The future for wool

Single dimensional projections are inadequate to determine what the future holds. A wide variety of economic, technological and social changes will influence the future environment for wool and other fibres. In these circumstances, and bearing in mind that, for planning purposes, strategic assumptions are often markedly superior to firm predictions, a set of alternative scenarios is a useful instrument. Consideration of some brief scenarios leads to the conclusion that wool's future depends, in no small measure, upon the actions of the wool-growing industry and governments of wool exporting countries.     

Correction to: Comparison of joint control schemes for multivariate normal i.i.d. output

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - In the original paper, we incorrectly stated that...     

Bayesian analysis of the generalized gamma distribution using non-informative priors

The Generalized gamma (GG) distribution plays an important role in statistical analysis. For this distribution, we derive non-informative priors using formal rules, such as Jeffreys prior, maximal data information prior and reference priors. We have shown that these most popular formal rules with natural ordering of parameters, lead to priors with improper posteriors. This problem is overcome by considering a prior averaging approach discussed in Berger et al. [Overall objective priors. Bayesian Analysis. 2015;10(1):189–221]. The obtained hybrid Jeffreys-reference prior is invariant under one-to-one transformations and yields a proper posterior distribution. We obtained good frequentist properties of the proposed prior using a detailed simulation study. Finally, an analysis of the maximum annual discharge of the river Rhine at Lobith is presented.     

An evaluation of common methods for dichotomization of continuous variables to discriminate disease status

Dichotomization of continuous variables to discriminate a dichotomous outcome is often useful in statistical applications. If a true threshold for a continuous variable exists, the challenge is identifying it. This paper examines common methods for dichotomization to identify which ones recover a true threshold. We provide mathematical and numeric proofs demonstrating that maximizing the odds ratio, Youden’s statistic, Gini Index, chi-square statistic, relative risk and kappa statistic all theoretically recover a true threshold. A simulation study evaluating the ability of these statistics to recover a threshold when sampling from a population indicates that maximizing the chi-square statistic and Gini Index have the smallest bias and variability when the probability of being larger than the threshold is small while maximizing Kappa or Youden’s statistics is best when this probability is larger. Maximizing odds ratio is the most variable and biased of the methods.     

The satisfaction of non-family employees with High Involvement HR practices: evidence from family SMEs

Most family businesses employ more non-family employees than family employees, making them a crucial resource for family small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). Thus, family SMEs must pay particular attention to developmental needs of such employees. However, there is limited empirical knowledge concerning how Family SMEs can manage and develop their non-family employees. Drawing on organizational justice theory, this study set out to investigate how and why non-family employees are satisfied with the High Involvement HR practices (HIHRPs) adopted by family SMEs. Empirical evidence was drawn from the experiences of 16 non-family employees from six SME family-owned enterprises. Findings suggest that a balance between formal and informal HIHRPs is need among family SMEs for non-family employees to be satisfied with them. Moreover, satisfaction with both formal and informal HIHRPs can encourage non-family employees’ engagement with the enterprise and the development of their skills and capabilities. Findings also suggest that the satisfaction with HIHRPs varies with respect to the organizational positioning of non-family employees. Our findings make a valuable and timely contribution to the human resource development and SME literatures in general.     

Definition of design criteria of mechanical transfer: an interaction between engineering and health areas

This study aims to analyze the factors that justify the low use of a mechanical transfer in the context of a long-term institution. It is a device intended for internal transportation of individuals who have mobility problems. The analysis involves researchers from the fields of health and engineering in order to generate design criteria that consider the needs of caregivers and patients of this institution. To understand the reality of this site and their specificities, was used Ergonomic Work Analysis.     

Examining the relationship between Latinas' perceptions about what constitutes domestic violence and domestic violence victimization

Domestic violence is a serious issue for U.S. Latinas. Better understanding of the potential risk or protection that cultural perceptions about what constitutes domestic violence may convey can help strengthen interventions. Therefore, a convenience sample of 93 Latinas was surveyed about their current levels of domestic violence victimization, acculturation, and demographics, as well as about whether 5 behavioral scenarios constituted domestic violence. Hierarchical multiple regressions were performed to examine the relationships between the 5 perception items and domestic violence victimization. After adjusting for established risk factors, only viewing male partner stalking and female verbal aggression as domestic violence were significantly associated with decreased domestic violence victimization. Findings can be integrated into the development and implementation of culturally competent interventions targeting Latinas.     

“Todo ha sido a pulmón”: Community organizing after disaster in Puerto Rico

ABSTRACT

In this Notes from the Field, we highlight the work of community based organizations that filled essential gaps in the disaster recovery efforts in Puerto Rico for communities that were heavily damaged by Hurricane Maria yet received little formal government aid. We describe community mobilizing and organizing efforts and identify key lessons for eco-social work practice. As disaster risk increases with climate change, community led efforts are likely to prove vital for the effective protection of the most vulnerable population groups.     

A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tietê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion

The market share of Tietê–Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though an expressive accident history is available, a frequentist approach is not suitable due to differences between current operational conditions and those met in the past. Therefore, a subjective assessment is an option as allows for working independently of the historical data, thus delivering more reliable results. In this context, this article proposes a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of undesired events based on expert opinion combined with fuzzy analysis. This methodology defines a criterion to weighting the experts and, using the fuzzy logic, evaluates the similarities among the experts’ beliefs to be used in the aggregation process before the defuzzification that quantifies the probability of occurrence of the events based on the experts’ opinion. Moreover, the proposed methodology is applied to the real case of the TPIW and the results obtained from the elicited experts are compared with a frequentist approach evidencing the impact on the results when considering different interpretations of the probability.