption

Correspondence to Malcolm Hill, Senior Lecturer in Social work, University of Glasgow Department of Socail Administration and Soical work, Lilybank House, Bute Gardens, Glasgow G12 8RT. Summary Social workers frequently are involved in assessments aboutparenting. Thes issues are posed in a particularly Sharp formjudgements need to be made which may transfer parental rightsand reponsiblities permanently, as in cases of freeing for adoption.This article draws on a wider evaluation of freeing to identifythe key dimensions of parent child relations which influencedsocial work and work court decisions. In the majority of cases, there were requests to dispense withbirth parents' agreement to adoption. The principal corcumstanceswhich seen to warrant this involved inital neglect and/or poorbonding following by failure to respond to social work helpafter childern were in care. In most instances, the Courts endorsedthe local authorities position and granted freeing order. However,serveral judgments were in parents' favour. This was relatedsometimes to different perspectives on the relationship betweenfamily circumstances and the precise legal grounds for freeing.Also the lengthy precedures involved menat that in a few instancesthe parents had apperaed to imporve thier situation and so strengthenedthe legal case against freeing.     

The Effects of Group Living in a Residential Home for the Elderly

Summary The group-living system of care is becoming increasingly popularin residential homes for the elderly. This study examined purposefulactivity, as measured by engagement, in one such home beforeand after changeover to group living. It was found that engagementwas significantly increased after the changeover. In addition,life satisfaction was increased and orientation unchanged bythe changeover in a small sample of residents. These resultsare interpreted as supportive for the effectiveness of groupliving.