FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

CATEGORY WIDTH COGNITIVE STYLE AS A FACTOR IN ACCOUNTANTS' PERCEPTIONS OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION

This paper reports the findings of a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the relationship of category width (CW) cognitive style with accountants' perceptions of accounting information. Subjects drawn from large accounting firms in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne, Australia, were classified into broad, medium, and narrow categories following the test devised by Pettigrew [19]. Subjects were requested to state their level of confidence in decisions they had made after receiving (1) conventional accounting information or (2) conventional accounting information and human resources accounting (HRA) information using a one-group pretest-posttest design. The results indicated a significant relationship between CW cognitive style and the accountants' confidence in their decisions. Furthermore, CW cognitive style moderated the accounting-information/decision-making relationship.     

“It’s Not My Fault!” Status,Attributions, and Perceptions of Injustice: The Case of Custodians and Teachers

Perceptions of injustice rely upon a sense-making process in which individuals attempt to understand why and how it occurs. We draw from the attribution-of-blame model of justice judgments to examine how two work groups of disparate status make sense of the treatment and outcomes engendered by their interactions. Data from 27 in-depth interviews with custodians and teachers reveal that when custodians perceive disrespect from teachers and teachers perceive that custodians do not fulfill properly their duties, their attributions are shaped by their status position. Although both make internal attributions to each other for their injustice, teachers do not recognize how they perpetrate injustice against custodians and custodians perceive greater injustice by identifying how external factors affect their performance and blame. This unjustified blame fosters counterproductive work behaviors, illustrating how interdependencies fuel a cycle of injustice. We discuss the implications of these findings for the school and justice processes.     

The Continuous Run Sum Chart

The run sum chart is an effective two-sided chart that can be used to monitor for process changes. It is known that it is more sensible than the Shewhart chart with runs rules and its performance improves as the number of regions increases. However, as the number of regions increses the resulting chart has more parameters to be defined and its design becomes more involved. In this article, we introduce a one-parameter run sum chart. This chart accumulates scores equal to the subgroup means and signals when the cummulative sum exceeds a limit value. A fast initial response feature is proposed and its run length distribution function is found by a set of recursive relations. We compare this chart with other charts suggested in the literature and find it competitive with the CUSUM, the FIR CUSUM, and the combined Shewhart FIR CUSUM schemes.     

Considerations on jury size and composition using lower probabilities

The use of lower probabilities is considered for inferences in basic jury scenarios to study aspects of the size of juries and their composition if society consists of subpopulations. The use of lower probability seems natural in law, as it leads to robust inference in the sense of providing a defendant with the benefit of the doubt. The method presented in this paper focusses on how representative a jury is for the whole population, using a novel concept of a second ’imaginary’ jury together with exchangeability assumptions. It has the advantage that there is an explicit absence of any assumption with regard to guilt of a defendant. Although the concept of a jury in law is central in the presentation, the novel approach and the conclusions of this paper hold for representative decision making processes in many fields, and it also provides a new perspective to stratified sampling.     

Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated poisson regression profiles

The objective of this paper is to study the Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated Poisson profiles where the response values within each profile are autocorrelated. Two charts, the SLRT and the Hotelling's T², are proposed along with an algorithm for parameter estimation. The detecting power of the proposed charts is compared using simulations in terms of the signal probability criterion. The performance of the SLRT method in estimating the change point in the regression parameters is also evaluated. Moreover, a real data example is presented to illustrate the application of the methods.     

A Comparative Study of Segregation Patterns in Belgium,Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden: Neighbourhood Concentration and Representation of Non-European Migrants

In this paper, we use geo-coded, individual-level register data on four European countries to compute comparative measures of segregation that are independent of existing geographical sub-divisions. The focus is on non-European migrants, for whom aggregates of egocentric neighbourhoods (with different population counts) are used to assess small-scale, medium-scale, and large-scale segregation patterns. At the smallest scale level, corresponding to neighbourhoods with 200 persons, patterns of over- and under-representation are strikingly similar. At larger-scale levels, Belgium stands out as having relatively strong over- and under-representation. More than 55% of the Belgian population lives in large-scale neighbourhoods with moderate under- or over-representation of non-European migrants. In the other countries, the corresponding figures are between 30 and 40%. Possible explanations for the variation across countries are differences in housing policies and refugee placement policies. Sweden has the largest and Denmark the smallest non-European migrant population, in relative terms. Thus, in both migrant-dense and native-born-dense areas, Swedish neighbourhoods have a higher concentration and Denmark a lower concentration of non-European migrants than the other countries. For large-scale, migrant-dense neighbourhoods, however, levels of concentration are similar in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Thus, to the extent that such concentrations contribute to spatial inequalities, these countries are facing similar policy challenges.