An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2—Hazard Modeling

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing “best-case” and “worst-case” scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model.     

Relationships Among Middle‐School Adolescents' Vocational Skills,Motivational Approaches,and Interests

This study examined gender differences in relationships among vocational skills, motivational approaches, and same‐gender and cross‐gender interests for urban adolescents. Results showed gender differences in interests, with males having greater Realistic interests and females having greater Artistic and Social interests, based on Holland's (1997) theory of interest types. Structural equation modeling revealed that males tended to approach the occupational world with assertiveness, the desire to create opportunities, and the use of instrumental support. Females tended to approach the occupational world by being adaptable, capitalizing on their skills and abilities, actively preparing themselves for the future, exploring options, and using emotional support. Recommendations for career development practice are provided.     

Transvestophilia and gynemimesis: Performative strategies and feminist theory

ABSTRACT

This article considers cross-dressing within feminist and cultural theory from the perspective of performance. It offers a close reading of the materiality of particular examples of transvestism, mostly drawn from the Australian context. The specificity of these performances reveals that bodies can both reproduce and fail to comply with discursive regimes of gender.     

"Having it Ally ": Popular Television (Post-)Feminism

This article analyzes the impact of the built environment on the narrative development of two contemporary television series, 24 (2001–2010) and Alias (2001–2006). The analysis begins with the primary sets used in 24 and Alias, paying particular attention to the ways that these sets establish the series within the genre of espionage dramas, and to the ways that they establish a particular set of gender relationships. This is followed by an examination of broader spatial concepts, showing how the two series negotiate the gendered boundaries between the domestic sphere and the professional sphere. By highlighting the connections between architecture, space, and gender in these series, this essay will demonstrate how the analysis of on-screen spaces can reveal the ideologies of individual media texts and the genres of which they are a part.     

Canadian-Jewish Seniors: Marriage/Cohabitation After Age 65

This is an exploratory qualitative study of 10 seniors (5 men and 5 women), who remarried or lived together after the age of 65. They were all Jewish, lived in Toronto, Canada, and had been married previously. The subjects were interviewed in their own homes, using a questionnaire. The study attempts to explore the pathways to recoupling, how the partners met, the differences between the first and second partners, and the major issues faced by the subjects in moving into a new relationship. The results in this article are significantly presented through the words of the respondents. This gives the reader the flavor of what is involved in senior relationships. The conclusions summarize the major findings of the study, and make suggestions for further research. We focus on implications for health and wellbeing from our findings.     

The future for Meals on Wheels? Reviewing innovative approaches to meal provision for ageing populations

Winterton R, Warburton J, Oppenheimer M. The future for Meals on Wheels? Reviewing innovative approaches to meal provision for ageing populations The global phenomenon of population ageing is impacting on how community care is delivered, and a key component of health and social care services for the frail elderly is Meals on Wheels (MOW), a service that has traditionally encompassed delivering meals to older people in their homes. However, aspects of this conceptualisation of MOW are being redefined in order to address challenges posed by tightening global financial contexts, a reliance on volunteers and increasing social isolation among ageing populations. Through a review of the literature and websites from selected countries (UK, USA, Canada, Australia), this article explores and critically evaluates models of MOW delivery addressing these challenges. Findings suggest that MOW services are utilising a marketised approach, moving outside of the home and incorporating diverse volunteer roles. These findings demonstrate how services such as MOW can develop sustainable approaches to service delivery in a contemporary context. Key Practitioner Message: ?A review of innovative MOW highlights service models of broader applicability;?Varied delivery models and more diverse volunteer roles appeal to new sources of volunteers;?Research into the development of sustainable models with positive client social outcomes is now required.     

The Power of Stories: Using Narrative for Interdisciplinary Learning in Health and Social Care

This paper discusses the aims, process and outcomes of an interdisciplinary workshop day held for undergraduate students from Social Work, Mental Health Nursing, Adult Nursing, Midwifery and Occupational Therapy courses. The day's activities focused on mental health and were based on the use of service user narrative within three different workshops. The feedback from the students showed that the day was relevant to the curriculum that they were engaged in; allowed them to interact with and explore the perspectives of different professional groups; assisted them in understanding the lived experience of mental health difficulties; offered them the opportunity to consider implications for practice; was enjoyable and added ‘value’.