The dilemma of recognition: Administrative categories and cultural diversity

Governments around the world combat inequality by means of group-specific redistribution. Some pursue redistribution that benefits groups, but also wish to avoid accentuating or even recognizing group distinctions. This poses a dilemma that they try to resolve by adjusting the category system used to target redistribution. There are three types of adjustment: accommodation (the multicultural approach), denial (the ideal-typical liberal solution), and replacement (a compromise). In replacement the targets of redistributive policies are constructed to avoid accentuation or recognition of inconvenient group distinctions, but still allow redistribution that benefits these groups. Replacement is increasingly in demand around the world because the disadvantages of multiculturalism are becoming apparent while denial is hard to sustain in the face of group inequality. The actual effect of replacement is little researched and less understood, however. Does it resolve the dilemma of recognition? Two examples–India and Nigeria–where replacement has been tried ever since the 1950s cast doubt on its viability.     

AIDS as a political issue: working with the sexually prostituted in the Philippines

An estimated 200,000-500,000 men, women, and children work in prostitution in the Philippines in a variety of venues, including brothels, nightclubs, pubs, massage parlors, and other legitimate entertainment establishments. Few, however, are voluntary prostitutes. Many people who work as prostitutes have been recruited from the provinces, kept in conditions similar to slavery, and forced to earn money from prostitution to pay for their transportation, board, and lodging. Many prostitutes work in urban centers and tourist resorts in the countryside. During the 1970s, then President Ferdinand Marcos promoted tourism as a major industry, effectively marketing attractive Filipinas to tourists. Sex tourism has flourished in the country ever since. Thousands of prostitutes are also located in Olongapo and Angeles, 2 cities north of Manila, from where they serve the sexual desires of US military personnel. The presence of US military personnel in the Philippines has always been associated with prostitution. The country's social hygiene centers, prostitutes in Manila and Davao, and AIDS education are briefly discussed.     

The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

International and internal migration decision making: a value-expectancy based analytical framework of intentions to move from a rural Philippine province

"The study compares determinants of internal and international migration intentions, drawing upon interview data from a sample of adults in Ilocos Norte, a largely rural province in the Philippines. A regression model is applied to test the relative determinants of intentions to migrate to Manila and to Hawaii. The study is based on a value-expectancy model of migration decision making. The results document the importance of subjective expectations related to the attainment of different values and goals in Manila and Hawaii."     

Semiparametric Bayesian classification with longitudinal markers

Summary.  We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the β human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from data that are available at the early stages of pregnancy. We achieve the desired classification with a semiparametric hierarchical model. Specifically, we consider a Dirichlet process mixture prior for the distribution of the random effects in each group. The unknown random-effects distributions are allowed to vary across groups but are made dependent by using a design vector to select different features of a single underlying random probability measure. The resulting model is an extension of the dependent Dirichlet process model, with an additional probability model for group classification. The model is shown to perform better than an alternative model which is based on independent Dirichlet processes for the groups. Relevant posterior distributions are summarized by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Power of the Neyman Smooth Test for Evaluating Multivariate Forecast Densities

We compare and investigate Neyman's smooth test, its components, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) goodness-of-fit test for testing the uniformity of multivariate forecast densities. Simulations indicate that the KS test lacks power when the forecast distributions are misspecified, especially for correlated sequences of random variables. Neyman's smooth test and its components work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are size distortions. The components provide directed diagnosis regarding the kind of departure from the null. For illustration, the tests are applied to forecast densities obtained from a bivariate threshold model fitted to high-frequency financial data.