Production strategy decisions a simulation model approach

Model building in physical, statistical, simulation or other form, is making an increasing contribution to the problem solving methodology in economics, industry, government, and technological development (1). More specifically, in the present context, simulation models can offer a distinctive and valuable contribution to the understanding by management of complex business systems, interactions and environment and indicate ways toward improvement, financial and otherwise (2). The advent of powerful computers in the last few years is the decisive factor which has decided the means of realizing the full potential of simulation models, hitherto unattainable because of the vast amount of data processing and calculation required. The purpose of this article is to indicate the approach to and scope of a computerized simulation model for long term production strategy decision making (3). While the model relates to the system and data of a specific production unit, manufacturing electronic components, the principles are widely applicable in any size and type of company. It is not a specifically large company technique.     

New venture development at Du Pont

New Products are the life blood of a growing company, but traditional methods of introducing new products are no longer adequate. Du Pont is using a new approach called Venture Management. A New Venture Development provides an ideal environment for making and carrying out decisions involved in introducing new technological developments. It combines the advantages in mobility and communications enjoyed by a small venture-orientated company with the strong technical and financial advantages of a large company.     

Socioeconomic,sociodemographic and attitudinal correlates of the tempo of divorce

The association between sociodemographic, demographic, and attitudinal measures and the timing or tempo of marital dissolution over a 14-year time span is examined. Separation is considered equivalent to divorce. Early and late divorce are differentiated by whether the event occurred before or after the average number of years married prior to divorce. Data were obtained on husbands and wives within childbearing years (up to 39 years) in the 1st years of the 1st marriage. A random stratified sample of 610 couples was drawn from records of marriages in a midwestern county between 1972-77. Reinterviews were conducted on 544 couples in April 1985. socioeconomic variables included educational attainment, occupational prestige, wife's employment status, wife's future work plans, husband's attitude to wife's future work plans, total family income, and level of satisfaction with current financial status. Demographic variables are age at marriage, number of children in 1985, marital duration, and desired family size. Attitudinal items were religiosity and gender role orientations (traditionalism, modernism, egalitarianism). Exposure to divorce was not equitably distributed for the 108 who divorced, but this was not statistically significant. The results indicate that those divorced earlier were wives who worked outside the home, worked at more prestigious jobs, planned to be employed throughout married life, and whose father had a higher level of educational attainment. This finding is not consistent with prior research which has shown that favorable socioeconomic conditions lower the probability of divorce. The timing of divorce was affected by the presence of children. Those married at younger ages divorced earlier and couples with children delayed divorcing longer than couples without children. These findings were consistent with earlier research. Catholic wives delayed divorce longer than non-Catholic wives. Males lower in sexual satisfaction divorced earlier. Divorce was postponed longer for husbands with traditional values and wives who had higher scores on egalitarianism. Wives with scores on modernism had earlier divorces than wives scoring lower on modernism. The tempo of divorce was in multiple classification analysis predicted best by wife's employment status and number of children. Cross-classification was not possible.     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

Population changes and the cost of health care for the elderly in Poland

"The author...has attempted to measure the effects of population changes upon the costs of health care [in Poland] by applying a simulation model. In this model the total cost of health care is a function of the per capita cost of health care by age, sex, and place of residence (urban, rural) and population structure.... The paper includes...the results concerning population 60 years of age and over." Data are from several official health-related surveys carried out in 1989.     

Strategic planning for the board

Although the planning operation is regarded by some observers as unrealistic in conditions of rapid change and increasing competition, the discipline of strategic thinking and the need for strategic leadership continue to be of vital importance. The author examines the purpose of the Board of Directors and its role in the management of strategy.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Recent trends in the process of stratification

Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a "basic model" of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic "gender gap" are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant year-by-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.