Two tests for monotone failure rate with incomplete data

Two statistics are proposed for testing for the exponential distribution against monotone failure rate alternatives when ran-domly right censored data are available. One of them is a general-ization of the Billmann, Antle and Bain test based on the MLE of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution. The second has the advantage of being given in closed form. For this test the asymptotic null distribution is given. Consistency of the two tests is proved starting from an expected value inequality characterizing monotone failure rate.     

Population activities of the United States government

The editor's comment in this issue of the journal cites 5 overlapping phases in the evolution of population and family planning programs in the United States. The phases are 1) collecting census data and vital statistics, 1790-, 2) family planning assistance to developing nations, 1963, 3) family planning assistance to the U.S. "disadvantaged," 1964-, 4) overpopulation as a national concern, 1969-, and 5) the multiple action phase, 197? (phase including diverse steps to limit population growth and occurring after basic attitudes toward human reproduction have changed). The issue of the journal focuses on total population size and rates of population increase rather than on the distribution of population, and on federal action rather than on the activities of state and local governments. The editor's comment is followed by an extensive discussion of population activities of the United States government, especially since 1963. Topics discussed include demographic data, international programs, research, federally subsidized family planning services, medical care programs, educational and international programs, national growth policy, and the roles of the legislative and executive branches of government. A directory listing federal agencies with substantial and identifiable programs concerned with population and family planning is appended.     

Low fertility and limited diffusion of modern contraception in Italy during the second half of the twentieth century

During the last two decades of the twentieth century, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Japan were characterized by very low fertility levels and limited diffusion of the pill, IUD and sterilization for contraceptive purposes. This paradox is discussed for Italy by revisiting the history of contraception and reproduction during the second half of the twentieth century, and by using new data for the end of that century and the early twenty-first century. The main results are: (1) it has been possible to maintain low rates of planned and unplanned fertility without resorting to more effective contraceptive methods thanks to a careful use ofcoitus interruptus; (2) the pace of diffusion of the pill and IUD was so slow because of the opposition to contraception of the Catholic Church, a gender system emphasizing traditional male and female roles, and a medical culture that made physicians reluctant to prescribe the pill for their patients; and (3) the contraceptive patterns of Italian women born after 1960 are more similar to those of their Western counterparts, although new peculiarities appear, for example, substantial reliance on the condom by people living as couples as well as sexually active singles.     

How Ineffective Family Environments Can Compound Maldevelopment of Critical Thinking Skills in Childhood Abuse Survivors

The high stress of childhood abuse is associated with neurobiological detriments to executive function. Child abuse survivors may also be cognitively and relationally disadvantaged as a result of being raised in emotionally impoverished families that lack cohesion, organization, flexibility, self-expression, and moral and ethical values and fail to provide opportunities for effective learning. A review of literature demonstrates how dysfunctional family of origin environments common to child abuse survivors, concomitant with the extreme stress of overt acts of abuse, can act as a barrier to the development of higher-order critical thinking skills. The article concludes by discussing ramifications of critical thinking skill deficits in child abuse survivors and highlights the importance of integrating and prioritizing critical thinking skills training in treatment.     

Predictor distribution and forecast accuracy of threshold models

In the present paper the predictor distribution of a SETAR (Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model (Tong and Lim, 1980) has been investigated when the lead time is greater than the threshold delay.After a brief presentation of the model under study, some relevant aspects of the density forecasts are shown highlighting how they can be used to generate more accurate predictions and to estimate an approximation of the probability density function of the SETAR predictors. The performances of competing predictors have been evaluated through a simulation study and an application to financial market data of the daily Nikkey 300 stock market returns.     

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

European Journal of Population - In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic...     

Separation and Divorce: Effect on Family Structures and Life Conditions

The aim of this paper is to supply some basic data on separations and divorces in Italy in order to evaluate their impact on the family system both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. The focus is on the role played by marital disruption in the observed recent increase in the number of ‘new families’ and its effects on the life conditions and economic well‐being of the women and children involved.     

A new test to detect monotonic and non-monotonic types of heteroscedasticity

A direct parametric test is proposed to detect monotonic and non-monotonic types of heteroscedasticity. After giving brief information about non-monotonic types of heteroscedasticity, the test algorithm is introduced. Proposed test and usual heteroscedasticity tests are compared on monotonic and non-monotonic types of heteroscedasticity in real and artificial data.