让历史启迪未来 用激情感染灵魂——解读大型史诗电视剧《辛亥革命》

辛亥百年之际,电视剧《辛亥革命》本着"让历史启迪未来、用激情感染灵魂"的主旨,运用大历史视阈与小历史节点相结合的史学取径及历史真实与艺术想象并重的文化范式,精确刻画和定位精英群体,大力歌颂和弘扬辛亥国魂,获得了巨大的成功,赢得了良好的社会反响。     

The simplicity of likelihood based inferences for P(X < Y) and for the ratio of means in the exponential model

The profile likelihood of the reliability parameter θ = P(X < Y) or of the ratio of means, when X and Y are independent exponential random variables, has a simple analytical expression and is a powerful tool for making inferences. Inferences about θ can be given in terms of likelihood-confidence intervals with a simple algebraic structure even for small and unequal samples. The case of right censored data can also be handled in a simple way. This is in marked contrast with the complicated expressions that depend on cumbersome numerical calculations of multidimensional integrals required to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals that have been traditionally presented in scientific literature.     

对民族体育项目“抢花炮”引入贵州农村中学体育课堂的思考

本研究运用文献资料法、专家访问法、逻辑分析等方法对流行在侗族、壮族、仡佬族、苗等民族中的一项少数民族传统体育“抢花炮”引入贵州农村中学体育课堂进行了研究。首先通过分析少数民族传统体育“抢花炮”引入贵州农村中学体育课堂的意义，来说明将少数民族传统体育“抢花炮”引入贵州农村中学体育课堂的重要性，最后探讨将少数民族传统体育“抢花炮”引入贵州农村中学体育课堂的具体方法和途径。为贵州农村中学学校体育教学改革提供参考和借鉴。     

Influence of form and timing of social support on parental outcomes of a child-maltreatment prevention program

This study examines how the form of social support (informal or formal) and the time frame at which it is provided (at the start or end of the program) influence parental outcomes on the “Apoyo Personal y Familiar” (APF) program for at-risk families showing inadequate child-rearing practices. A total of 496 parents participated, 247 parents referred by the municipal social services in the Autonomous Community of Castile and Leon (Spain), and 249 non-referred parents. Initial and final levels of use of and satisfaction with informal and formal support were used as predictors of change scores in self-rating measures of beliefs about child development, perceptions of the parental role and child-rearing practices, applying hierarchical linear regression analyses. Perceived use of and satisfaction with support explained around 22% to 49% of the change scores in the Nurturist belief as a simple view of child development, Couple agreement on educational matters, Permissive–neglectful practices and Coercion practices, after accounting for the variance due to risk status, financial situation and family structure variables. Informal support always has a positive impact irrespective of when the help is provided, whereas formal support only has a positive impact when applied at the start of the program. The adequate provision of social supports can be an efficient way to prevent child maltreatment by promoting changes in parental beliefs and practices related to at-risk parenting.     

持枪权的全国化与美国联邦制

美国宪法第二修正案是美国社会枪支泛滥的宪法基础。美国各界对第二修正案不同理解成为美国枪械管制举步维艰的一个主要原因。在2008年"哥伦比亚特区诉赫勒案"和2010年"麦克唐纳诉芝加哥案"中,最高法院对第二修正案做出历史性解释:"持有和携带武器的权利"是一项个人基本权利,并通过第十四修正案予以吸收适用于全美各地。持枪权的"全国化"引发了一系列宪政问题,其中就包括联邦制。枪械管制传统上属于州权中的治安权范畴,联邦政府的介入,将损害联邦制的价值,特别对历史悠久的"州试验"原则带来负面影响。     

Measuring the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics—evidence from Spain

Accounting for the time individuals spend below the poverty line is an important dimension in order to design social policies to fight against poverty. The literature is currently aiming to construct a consistent aggregate measure of poverty over time that takes into account individual income lifetime profiles. It is however, far from clear which aspects of the specific patterns of poverty spells should be included. Using longitudinal data for Spain, this paper shows that the effect of spell recurrence on poverty dynamics is relevant. Poverty exit and re-entry rates vary not only with personal or household characteristics but also with spell accumulation and the duration of current and past spells. In general, our main findings support that an aggregate intertemporal poverty index should incorporate full individual poverty lifetime trajectories accounting for both poverty and non-poverty spell durations.     

渠道关系中专项投资不对等与机会主义行为间关系研究——正式化、参与与私人关系的调节作用

本文探讨了由生产商-经销商构成的渠道关系中,双方专项投资不对等对机会主义行为的影响及正式化、参与和私人关系对上述影响的调节作用。根据来自中国汽车行业的调研数据验证了概念模型和假设。结果显示:(1)专项投资不对等会带来机会主义行为;(2)正式化和参与能够减弱上述关系;(3)私人关系中的感情、人情对上述关系没有显著的调节作用,面子则会强化上述关系。研究结论加深了对专项投资在渠道关系中影响的认识,扩展了渠道关系管理的研究,并对企业如何有效防范由专项投资不对等带来的机会主义行为具有指导意义。     

城市治理中“街头官僚”的行为失范及其解决之道

作为与普通民众打交道最为密切频繁的官僚群体，街头官僚的行为逻辑日益引起学术界的普遍重视。街头官僚是公共政策的重要执行者，其行动偏差往往会造成公共政策失真、失效，甚至造成严重后果。本文以公共选择理论和治理理论为分析视角，详细考察街头官僚的身份特征和行为逻辑，探究导致其行为发生偏差的原因并找寻解决之道，希籍对更好的推进我国城市治理提供一些有益帮助。     

The becoming of an archive: perspectives on a music archive and the limits of institutionality

ABSTRACT

The call on South African music departments to critically engage with their curricula in order to reflect the broader music landscape wherein they function has been ongoing for the past 40 years. While some departments did engage in strategies to transform their curricula, various scholars have pointed out that most of these institutions have to some extent remained fixed within conservative syllabi and ideological practices conceived to serve the previous dispensation. It is within this field of discursive engagement and political actions directed towards change that archives can play an important role in decolonising higher education institutions. While recognising that archives work to a slower historical beat than what is currently (often militantly) demanded in debates on decolonisation in South African universities, this article wishes to argue that this temporal differential is important in terms of long-term institutional and curricular reform. This article will consider these questions with particular reference to the Documentation Centre for Music (DOMUS), an archive-centred music research project in the Music Department at the University of Stellenbosch. This article will posit that DOMUS’s collection practices and projects may serve as examples of active and radical strategies with the potential to affect change within conservative institutional spaces.