从《教堂司事》谈毛姆及其创作的两重性特征

毛姆是英国文学史上一位具有世界性声誉,同时备受评论界争议的风格独特的作家.现有的文学史著作或是将其列入现实主义阵营,或是列入自然主义行列,但毛姆在文化价值观上一直处于两栖状态,这也致使他在人生观、哲学观和创作观上都表现出非此非彼的双重特性,同时,他的作品形式和风格兼具现实主义和现代主义的双重特色.<教堂司事>是毛姆众多短篇小说中少有人问津的一篇,但其中所包含的非此非彼,亦此亦彼的两重性特征很好地诠释了毛姆不同于同时代其他作家的独特之处,及其在文学史上所发挥的现实主义的"余脉"和现代主义的"先兆"的特殊的双重功能.     

Assessment of Seismic Loss Dependence Using Copula

The catastrophic nature of seismic risk is attributed to spatiotemporal correlation of seismic losses of buildings and infrastructure. For seismic risk management, such correlated seismic effects must be adequately taken into account, since they affect the probability distribution of aggregate seismic losses of spatially distributed structures significantly, and its upper tail behavior can be of particular importance. To investigate seismic loss dependence for two closely located portfolios of buildings, simulated seismic loss samples, which are obtained from a seismic risk model of spatially distributed buildings by taking spatiotemporally correlated ground motions into account, are employed. The characterization considers a loss frequency model that incorporates one dependent random component acting as a common shock to all buildings, and a copula‐based loss severity model, which facilitates the separate construction of marginal loss distribution functions and nonlinear copula function with upper tail dependence. The proposed method is applied to groups of wood‐frame buildings located in southwestern British Columbia. Analysis results indicate that the dependence structure of aggregate seismic losses can be adequately modeled by the right heavy tail copula or Gumbel copula, and that for the considered example, overall accuracy of the proposed method is satisfactory at probability levels of practical interest (at most 10% estimation error of fractiles of aggregate seismic loss). The developed statistical seismic loss model may be adopted in dynamic financial analysis for achieving faster evaluation with reasonable accuracy.     

Consistency of l 1 estimates in censored linear regression models

In this paper, the regression model with a nonnegativity constraint on the dependent variable is considered. Under weak conditions, L ₁ estimates of the regression coefficients are shown to be consistent.     

浅议微电影对高校思想政治教育之影响

微电影的制作周期短、传播速度快、形式上喜闻乐见等特点，能够增强高校思想政治教育的针对性和有效性，提升其便捷性和时效性。但鱼龙混杂的微电影也给高校思想政治教育工作增加了难度，带来了阻力。高校应利用微电影进行学习资源的跨界融合、为大学生创造条件拍摄优秀的微电影作品，同时也应对大学生观看微电影进行进一步的规范和引导，从而发挥微电影对思想政治教育的积极影响。     

Use of Quality-Adjusted Life Year Weights with Dose-Response Models for Public Health Decisions: A Case Study of the Risks and Benefits of Fish Consumption

Risks associated with toxicants in food are often controlled by exposure reduction. When exposure recommendations are developed for foods with both harmful and beneficial qualities, however, they must balance the associated risks and benefits to maximize public health. Although quantitative methods are commonly used to evaluate health risks, such methods have not been generally applied to evaluating the health benefits associated with environmental exposures. A quantitative method for risk-benefit analysis is presented that allows for consideration of diverse health endpoints that differ in their impact (i.e., duration and severity) using dose-response modeling weighted by quality-adjusted life years saved. To demonstrate the usefulness of this method, the risks and benefits of fish consumption are evaluated using a single health risk and health benefit endpoint. Benefits are defined as the decrease in myocardial infarction mortality resulting from fish consumption, and risks are defined as the increase in neurodevelopmental delay (i.e., talking) resulting from prenatal methylmercury exposure. Fish consumption rates are based on information from Washington State. Using the proposed framework, the net health impact of eating fish is estimated in either a whole population or a population consisting of women of childbearing age and their children. It is demonstrated that across a range of fish methylmercury concentrations (0-1 ppm) and intake levels (0-25 g/day), individuals would have to weight the neurodevelopmental effects 6 times more (in the whole population) or 250 times less (among women of child-bearing age and their children) than the myocardial infarction benefits in order to be ambivalent about whether or not to consume fish. These methods can be generalized to evaluate the merits of other public health and risk management programs that involve trade-offs between risks and benefits.     

多义范畴习得与使用的语义-语用模型——HOT范畴的个案研究

认知语义学将多义范畴诠释为由典型义项经家族相似性派生出非典型义项的放射性链状结构,其实质是字面义—隐喻义的标准设想。笔者对这种观点提出了质疑。在跨学科定性研究和语言测试定量分析的基础上,笔者提出多义范畴习得与使用的语义—语用模型。该模型包含语义与语用两个层面,前者包括具有非多义性的概念层和多义性的词汇层;后者则包括诸多语用因素。在此框架下,多义范畴的习得与使用包括以下两个过程:(1)概念层中的心理基本概念被具体辖域激活形成词汇层中具有平等地位的语义表征;(2)语用层中的限制因素,如熟悉度、文化、刺激、语频和语境等综合作用于词汇层中各语义表征,最能满足以上一整套限制条件的义项成为突显义而被优先输出。