Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk

We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamic volatilities and correlations that ensure that uncertainty and risk dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to euro area sovereign CDS spreads during the euro area debt crisis. Our results reveal significant time-variation in distress dependence and spill-over effects for sovereign default risk. We investigate market perceptions of joint and conditional sovereign risk around announcements of Eurosystem asset purchases programs, and document a strong impact on joint risk.     

The total bootstrap median: a robust and efficient estimator of location and scale for small samples

We propose the total bootstrap median (TBM) as a robust and efficient estimator of location and scale for small samples. We demonstrate its performance by estimating the mean and variance of a variety of distributions. We also show that, if the underlying distribution is unknown and there is either no contamination or low to moderate contamination, the TBM provides a better estimate of the mean, in mean square terms, than the sample mean or the sample median. In addition, the TBM is a better estimator of the variance of the underlying distribution than the sample variance or the square of the bias-corrected median absolute deviation from the median estimator. We also show that the TBM is an explicit L-estimator, which allows a direct study of its properties.     

From local champions to global players: A long-term perspective on Swiss companies’ connections across territorial scales

Corporate interlocking at the national and transnational scale has received substantive scholarly attention. Less is known about companies’ ties to the cities and regions in which they have their seats. In this paper, we conduct a long-term analysis of the multilevel ties that companies maintain with the local and the national context they are embedded in. To do so, we adopt a positional approach and identify the directors of the major companies in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, and Zurich) and study company directors’ ties to local and national organizations in seven benchmark years between 1890 and 2020. Our analysis documents the rise and fall of company directors’ ties to national organizations over the course of the 20th century, and it highlights the continued persistence of companies’ ties to the local level and their region until the new millennium, when companies’ ties with national and local organizations vanish, coinciding with the transnationalization of company boards.     

A positive psychology intervention to foster economic integration of Syrian refugees in the Netherlands

Research shows that the labour market integration of refugees is often problematic. Little is known about what kind of measures are effective to help them integrate into the labour market. In the Netherlands, a positive psychology intervention “Mosaic” for Syrian refugees was developed to support their economic participation. This study aims to assess the effect of “Mosaic” on the economic participation and work-related attitudes of Syrian refugees. “Mosaic” was implemented in six municipalities by conducting an RCT with a waiting list control group. The results show that in the short term, the intervention group realizes a significantly larger increase in hours spent on an internship as well as substantially larger gains in confidence to find work in the future. In the long term, the intervention group experiences larger confidence gains related to finding a job that fits their education and experience.     

Happiness and capability: Introduction to the symposium

The aim of this symposium is to move beyond the established, narrow measures of well-being. It does so by bringing together insights from the happiness approach and the capability approach, both of which are at the forefront of theorizing on welfare in economics. The reason is that the connection happiness–capability is extremely stimulating and potentially able of opening up a very promising field of research. For this purpose, the symposium consists of overview papers by leading scholars and practitioners and of papers dealing with key conceptual and empirical issues on the frontier of combined happiness and capability research.     

Análisis de la contextualización del comportamiento adaptativo en el retraso mental: Comparación entre contexto familiar e institucional

Resumen

Este estudio se dirige a contrastar las diferencias en el comportamiento adaptativo de los sujetos retrasados que son producto de los diferentes contextos en los que éste es emitido. En este caso, el contexto se entiende como los aspectos físicos y sociales del lugar en el que inmediatamente se produce la conducta. Esta perspectiva molecular del contexto ha permitido detectar diferencias en el comportamiento adaptativo en términos de lenguaje receptivo y lenguaje expresivo. La muestra utilizada fueron 71 sujetos evaluados a través del West Virginia assessment and tracking system.     

Book reviews

Africa in Modern History: the Search for a New Society, by Basil Davidson. London: Allen Lane, 1975.     

Uma Vida Melhor?: Portuguese Migrant Workers in a Rural Community

As migrants have traditionally settled in the larger towns and cities, research into economic integration has in the past focused on urban centres. Evidence from recent migration flows is that migrant settlement is far more dispersed both nationally and regionally, requiring a shift in focus to small town and rural communities (STRCs). Studies exist on the Portuguese migrant presence in urban areas across Europe but little research has been carried out into their integration into and impact on STRCs. It will be argued that the Portuguese represent an interesting case study because they are a diverse, multinational group that had become an established community in East Anglia prior to the influx of East Europeans from the post-accession states during the early 2000s. It is argued that tensions exist within as well as between the immigrant nationalities. The focus is on the labour market in East Anglia and recurring issues such as declining job opportunities and growing competition for employment.     

Electroencephalographic Evidence of Abnormal Anticipatory Uncertainty Processing in Gambling Disorder Patients

Putting money at stake produces anticipatory uncertainty, a process that has been linked to key features of gambling. Here we examined how learning and individual differences modulate the stimulus preceding negativity (SPN, an electroencephalographic signature of perceived uncertainty of valued outcomes) in gambling disorder patients (GDPs) and healthy controls (HCs), during a non-gambling contingency learning task. Twenty-four GDPs and 26 HCs performed a causal learning task under conditions of high and medium uncertainty (HU, MU; null and positive cue-outcome contingency, respectively). Participants were asked to predict the outcome trial-by-trial, and to regularly judge the strength of the cue-outcome contingency. A pre-outcome SPN was extracted from simultaneous electroencephalographic recordings for each participant, uncertainty level, and task block. The two groups similarly learnt to predict the occurrence of the outcome in the presence/absence of the cue. In HCs, SPN amplitude decreased as the outcome became predictable in the MU condition, a decrement that was absent in the HU condition, where the outcome remained unpredictable during the task. Most importantly, GDPs’ SPN remained high and insensitive to task type and block. In GDPs, the SPN amplitude was linked to gambling preferences. When both groups were considered together, SPN amplitude was also related to impulsivity. GDPs thus showed an abnormal electrophysiological response to outcome uncertainty, not attributable to faulty contingency learning. Differences with controls were larger in frequent players of passive games, and smaller in players of more active games. Potential psychological mechanisms underlying this set of effects are discussed.