The historical decline of fertility in Eastern Europe

I test the hypothesis that the growth of autonomy was the factor responsible for the decline of marital fertility in eight Eastern European countries. By growth of autonomy I mean increased control over one's political, personal, religious, economic and reproductive life. This increased control was manifested in revolutions, democratic political reforms, nationalist movements and declining marital fertility. The political reforms were the result of the growth of autonomy but they also accelerated the dissemination of these new ideas among the populace contributing to further growth of autonomy. My hypothesis is generally supported by the historical data.     

Zusammenfassungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung German translations by Monika Lütke-Daldrup.     

A modified random-effect procedure for combining risk difference in sets of 2×2 tables from clinical trials

Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however, the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual data and the differences among the results. This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University.     

The peripheral position of sex in a psychotherapy: An illustrative case of a mirror transference

Understanding the role of sexualization in a depressed patient gives us the opportunity to re-examine the place of sexual activity in psychopathology. The self psychological concept of the mirror transference is used to explain the therapist's activity in the case illustration.     

Ideologies about work: An exploratory study

This paper focuses upon an as yet under-explored factor believed to underlie most managerial and organizational behavior variables—work ideology. Work ideologies are surveyed for several convenience samples of students and managers to show their ability to be studied and that patterned differences may be discovered. In addition, the historical origins and meanings of four major work ideologies are discussed.     

Lines through the origin—is NO INT the answer?

The fitting of a straight line that must pass through (0, 0) is a frequently encountered application of linear regression. Many computer packages provide a least-squares option sometimes identified as NO INT, or even NOINT, or as ‘suppressing the intercept’. Often these procedures are invalid or do not correspond to the most suitable model. This paper questions the least-squares-line approach and suggests some alternatives. Two measures are proposed for comparing the fit of alternative models.     

LENGTH-BIASING, CHARACTERIZATIONS OF LAWS AND THE MOMENT PROBLEM

A positive random variable X with a finite mean has an induced length-biased law represented by Y, and Y is stochastically larger than X. An independent uniform random contraction of Y, UY, has the same law as X if and only if the latter is exponential. This property is extended to non-uniform contractions and a more general notion of length-biasing. The distributional equality of X and W leads to a functional equation for the moment function of X, which has either Infinitely many solutions or none. When U is constant, X can have a log-normal law, but it can also have laws with the same moment sequence as this log-nod law. The case where U has a certain beta, or generalized beta, law give t3 characterizations of generalized gamma laws, or to products of independent copies of them. This occurs even when these laws are not determined by their moment sequences.