A non-linear time series approach to modelling asymmetry in stock market indexes

In this paper we analyse the performances of a novel approach to modelling non-linear conditionally heteroscedastic time series characterised by asymmetries in both the conditional mean and variance. This is based on the combination of a TAR model for the conditional mean with a Constrained Changing Parameters Volatility (CPV-C) model for the conditional variance. Empirical results are given for the daily returns of the S&P 500, NASDAQ composite and FTSE 100 stock market indexes.     

Childhood Maltreatment and Difficulties in Emotion Regulation: Associations with Sexual and Relationship Satisfaction among Young Adult Women

This study examined relations among childhood maltreatment, difficulties in emotion regulation, and sexual and relationship satisfaction among young adult women reporting current involvement in committed, romantic relationships. A sample of 192 women (ages 18–25) completed self-report questionnaires as part of an Internet-based survey. It was hypothesized that severity of childhood maltreatment and difficulties in emotion regulation would each independently and negatively predict (a) sexual satisfaction, (b) relationship intimacy, and (c) expression of affection within the context of the relationship. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that greater emotion regulation difficulties would moderate the effects of childhood maltreatment on these sexual and relationship variables (i.e., sexual satisfaction, relationship intimacy, and expression of affection). Findings suggest that difficulties in emotion regulation demonstrated an incremental effect with regard to sexual satisfaction, but not with intimacy and affection expression. In contrast to predictions, no significant interactive effects were documented. Clinical implications and future directions related to this line of inquiry are discussed.     

保证期间的性质再认识

保证是附停止条件的法律行为,保证债权的产生须待保证所附的条件成就.债权人在保证期间内所行使的权利并非请求权而是形成权,确切地讲是选择权.保证期间是除斥期间,即债权人形成权的存续期间.     

Gender-sensitive data: the state of the art in Europe*

Gender statistics play a crucial role in social research and in the creation of gender sensitive policies. Gender statistics document the situation of women and men around the world, making it easier to raise awareness about inequalities between them, to monitor gender equality and promote actionable change. There is thus a need to encourage awareness about gender statistics and their usefulness in gender mainstreaming. The paper has different aims: (1) to discuss the role of gender statistics and gender sensitive indicators; (2) to give an overview of the main gender sensitive European databases; (3) to present the European Commission Strategy on Gender Equality; (4) to display information collected by the European Institute for Gender Equality (Eige) database; (5) to promote proposal for increasing the gender sensitivity of social indicators.     

Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios

This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.

Aggressive behaviour in adolescence: Links with self‐esteem and parental emotional availability

Aggressive behaviours during adolescence may be predictive of later conduct disorders, hence it is important to early detect their signals and deepen the study of their possible risk factors. In order to address these issues, our study pursued two main objectives: to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Italian adaptation of the Aggression Questionnaire Short‐Form (AQ‐SF), a form never previously used among Italian adolescents; and to investigate the relation among aggressiveness, emotional relationship with both parents and self‐esteem in a sample of adolescents. Our results highlighted that psychometric properties of the Italian AQ‐SF are satisfactory and encourage a wider use of this tool; in addition, we found that self‐esteem plays a mediation role between parental emotional availability and aggression. Prevention efforts should focus on improving the relationship with both parents and strengthening adolescent's self‐esteem.     

Oil and gas depletion: Diffusion models and forecasting under strategic intervention

Crude oil and natural gas depletion may be modelled by a diffusion process based upon a constrained life-cycle. Here we consider the Generalized Bass Model. The choice is motivated by the realistic assumption that there is a self-evident link between oil and gas extraction and the spreading of the modern technologies in wide areas such as transport, heating, cooling, chemistry and hydrocarbon fuels consumption. Such a model may include deterministic or semi-deterministic regulatory interventions. Statistical analysis is based upon nonlinear methodologies and more flexible autoregressive structure of residuals. The technical aim of this paper is to outline the meaningful hierarchy existing among the components of such diffusion models. Statistical effort in residual component analysis may be read as a significant confirmation of a well-founded diffusion process under rare but strong deterministic shocks. Applications of such ideas are proposed with reference to world oil and gas production data and to particular regions such as mainland U.S.A., U.K., Norway and Alaska. The main results give new evidence in time-peaks location and in residual times to depletion.     

A blocked Gibbs sampler for NGG-mixture models via a priori truncation

We define a new class of random probability measures, approximating the well-known normalized generalized gamma (NGG) process. Our new process is defined from the representation of NGG processes as discrete measures where the weights are obtained by normalization of the jumps of Poisson processes and the support consists of independent identically distributed location points, however considering only jumps larger than a threshold \(\varepsilon \). Therefore, the number of jumps of the new process, called \(\varepsilon \)-NGG process, is a.s. finite. A prior distribution for \(\varepsilon \) can be elicited. We assume such a process as the mixing measure in a mixture model for density and cluster estimation, and build an efficient Gibbs sampler scheme to simulate from the posterior. Finally, we discuss applications and performance of the model to two popular datasets, as well as comparison with competitor algorithms, the slice sampler and a posteriori truncation.     

Knowledge Spillovers from FDI: A Critical Review from the International Business Perspective

This paper reviews and organizes the theoretical and empirical research on foreign direct investment (FDI) knowledge spillovers from the international business perspective. In doing so, it develops a framework for the analysis of this phenomenon. The suggested FDI knowledge spillover framework integrates both the macro‐level (country, industry, institutions) and micro‐level (multinational firm, headquarters, subsidiary, local firms) antecedents of spillovers with their consequences, and proposes to analyse spillovers along three main attributes that characterize their occurrence, i.e. their magnitude, scope and speed.     

The Effects of the Tomatis Method on the Artistic Voice

In the theory of the French Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) doctor Alfred Tomatis, the voice emits the frequencies the ear can perceive. The auditory stimulation, through the treatment elaborated by Tomatis, can determine the stabilization or the improvement of some vocal parameters, as well as the effect on the formants of voice. A group of N = 19 subjects, singers and actors, were assessed by complete clinical ENT evaluations including fibrolaryngoscopy, otoscopy, and clinical audiometry. The voice analysis was carried out with the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP) and with the Praat software. The results demonstrate that after the treatment entails an increase in the mean of energy density on the third formant of voice (F3). An improvement in the ability to maintain a constant intensity of the vocal emission resulted from MDVP analysis with a reduction on the standard deviation of the voice amplitude. The improvement in the auditory perception, particularly for 3 kHz, determines a better intelligibility and articulation of the words. The better auditory perception in the zone of 3 kHz reduces the phenomenon of nasalization and gives expressive power to the artistic voice. The decrease of Peak-Amplitude Variation (vAm) lead to a stable voice emission with a better control.