Modernization and the Status of the Aged in China: Decline or Equalization?*

Most models of modernization propose that the status of the aged declines with technological and economic development. These models usually conceptualize the lowered status of the aged as a residual or latent consequence of modernization. Rarely do they address age stratification as a political issue, and they fail to differentiate between subgroups of the aged. We compare accounts of the cultural and structural context of the aged before and after China's socialist revolution, giving particular attention to the role of the family, the state, and technological factors in social change. Technological development and urbanization have not been extensive, and a decline in the traditional authority of the aged has paralleled educational advances and a demographic transition. Government family policies and China's labor-intensive economy facilitate the interdependence of age groups and sex roles. These observations suggest current models of the status of the aged should be revised to incorporate conceptualizations of age and sexual stratification and the role of governmental policies in directing social change.     

Aging in a women's club

This is a case study of the Employed Girls Society, a voluntary association which was organized in 1929 as a training vehicle for young working women and which functions today as an old age support system. A vestige of the past, the EGS is also an omen of the future; current demographic and economic trends portend a time when clubs like the EGS will be required, more and more, to meet the needs of a burgeoning aged population.     

A decision support system for banks

Just recently, information systems with rather unique characteristics have begun to emerge. These systems usually referred to as Decision Support Systems, feature decision models, a data base and the decision maker as subsystems and are specifically oriented to supporting decision making. This article examines Decision Support Systems and their application to banks.     

Evaluation of curricula in higher education: challenges for evaluators

Evaluation of teaching at universities is traditionally realized in terms of student ratings. Curriculum evaluation is rarely done in a systematic manner. More often, the emphasis is placed on a particular aspect, which is only of little help in terms of modifying education. A very prominent example is that of medical education. Here, evaluations of curricula primarily focus on new curricula by contrasting them to traditional ones. The article at hand deals with a different evaluation approach, in which five phases have to be considered and contrasting results to other teaching formats are not the main focus. In this article, the authors concentrate on the first phase (baseline evaluation) of the systematic evaluation of a medical curriculum. They describe several challenges of such an evaluation approach and illustrate the strategies used to overcome them. In addition, associated relevant empirical findings from this evaluation study are presented.     

An improved comorbidity summary score for measuring disease burden and predicting mortality with applications to two national cohorts

Abstract

Research involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score.     

Handling cause of death in equivocal cases using the em algorithm

The statistical analysis of animal bioassays fore carcinogenicity often involves utilizing the cause of death of each animal. There is considerable disagreement among veterinary pathologists as to the reliability of cause of death information. Recent recommendations for assigning cause of death in animal studies have allowed for uncertainty on the part of the pathologist. This has given rise to data that contain acknowledged equivocal cases with respect to cause of death. The present paper proposes a method for incorporating these equiYocal cases into an existing estimation procedure that requires distinguishing between tumors that caused death and those that did not.     

The Appropriateness of Some Common Procedures for Testing the Equality of Two Independent Binomial Populations

For testing the equality of two independent binomial populations the Fisher exact test and the chi-squared test with Yates's continuity correction are often suggested for small and intermediate size samples. The use of these tests is inappropriate in that they are extremely conservative. In this article we demonstrate that, even for small samples, the uncorrected chi-squared test (i.e., the Pearson chi-squared test) and the two-independent-sample t test are robust in that their actual significance levels are usually close to or smaller than the nominal levels. We encourage the use of these latter two tests.     

Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analyses: Report of an Expert Workshop

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.     

The Nominal Group: A New Tool for Making Social Work Education Relevant

This article describes the nominal group technique and delineates the application of the approach to identifying specific course topics and emphases sought by students enrolling in undergraduate and graduate social work courses.