What is Most Important: Social Factors, Health Selection, and Adolescent Educational Achievement

This paper explores the relative importance of social factors and health measures in predicting educational achievement in early and late adolescence using population-based administrative data. The sample was made up of 41,943 children born in Manitoba, Canada between 1982 and 1989 and remaining in the province until age 18. Multilevel modeling nests each individual (level 1) within a family (level 2) residing within a neighborhood (level 3). Most important in predicting adolescent achievement were a broad socioeconomic status index (and a narrower measure of household income), being on social assistance, mother’s age at first birth, gender, residential mobility, the presence of ADHD/Conduct disorders, and measures of family functioning (child taken into care or offered protection services and family structure history). Family size, birth order, and newborn characteristics (birthweight, APGAR, gestational age) were statistically significant but of little importance in explaining the outcomes. Both examining regression coefficients and systematically omitting variables showed social factors (often emphasized by epidemiologists) to have markedly greater effects than the combination of health measures (often stressed by economists) in predicting achievement. However, mental health in childhood is identified as among the important predictors. Record linkage across population datasets from health, education, and family services ministries allowed: tracking health and educational attainment at different times in a child’s life, following a large number of cases across childhood, considerable sensitivity testing, controlling for unmeasured family and neighborhood effects, generating an extensive list of predictors, estimating effect sizes, and comparing Manitoba results with those of well-known American studies.     

Self-concept and contraception: Pre-conception decision-making

This paper deals with the extent to which two dimensions of self-concept, perceived competence and attitudes toward the female role, are a factor in pre-conception decision-making on contraceptive usage among women who have unwanted conceptions. The study was done throughout Michigan in 1974–75. The sample was 1746 women with unwanted conceptions, selected by means of a two-stage stratified sampling design. A standardized questionnaire included items on demographics, birth control use, and pregnancy resolution, as well as a feminism scale and a scale to measure perceived competence. Several multiple regression analyses were carried out. A hypothesis that contraceptive usage would be positively associated with perceived competence and negatively associated with traditional attitudes toward the female role was strongly supported. In an analysis of various subgroups, differing in age, race, and marital status, self-concept variables were significant predictors only among unmarried adults, regardless of race. Other important predictors of contraceptive usage among the subgroups were father's educational level, number of children raised by respondent, having a regular physician, and frequency of church attendance. For this sample, self-concept variables generally were better predictors of the pre-conception decision-making than of the post-conception decision.This research was supported by Grant #HD07739, NICHD. The authors are affiliated with Wayne State University.     

Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

The forecast and policy simulations based on macroeconomic models are used in many instances as an important input into policy decision-making. In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. The approach differs from the standard practice of deriving fiscal closure rules in large macroeconomic forecasting models in both its derivation and implementation. An example of the endogenously derived rule, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model