Application of a Regional Hurricane Wind Risk Forecasting Model for Wood-Frame Houses

Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk-the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e.g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed.     

Young people,social change and the negotiation of moral authority

This paper presents some of the main findings of the study ‘Youth values: identity, diversity and social change’, focusing on the ways in which young people aged between 11 and 16 negotiate moral authority. It begins by discussing young people's perceptions of social change, identifying narratives of both progress and decline. The structure of young people's values are then briefly described, including differences relating to gender, location, social class and age. The factors that contribute to the legitimacy of moral authority in young people's eyes are explored through young people's accounts of school discipline, bullying, parenting and media violence. The paper draws on a range of data sources including questionnaires, focus group discussions, individual interviews and research assignments in which young people undertook their own interviews with adults. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Work stress and attentional difficulties: An initial study on burnout and cognitive failures

Professional burnout is a stress-related disorder, having mental exhaustion due to work stress as its most important characteristic. Burned out individuals also often complain about attentional problems. However, it is currently not clear whether such complaints are based on true cognitive deficits or whether they merely reflect the way burned out individuals rate their own cognitive performance. To confirm the cognitive complaints we used a cognitive failure questionnaire (CFQ) to assess the level of self-reported attentional difficulties in daily life. We also measured performance on tasks of sustained attention and response inhibition (the SART and the Bourdon-Wiersma Test). We compared three groups: (1) a group of 'burned out' individuals (n=13) who stopped working due to their symptoms and sought professional treatment; (2) teachers at a vocational training institute (n=16) who reported high levels of burnout symptoms but continued to work; and (3) teachers from the same institute (n=14) who reported no burnout symptoms. The level of burnout symptoms was found to be significantly related to the number of cognitive failures in daily life, and to inhibition errors and performance variability in the attentional tasks. To our knowledge, explicit tests of objective cognitive deficits in burned out individuals have not been conducted before. Consequently, this is the first study to indicate that burnout is associated with difficulties in voluntary control over attention and that the level of such difficulties varies with the severity of burnout symptoms.     

Informal Labor and Social Relations in Northern Malawi: The Theoretical Challenges and Implications of Ganyu Labor for Food Security*

Abstract Food insecurity is a problem faced by smallholder farmers in Malawi. In any given year between 70 and 85 percent of households run out of food stocks several months prior to the next harvest. Once food stocks are depleted many households obtain food by doing ganyu, a type of piecework labor. Limited research has been carried out on ganyu. This paper uses qualitative data to examine ganyu in relation to food security in one area of northern Malawi. Using the livelihoods framework, I argue that the most common form of ganyu is both a livelihood strategy and a measure of vulnerability, rather than a type of social capital as suggested by other authors. High reliance on ganyu points to increased social stratification related to a rise in smallholder tobacco production. Women in female‐headed households appear to rely more on ganyu than in married households. Policy implications of these findings are considered.     

什么因素影响了工作流动--在个人工作生涯中的时间

一个人是否更换工作,何时更换工作;是否得到晋升,何时得到晋升,这依赖于什么呢? 除了我们在上一期中谈到的机会结构方面的影响外,大多数有关工作流动的社会学研究,都关注时间对个人职业生涯过程的影响.     

Estimating the order of a hidden markov model

While the estimation of the parameters of a hidden Markov model has been studied extensively, the consistent estimation of the number of hidden states is still an unsolved problem. The AIC and BIC methods are used most commonly, but their use in this context has not been justified theoretically. The author shows that for many common models, the penalized minimum‐distance method yields a consistent estimate of the number of hidden states in a stationary hidden Markov model. In addition to addressing the identifiability issues, she applies her method to a multiple sclerosis data set and assesses its performance via simulation.