Why the social sciences won't become high-consensus,rapid-discovery science

A research front of rapid discovery, leaving a trail of cognitive consensus behind it, is characteristic of natural sciences since about the 17th century in Europe. The basis of this high-consensus, rapid-discovery science is not empiricism, since empirical research existed in the natural sciences before the 17th century. The key is appropriation of genealogies of research technologies, which are pragmatically manipulated and modified to produce new phenomena; high consensus results because there is higher social prestige in moving ahead to new research discoveries than by continuing to dispute the interpretation of older discoveries. The social sciences have not acquired this pattern of rapid discovery with high consensus behind the research front. Their fundamental disability is not lack of empirical research, nor failure to adhere to a scientific epistemology, nor the greater ideological controversy that surrounds social topics. What is fundamentally lacking in the social sciences is a genealogy of research technology, whose manipulation reliably produces new phenomena and a rapidly moving research front. Unless the social sciences invent new research hardware, they will likely never acquire much consensus or rapid discovery. Possibilities may exist for such development stemming from research technologies in microsociology and in artificial intelligence.     

INCOME UNCERTAINTY and THE ONSET OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION

Income uncertainty contributes substantially to explaining the fall in consumption that marks the onset of the Great Depression. Consistent estimates of the variance of income measure income uncertainty from 1921-30 and are produced using a linear moment model. This series provides a statistical link between the large erratic swings in income uncertainty after September 1929 and the Great Crash in the stock market. Comparison of the behavior of income uncertainty in the 1920s to the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras suggests that the experience after the Great Crash was historically unique.     

Considerations in the Evaluation of the Short Term Program—The Barwon Experiment

Evaluation of welfare projects is a difficut and demanding process. There are particular difficulties and considerations associated with an evaluation of the short term program—which for the purpose of this article is defined as one established with an initially guaranteed life of up to twelve months. The author examines some of the issues and practical considerations which emerged during the evaluation of one such program, the Barwon Regional Family Aide Scheme, and presents the model which was developed.     

The making of African‐American Protestantism

Come Shouting to Zion: African American Protestantism in the American South and British Caribbean to 1830. SYLVIA R. FREY and BETTY WOOD. Chapel Hill and London: University of North Carolina Press, 1998. xiv, 285pp. $37.95 (cloth); $12.95 (paper). ISBN 0–8078–2375–9; 0–8078–4681–3.

A Separate Canaan: The Making of an Afro‐Moravian World in North Carolina, 1763–1840. JON SENSBACH. Chapel Hill and London: University of North Carolina Press, 1998. xxiii, 342pp. $45.00. ISBN 0–8078–2394–5.