An efficient computational approach for prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation

Prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation are important tools in Bayesian statistics. However, due to the computational expense of implementing existing methods, these techniques are rarely used. In this paper, the authors show how it is possible to use sequential Monte Carlo methods to create an efficient and automated algorithm to perform these tasks. They apply the algorithm to the computation of regularization path plots and to assess the sensitivity of the tuning parameter in g‐prior model selection. They then demonstrate the algorithm in a cross‐validation context and use it to select the shrinkage parameter in Bayesian regression. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:47–64; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Climate Mobility and Development Cooperation

Population and Environment - Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More...     

Will Direct Payments Make Adult Residential Care more Personalized? Views and Experiences of Social Care Staff in the Direct Payments in Residential Care Trailblazers

Direct payments, i.e. cash payments made directly to the individual in lieu of social care services, have become an established option in council‐funded domiciliary care as a means to better personalize care and support. As part of its agenda to modernize social care, the Government tested their use in long‐term residential care in 18 trailblazing councils in England. This article presents findings from the independent evaluation of this initiative, using interviews with project leads seconded to the programme in all participating councils, and with council and care home staff involved in implementing direct payments in residential care in five sites. Interviews were conducted between September 2014 and November 2015. They explored professionals' views and experiences of personalization in residential care and their thoughts on the potential contribution of direct payments to promoting personalization. Whilst there was agreement that good care takes personal preferences into account and that many care homes could provide a more personalized service, doubts were voiced about whether direct payments were an appropriate mechanism to achieve this aim. This was seen as particularly pertinent in relation to residents with very high care needs and limited capacity to exercise choice and control. Interviewees also identified a number of risks and challenges to implementation, including financial risks to care homes. The findings from these interviews suggest that the contribution of direct payments to personalizing residential care may be more modest than expected.     

The effects of high HIV prevalence on orphanhood and living arrangements of children in Malawi, Tanzania, and South Africa

Using longitudinal data from three demographic surveillance systems (DSS) and a retrospective cohort study, we estimate levels and trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi in the period 1988-2004. The prevalence of maternal, paternal, and double orphans rose in all three populations. In South Africa - where the HIV epidemic started later, has been very severe, and has not yet stabilized - the incidence of orphanhood among children is double that of the other populations. The living arrangements of children vary considerably between the populations, particularly in relation to fathers. Patterns of marriage, migration, and adult mortality influence the living and care arrangements of orphans and non-orphans. DSS data provide new insights into the impact of adult mortality on children, challenging several widely held assumptions. For example, we find no evidence that the prevalence of child-headed households is significant or has increased in the three study areas.     

Quality of life indicators and health: Current status and emerging conceptions

Quality of life is an increasingly common theme in the health status and health promotion literatures. Six approaches that consider quality of life and health are reviewed. These are (a) health-related quality of life; (b) quality of life as social diagnosis in health promotion; (c) quality of life among persons with developmental disabilities; (d) quality of life as social indicators; (e) the Centre for Health Promotion (University of Toronto) model, and (f) Lindstrom's quality of life model. Each approach is considered as to its emphasis on objective or subjective indicators, individual or system-level measurement, value-laden or value-neutral assumptions, and potential relationship to social policy and social change goals. The links among the social indicators, quality of life, and health promotions areas are examined.     

Spatial heterogeneity in drinking water sources in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA), Ghana

Population and Environment - Universal access to safe drinking water is essential to population health and well-being, as recognized in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). To develop targeted...     

Evaluating the effectiveness of the Massachusetts workforce development system using no-shows as a nonexperimental comparison group

This article examines the effect of the Massachusetts workforce development system on the earnings of disadvantaged adults using nonexperimental data from the late 1990s. The authors construct a comparison sample for program participants using individuals who apply for and are offered services yet do not participate in a training program. They present a series of difference-in-difference estimates that make several alternative efforts to correct for selectivity bias, including econometric models that regression adjust for observable characteristics and fixed-effect models that adjust for time-invariant person effects. They also employ probabilistic matching techniques to more finely align the treatment and comparison samples. On average, program participants experienced 20% increases in annual earnings 1 year postintervention and 25% increases after 2 years. The authors uncover considerable heterogeneity in these effects, suggesting that the most difficult to serve and the most job ready benefit the least.