The liquidity crisis of German open-end real estate funds and their impact on optimal asset allocation in retirement

In course of the recent turmoil in the financial markets, several open-end real estate funds froze redemption of their units, resulting in unanticipated and unprecedented liquidity and performance shocks for investors. Against this background, we analyze the long- and short-term risk and return profiles of open-end real estate funds and their role in efficient multi-asset retirement portfolios. To this end, we introduce the Retirement Efficient Frontier, describing those investment strategies that minimize the lifetime probability of ruin for specific levels of periodic withdrawals from a given retirement wealth. We find that for low to moderate periodic withdrawals, efficient portfolios consist of up to 85% real estate fund investments in case fund units are continuously redeemable. Moreover we show that even if there is a monthly probability of 2.5% that redemption of fund units is temporarily suspended, the allocation into real estate funds in risk-efficient portfolios is only slightly affected. Yet, if funds additionally face a high risk of having to depreciate their property portfolio during a liquidity crisis, their share in efficient retirement portfolios is reduced significantly.     

The Response of Social Work to the Depression,by Jacob Fisher. Schenkman Publishing Co., Cambridge,Mass., and G. K. Hall and Co., Boston, 1980. $23.95.266 Pp.

Abstract

This article presents an innovative refinement in the use of group process records for educational purposes, reviews the history of Rothman's Committee for the Preparation of Teaching Materials, and discusses the Committee's development of a comprehensive framework for teaching records. The teaching record fosters student attentiveness to practice context and complexities, regard for ongoing self-evaluation, and interest in cooperative learning. Teaching records also provide a structure for integrative learning through the identification, elucidation, linkage, and illustration of practice concepts and principles. The five key parts of the teaching record—major teaching themes, overview of group characteristics, group process record, teaching points, and teaching strategies—are described, and excerpts from an illustrative teaching record of a session with nursing home residents are presented.     

The smell of distance: Wallace Stegner’s definition of western non-fiction

Wallace Stegner has argued that land, scale, and aridness are defining characteristics of both the American West and writings about the West. Stegner’s definition is analyzed using his own works and Mark Twain’s Roughing It.     

Setting goals in a professional service firm

Given the complex structure and rapid rate of change of today's society, it is critically important that a professional service firm properly set and periodically monitor its goals. This article describes how one consultant organization has formalized this process. The experience has led to important modifications of their goals. Perhaps a greater benefit is that the process of formalization has been a substantial aid in identifying and sensitizing individuals to crucial issues, in generating and evaluating alternatives, in isolating and resolving conflicts of judgement and priorities, and in communicating among members of the management of the firm concerned.     

Objectivity and Narrative in Contemporary Reporting: A Formal Analysis

Traditionally, Americans have held the ideal that newspapers should transmit knowledge to readers by giving “objective” accounts of official events. This article argues that many news stories have extended objectivity through the use of narrative. Stories attempt to evoke feelings in the reader by drawing on a shared stock of knowledge held by members of society through the use of narrative storytelling techniques rather than attempting to transmit neutral information through the form of objectivity.     

Model Averaging Using the Kullback Information Criterion in Estimating Effective Doses for Microbial Infection and Illness

Since the National Food Safety Initiative of 1997, risk assessment has been an important issue in food safety areas. Microbial risk assessment is a systematic process for describing and quantifying a potential to cause adverse health effects associated with exposure to microorganisms. Various dose-response models for estimating microbial risks have been investigated. We have considered four two-parameter models and four three-parameter models in order to evaluate variability among the models for microbial risk assessment using infectivity and illness data from studies with human volunteers exposed to a variety of microbial pathogens. Model variability is measured in terms of estimated ED01s and ED10s, with the view that these effective dose levels correspond to the lower and upper limits of the 1% to 10% risk range generally recommended for establishing benchmark doses in risk assessment. Parameters of the statistical models are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. In this article a weighted average of effective dose estimates from eight two- and three-parameter dose-response models, with weights determined by the Kullback information criterion, is proposed to address model uncertainties in microbial risk assessment. The proposed procedures for incorporating model uncertainties and making inferences are illustrated with human infection/illness dose-response data sets.     

The Boom‐Bust‐Recovery Cycle: Dynamics of Change in Community Satisfaction and Social Integration in Delta,Utah*

Abstract To better understand the long‐term effects of rapid boom growth, we reexamine four subjective indicators of community satisfaction and social integration in Delta, Utah, that were originally analyzed by Brown, Geertsen, and Krannich in 1989. With 24 years of longitudinal data, we find that within approximately a decade of the boom period three of the four indicators returned to or exceeded pre‐boom levels. We argue that we need to modify our theories and vocabulary regarding boomtowns to account for a “boom‐bust‐recovery cycle” that better takes into consideration the dynamic nature of communities and their residents and how they subjectively adjust to shifts in objective conditions.