Authors Index Volume 21 (2002)

Authors Index

Authors Index Volume 21 (2002)     

Disaggregation in population forecasting: do we need it? And how to do it simply

"We have described a method for reducing the dimensionality of the forecasting problem by parsimoniously modeling the evolution over time of the age schedules of vital rates. This method steers a middle course between forecasting aggregates and forecasting individual age specific rates: we reduce the problem to forecasting a single parameter for fertility and another one for mortality. We have described a number of refinements and extensions of those basic methods, which preserve their underlying structure and simplicity. In particular, we show how one can fit the model more simply, incorporate lower bounds to the forecasts of rates, disaggregate by sex or race, and prepare integrated forecasts of rates for a collection of regions. We also discuss alternate approaches to forecasting the estimated indices of fertility and mortality, including state-space methods. These many versions of the basic method have yielded remarkably similar results." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Methods of evaluating child welfare in Indian country: an illustration

The poor quality and quantity of data collected in tribal communities today reflects a lack of true community participation and commitment. This is especially problematic for evaluation studies, in which the needs and desires of the community should be the central focus. This challenge can be met by emphasizing indigenous methods and voice. The authors provide an illustration of how to do this.     

Urban American Indian/Alaskan Natives compared to non-Indians in out-of-home care

Historically, American Indian/Alaskan Native (AI/AN) children have been disproportionately represented in the foster care system. In this study, nationally representative child welfare data from October 1999 was used to compare urban AI/AN children to non-Indian children placed into out-of-home care. Compared to non-Indian children, urban AI/AN children were older, were more often male, came from poorer homes, and were more frequently placed into group homes/ residential placements. Urban AI/AN caregivers had a greater prevalence of alcohol abuse and mental health problems compared with non-Indian caregivers.     

Evaluation of free to grow: head start partnerships to promote substance-free communities

Free to Grow: Head Start Partnerships to Promote Substance-free Communities (FTG) was a national initiative in which local Head Start (HS) agencies, in partnership with other community organizations, implemented a mix of evidence-based family-strengthening and community-strengthening strategies. The evaluation of FTG used a quasi-experimental design to compare 14 communities that participated in the FTG intervention with 14 matched comparison communities. Telephone surveys were conducted with two cohorts of the primary caregivers of children in HS at baseline and then annually for 2 years. The survey was also administered to repeated cross-sectional samples of primary caregivers of young children who were not enrolled in HS. No consistent evidence was found in changes in family functioning or neighborhood conditions when the 14 FTG sites were compared to 14 matched sites. However, caregivers of young children who were not in HS in three high-implementing FTG sites showed evidence of improvements in neighborhood organization, neighborhood norms against substance abuse, and child disciplinary practices. Results provide highly limited support for the concept that family and neighborhood conditions that are likely to affect child development and well-being can be changed through organized efforts implemented by local HS programs.     

Personal and Aggregate Unemployment and Psychological Symptoms

Four different types of individual-level unemployment experiences were studied in relation to psychological symptoms: (1) current unemployment following a recent involuntary job loss, (2) unemployment among students or homemakers, (3) reemployment after recent job loss, and (4) either voluntary or long-term (greater than 6 months) unemployment. Aggregate unemployment (the prevailing rate in the surveyed community) was also studied, both alone and in interaction with each of the four individual-level unemployment conditions. These five variables were each related positively to psychological symptoms, whether measured as a continuous variable or as a dichotomous variable simulating a case/non- case split, and controlling for the usual demographic variables and various other stressful life events. Little evidence was found for interactions of the unemployment conditions with aggregate unemployment or with potential moderators. A small panel study provided a partial longitudinal check for several of these cross-sectional findings. The findings are discussed in terms of public policy options.