游牧经济的机动性分析--以古代蒙古族的游牧经济为例

1800年以前,世界的军事优势一直控制在生活在亚欧大陆腹地的游牧民族手中.在此前两千五百多年间,游牧民族曾经在亚欧大陆纵横驰骋,东亚、南亚、西亚和欧洲的许多农业帝国纷纷被来自草原的游牧民族所吞并,其原因何在呢?本文认为,这正是游牧民族独特的生产方式赋予游牧民族的灵活的机动性所致.     

Mixed-effects Models with Skewed Distributions for Time-varying Decay Rate in HIV Dynamics

After initiation of treatment, HIV viral load has multiphasic changes, which indicates that the viral decay rate is a time-varying process. Mixed-effects models with different time-varying decay rate functions have been proposed in literature. However, there are two unresolved critical issues: (i) it is not clear which model is more appropriate for practical use, and (ii) the model random errors are commonly assumed to follow a normal distribution, which may be unrealistic and can obscure important features of within- and among-subject variations. Because asymmetry of HIV viral load data is still noticeable even after transformation, it is important to use a more general distribution family that enables the unrealistic normal assumption to be relaxed. We developed skew-elliptical (SE) Bayesian mixed-effects models by considering the model random errors to have an SE distribution. We compared the performance among five SE models that have different time-varying decay rate functions. For each model, we also contrasted the performance under different model random error assumptions such as normal, Student-t, skew-normal, or skew-t distribution. Two AIDS clinical trial datasets were used to illustrate the proposed models and methods. The results indicate that the model with a time-varying viral decay rate that has two exponential components is preferred. Among the four distribution assumptions, the skew-t and skew-normal models provided better fitting to the data than normal or Student-t model, suggesting that it is important to assume a model with a skewed distribution in order to achieve reasonable results when the data exhibit skewness.     

海河图书馆应用地下储能技术的可行性分析

海河图书馆是天津市海河开发规划确定的公建项目.按照天津市政府提出的建筑应达到"三步节能"的要求,该项目已被列入天津市节能建筑示范工程.     

袁宏道净土思想略论

明代著名辅教居士袁宏道,早年矢志参禅,洞有所入.然亦颇沾"狂禅"习气,一悟便休,不究如来之了义、不知达摩之玄机,空腹高心,卑视净土法门,甚至于呵佛骂祖、斥教遮相.所幸生死心切,故能触机猛省,毅然摒弃偏空之见,悟修并重,乘戒兼行,豁悟达摩祖师说罪福之皆虚与永明延寿和尚言万善之总是,均为祛迷拯溺之论,实无彼此抵牾之处.于是至诚归心净土,借念佛之警切提醒参禅之深心,复藉参门之洞彻坚固净土之信行.嗣后,为广利蹇滞浊界之群生,特别是为指示深陷宗教歧路和禅净宿疑而不能自拔之士,袁宏道更深入普贤愿海,博综经论,撰成《西方合论》十卷,力主净土诸经与《大方广佛华严经》、《法华经》的不分优劣,并融贯教理、广破邪疑,直开正信、径指趣归.     

生态旅游与旅游生态化辨析

10多年来,生态旅游在中国的发展虽然很快,但理论上悬而未决的争论还较多,集中表现在生态旅游是旅游产品还是旅游发展模式、生态旅游是高档旅游还是大众旅游、生态旅游对象是自然区域还是可以包括地方文化区域等三个方面。同时在发展过程中,生态旅游在中国的实践中也出现了很多非生态化现象和"泛化"现象。这些现象的出现归根结底是由于将生态旅游与旅游生态化混为一谈造成的。本文通过对"生态旅游"、"旅游生态化"的辨析,对相关问题作了初步解答,并试图还原生态旅游的本意,探索今后生态旅游发展的正确途径。     

Co-morbidity Between Gambling Problems and Depressive Symptoms: A Longitudinal Perspective of Risk and Protective Factors

In both adolescents and adults, gambling problems and depressive symptoms co-occur and share some common risk factors (e.g., impulsivity and socio-family risk). However, little is known about (1) the developmental course of the co-morbidity of these problems; (2) variables that may moderate the effect of these common risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Of specific interest could be individuals’ social relationships with significant others such as parents and friends, because research shows that they moderate the effect of other risk factors on gambling problems and depressive symptoms. The goals of this study were to: (a) identify developmental pathways for gambling problems and depressive symptoms, with a focus on co-morbidity; (b) assess the moderating effect of relationship quality with parents and friends on the link between common risk factors and the trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Study participants were 878 males. Predictors were assessed during childhood and adolescence and gambling problems and depressive symptoms were assessed in late adolescence and young adulthood. Latent class analysis revealed four distinct joint trajectories of gambling problems and depressive symptoms. Subsequent logistic regression revealed that impulsivity predicted membership in all pathogenic trajectories, and quality of the relationship with parents predicted membership in depressogenic trajectories. In addition, we found that the membership in the comorbid trajectory can be predicted by an interaction between friendship quality and socio-family risk.     

习近平总书记关于高校体育工作重要论述的逻辑意蕴与实践路径

习近平总书记关于高校体育工作重要论述是新时代中华民族所认同体育文化的价值取向、精神气质、思维方式与行动纲要的总和,它是大学生思想教育工作发展创新的内在需要。高校通过以中华体育文化精神为基石,融入社会主义主流价值;优化体育文化育人环境,让体育文化叫好又叫座;深入挖掘体育文化活动内涵,打造经典体育文化品牌;丰富体育文化载体形式,使体育文化育人产生倍增效果,多种实践途径践行习近平总书记关于高校体育工作的重要论述,促推中华民族体育强国梦的实现。     

What is Integration? A Comparative View from Immigrants and Municipal Policy

The ongoing project of citizenship construction in societies receiving international immigration demands a perspective that takes into account the interests, views and needs of all socio-demographic groups, including those of newcomers as potential new citizens. We interviewed representatives of 16 immigrant associations operating in the Spanish autonomous community of Galicia, reviewed immigration policy in 13 Spanish (Galician) municipalities, and interviewed 20 municipal government staff members who put these into practice. With this research, we aim to explore the perspectives of immigrants with respect to their own integration and to examine how these compare with local policies designed to facilitate these processes. By comparing the immigrant representatives' perceptions with local policy discourses and practice, our study reveals how local integration practice is not only inconsistent with its own policy discourse but also fails to consider and include immigrants' own understandings of what integration means and how it can be achieved.     

无垣之“城”——近代西安回民社区结构探微

历史以来西安回民社区的居住空间结构与其宗教社会内部的组织秩序同构.回民社区在适应国家政令及地方法规制度管理的同时,以清真寺为核心,以教坊为组织形式,教民的宗教生活与日常生活相结合.教坊制度下回民小集中的空间结构后面隐藏着的是居民的行为活动与教坊的物质空间秩序、社会生活组织秩序的高度统一,即物质形态与精神生活的统一,构成了西安回民坊巷居住和社会组织结构的特征.     

社会转型与少数民族价值观变迁:以西南地区为例

从西南少数民族历史发展进程来看,其生活环境相对封闭,从而对少数民族成员的自我与他者认同构成了影响,形成特定的制度体系、交往体系和价值体系。但随着改革开放和社会转型的推进,少数民族的价值观体系也发生了变化,具体表现在价值主体、价值运行以及身份认知三个层次上,它们共同促进了少数民族的认同序列重构。