For Better or For Worse? State-Level Marital Formation and Risk Sharing

Why do some U.S. states have higher levels of marital formation than others? This paper introduces an economic model wherein a state’s representative individual may choose to marry in order to diversify his or her idiosyncratic income risk. The paper demonstrates that such a diversification motive is enhanced for some utility functions when a state’s level of undiversifiable risk becomes larger, and when a state’s initial income is lower. A test of the model’s predictions, using cross-sectional data for the 50 U.S. states, provides some suggestive evidence for a risk sharing motive in marriage formation and joint spouse labor participation.     

Weberian perspectives on science,technology and the economy

Several disciplines have contributed to the understanding of the relationship between science, technology, and economic change. Weber's perspective on this relationship, however, has not been properly explored. In the first part of this paper, we give an account of Weber's perspective. In the second part, we critically assess Weber's ideas, indicating those that are useful and those that deserve to be abandoned. We also confront a revised Weberian perspective with those of the main contemporary competitors, the key ideas of economists and economic historians on one side and social constructivists on the other. We conclude that a Weberian comparative-historical approach compares favourably with these competitors, and suggest where his approach still requires further work.     

Student and Counselor Perceptions of Career Counselor Work Activities in a Community College

This study examined whether differences exist between student and counselor perceptions of work activities performed by the latter group in a large Southern California community college. Participants responded to a 40-item questionnaire indicating whether tasks were actually performed, and whether they ought be performed by counselors when providing career guidance. Chi-square with Yates's correction for continuity and Fisher's Exact Test were used to analyze the data. Statistically significant results indicated that students did not believe that counselors were actually performing the majority of tasks commonly and ideally associated with career counseling services. Although students and counselors agreed on ideal career counselor work activities, counselor responses revealed no difference between their actual and ideal duties.     

“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.     

For whom the bell tolls: The institutionalization of homeless families in america

A peek through the doors of New York City's Emergency Assistance Unit (EAU), the entryway into the City's family shelter system, presents a shocking snapshot of life for the poorest of America's welfare families: the homeless. Burgeoning with young single mothers and children sitting on floors and sleeping in chairs as they wait for someone to send them on to temporary shelter, the EAU offers a vivid example of the overburdened institutions of support on which poor families depend daily.     

Using Average Lifetime Dose Rate for Intermittent Exposures to Carcinogens

The effect of using the average dose rate over a lifetime as a representative measure of exposure to carcinogens is investigated by comparing the true theoretical multistage intermittent-dosing lifetime low-dose excess risk to the theoretical multistage continuous-dosing lifetime risk corresponding to the average lifetime dose rate. It is concluded that low-dose risk estimates based on the average lifetime dose rate may overestimate the true risk by several orders of magnitude, but that they never underestimate the true risk by more than a factor of k/r, where k is the total number of stages in the multistage model and r is the number of stages that are dose-related.