Is there a future for social forecasting?

This paper examines the recent rise of, and interest in social forecasting. It reviews the various ways in which social forecasts are attempted: particularly through the techniques of modelling which have been taken from, and developed beyond the models used by the basic science and technologies. It then describes the shifts in thinking emerging from different beliefs and attitudes which seem to portend a new ideology in our global society. Finally the paper briefly addresses the crucial issue known as the ‘World Problematique’ and evaluates the role that social forecasting has to play in devising possible solutions, particularly from the viewpoint of industry, trade and commerce.     

我国林业工程项目管理研究

以大工程带动大发展是我国实现林业跨越式发展的重大战略决策。林业项目单位是工程的主要参与者 ,其管理水平高下直接关系到项目成败。该文通过总结现代项目管理理念 ,结合林业工程项目管理的现状和特点 ,提出林业工程项目管理系统 ,并指出了现代项目管理理念和方法是提高林业项目管理水平的有效途径。     

Production knowledge and its impact on the mechanisms of governance

A framework is developed outlining how production knowledge and capabilities influence firm boundaries by impacting the transaction costs of markets and hierarchies. A central implication of the framework is that at lower levels of these capabilities the transaction costs of markets decline at a faster rate than the costs of hierarchy, while at higher levels of these capabilities the transaction costs of hierarchy decline at a faster rate than the costs of markets. The discriminating role of production capabilities arises because markets and hierarchies utilize different types of control (prices and output control versus authority and behavior control), and hence require different levels of knowledge to be efficient. The analysis suggests firms often maintain some production knowledge when contracting for various inputs since it not only reduces transactional hazards in markets, but also because in comparative institutional terms, initial gains in knowledge make markets more efficient than internal organization. In addition, the analysis suggests that there would be a U shaped relationship between the propensity to integrate vertically and the extent of production capabilities as opposed to a monotonically increasing relationship. I find support for the U shaped relationship in a cross sectional sample of 1553 manufacturing firms.     

Impact of product proliferation on the reverse supply chain

Product variety is one of the most important advantages in highly competitive markets. However, excessive product proliferation's reducing the profit margin has caused increased focus on developing a management method for maximal profit. In a closed-loop supply chain, product proliferation affects the reverse supply chain as well as the forward supply chain. Although increasing the number of product types can better satisfy diverse customer needs, complexity in the product recycling, remanufacturing, and resale processes may erode a firm's overall profits. In this study, we develop a mathematical model for analyzing a capacitated reverse supply chain consisting of a single manufacturer and multiple retailers. We reveal closed-form solutions for the optimal batch size and maximal profit, and discuss managerial insights into how the number of products and other factors can affect both batch size and profit. Finally, we investigate the relationship between product proliferation and the choice of logistics strategy.     

Book reviews and books received

Abstract

In the field of stress research it is often assumed that social support as well as coping behaviour contributes to feelings of health and well-being. However, until now it has not been altogether clear whether a main-effect model or a buffer model was the more appropriate for explaining the role of these factors in response to stressful situations. In this paper, a research project is described in which both the direct and indirect effects of social support and coping were studied in the work situation of nurses. The results offer more support for a main-effect model than for a buffer or moderating-effect model, especially with regard to the coping strategies ‘active problem-solving’ and ‘palliative behaviour’. However, some moderating effects on nurses‘ reactions to their work situation were found for social support and for ‘comforting cognitions’ as a coping strategy.     

Rolling horizon master production schedule performance: A policy analysis

In this paper, a simulation experiment has been developed to examine the combined influence of the design, inventory and environmental factors on the cost performance of a rolling horizon master production schedule. Specifically, a 2 5 factorial design was used to examine the effects associated with three rolling schedule design policies, one inventory policy and one environmental condition of forecast error on MPS cost performance. The study was based on actual data from a paint company. Results suggest that the choice of appropriate lot-size and inventory policies have a significant influence on MPS costs and that there are indeed important interactions between these policies and other design factors of a rolling schedule.     

A decomposition technique for quantifying real process performance

A decomposition technique for quantifying the impacts of changes in product mix and process performance on aggregate process-related indicators is presented. Through application of the technique, the real performance of a process can be quantified. Changes in real performance over time can be monitored to provide useful information for process evaluation and production planning. Two case studies, one related to the aggregate defective rate for an assembly line of an integrated circuit fabrication plant and the other to the aggregate inventory turnover for a tyre distribution company, are presented to illustrate the application of the technique.     

Dynamic selection of dispatching rules for job shop scheduling

Although the academic contribution to job shop scheduling is abundant, its impact on practice has been minimal. The most preferred approach to job shop scheduling in the industry is dispatching rules. A major criticism against dispatching rules is that there is no single universal rule. The effective choice of dispatching rules depends on the scheduling criterion and existing job shop conditions. In this paper, the authors have proposed a scheduling method based on the analytic hierarchy process, that dynamically selects the most appropriate dispatching rule from several candidate rules. The selection is based on the existing job shop conditions. This method is applied to two formal job shop problems, and the results for single dispatching rules are inferior to the method proposed in this paper.     

Resource smoothing: A cost minimization approach

From the available literature, there seems to be no defined approach to resource smoothing exercise except those attempted by Weist (1967, Management Science, 13, B359-B377) and Burgess and Killebrew (1962, Journal of Industrial Engineering, 13, 76-83). The aim of the smoothing exercise is to achieve optimal resource usage by avoiding high peaks and deep valleys in the project resource profile. The general approach has always been to move some activities with floats in the high peak regions to be started at a later date, and as this is done, the valleys will be filled to smooth the resource profile subject of course to time constraint. If this approach is followed as it is, it would be difficult to determine optimality especially when many resources are involved. A cost minimization approach is envisaged in the present study with no limitation on the number of resource inputs. In a situation where the resources are assumed to have the same value, the cost assigned to each of them should be similar. The method follows the general concept but with a difference; cost of the activity in question is considered. The exercise is continued until all the floats are exhausted. The optimum result would then be the one with the minimum cost profile. From examples used for the evaluation, the results obtained are comparable to those of the above two researchers, and some with better results in the majority of cases.     

How to make e-Procurement viable for SME suppliers

Due to their common role as suppliers, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are especially challenged by today's turbulent business conditions. In order to meet this challenge, short-term WWW-based enterprise cooperations are regarded as an appropriate way to enhance the competitive strength of SMEs. Hence, the Institute of Machine Tools and Industrial Management (IWB) operates three so-called competence networks for engineering (www.engineering-net.de), rapid prototyping (www.rp-net.de) and manufacturing (www.produktionsnetz.de) services. For the purpose of an applied research project, more than 80 participating SME suppliers have been included in these specialized virtual markets, which are based on the core competencies of the cooperating SMEs. Additionally, the platform (www.virtueller-markt.de) enables customers to configure their specific supply chains via the above-mentioned competence networks. The presented paper depicts how to establish and operate these competence networks as well as how to configure supply chains via these virtual markets.