Risk Assessment Using Psychological Profiling Techniques: An Evaluation of Possibilities

Correspondence to John Hopton, 64 Peveril Close, Whitefield, Manchester M45 6NR, UK. Summary In this paper the writer reviews the available literature onpsychological profiling, discusses the differences between thefacet approach to psychological profiling and other techniqueswhich have been labelled ‘psychological profiling’,and discusses the applications of the facet approach. This discussionis followed by a critical evaluation of the potential of thefacet approach as a means of assessing whether or not a personsuffering from mental distress should be regarded as a riskto herself/himself or to other people. Finally, there is a discussionof issues around anti-oppressive and and-discriminatory practice,and the writer concludes that, in the light of recent mentalhealth legislation and mental health policy decisions, the useof psychological profiling as a means of risk assessment couldreduce the number of mentally distressed persons subjected tointrusive surveillance and/or compulsorily admitted to secureaccommodation.     

Race and Electoral Mobilization: White Southerners, 1952-1968

The voting turnout rate among whites in the South has long beenlower than elsewhere, but in recent years the gap has diminished.Neither the earlier difference nor the recent southern increaseis due to the socioeconomic composition of the regions; rather,the increase has been greatest among southerners who believethat the major parties take distinct stands on racial issues.The change in southern turnout is therefore explained by theincreased salience of racial issues, and they can thereforebe expected to remain important in southern politics John L. Hammond is Assistant Professor of Sociology, ColumbiaUniversity, and Research Associate of the Center for PolicyResearch. This article is a revised version of a paper presentedat the American Sociological Association, August 1974. The dataused were collected by the Institute for Social Research andprovided by the Inter-University Consortium for Political Research.The author whises to acknowledge the helpful comments of GordonAdams, Adrienne Asch, Gerald Finch, Anne Foner, Eugene Litwak,Patrick Molloy, George Martin, and Patrick Peppe.     

Postmaterialism in Unresponsive Political Systems: The Canadian Case*

Nous examinons la thèse de Ronald Inglehart selon laquelle le postmatérialisme est un phénomène politique universel qui concerne toute société industrialisée avancée. Après avoir introduit une distinction entre systèmes politiques réactifs et non réactifs, nous proposons que, dans les systèmes réactifs, le clivage matérialiste s'est enracinéà un tel point qu'il triomphait encore du postmatérialisme. Par contre, le postmatérialisme a réussi à se démarquer dans les systèmes non réactifs, ceux où le clivage matérialiste avait toujours été plus faible. Nous soutenons que les données tirées des sondages nationaux tenus lors des élections canadiennes de 1984 et 1997 confirment notre hypothèse sur les effets des systèmes non réactifs. Bien que le Canada soit l'objet principal de notre analyse, dans la conclusion nous nous penchons sur des facteurs qui pourraient expliquer les différences dans le postmatérialisme aux niveaux provincial et international. This article disputes Inglehart's claim that postmaterialism is a uniform political phenomenon that transcends differences between advanced industrial societies. We distinguish responsive from unresponsive political systems and argue that, in responsive systems, the materialist cleavage became so deeply entrenched that postmaterialism could not vie for dominance. In contrast, postmaterialism has become more salient than materialism in unresponsive systems, where the materialist cleavage was weaker to begin with. We argue that data from the Canadian National Election Surveys of 1984 and 1997 are consistent with our prediction about the effect of unresponsiveness. Differences within the Canadian electorate became weaker for materialist issues but more pronounced for postmate‐rialist issues between 1984 and 1997. Although our empirical analysis focusses on Canada, we conclude by speculating about the causes of cross‐provincial and cross‐national variations in postmaterialism.     

TWO TO TANGO? GENDER DIFFERENCES IN THE DECISIONS TO PUBLISH AND COAUTHOR

The existence of old boy networks has long been postulated as a possible explanation for the presence of gender differences in market outcomes but with little empirical support because of the difficulty of measuring network access. This article exploits the unique attributes of academic labor markets and detailed data on individuals and jobs for PhD economists over nearly four decades. The results suggest that networks impact the joint decision to publish and coauthor, that these network effects differ by gender, and that gender differences in network access change over time as women become more well represented in a profession. (JEL J44 , J77 , J24 )     

THE USEFULNESS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN CANADA: A NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS

We examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various subcategories of consumer spending, even when controlling for other macroeconomic variables. We find, however, that the forecasting ability of the regional indices is somewhat weaker when compared to that of the national ICA. Overall, our results reconfirm that consumer confidence is a reliable predictor of household spending in Canada. (JEL C53 , E21 )     

BATTER UP! MORAL HAZARD AND THE EFFECTS OF THE DESIGNATED HITTER RULE ON HIT BATSMEN

American League batters have been hit by pitches 10% to 15% more frequently than National League batters since the designated hitter rule was introduced in 1973. This evidence is consistent with the idea that the American League s adoption of the designated hitter rule created a classic moral hazard problem. Because they are not required to appear at the plate, American League pitchers can throw at opposing hitters with greater impunity (i.e., at lower cost) than National League pitchers who must take their turns at bat and, hence, bear more of the costs of their own actions. (JEL D81, J28)     

The Urban Programme: a report on Some Programme Funded Projects

Summary The paper reports on a questionnaire survey of a sample of projectsfunded by the Urban Programme. Six of the most frequently fundedproject types were surveyed, and questionnaires sent to localauthorities and voluntary agencies running the projects. Four main areas of investigation are reported—the aimsand achievements of projects and the relationship of projectaims to programme aims; the origins and development of projects;the testing of some claims made of the Urban Programme; anda testing of local authority and voluntary agency reactionsto the Urban Programme in general. Most projects were aimed as much at improving access to andinformation about other services, as they were with providinga direct service. Whilst most projects were rated as successful,the notion of what constituted success varied considerably. More than a half of all projects were modified from the originalaims and structure during the course of development and morethan two-thirds would be altered in more than detail were applicationfor urban aid to be made anew. Of the four ‘claims’ about the Urban Programme testedin the survey, two were found to be largely substantiated-thatthe programme has a ‘multiplier’ effect, and thatone of the major areas of benefit of the programme lies in thespin-offs it produces by way of experience gained and lessonslearned. The two others were not substantiated—that programmefunding enables rapid implementation of projects, and that theprogramme provides the only possible source of funding for suchprojects, which would otherwise not be established