Costly and discrete communication: an experimental investigation

Language is an imperfect and coarse means of communicating information about a complex and nuanced world. We report on an experiment designed to capture this feature of communication. The messages available to the sender imperfectly describe the state of the world; however, the sender can improve communication, at a cost, by increasing the complexity or elaborateness of the message. Here the sender learns the state of the world, then sends a message to the receiver. The receiver observes the message and provides a best guess about the state. The incentives of the players are aligned in the sense that both sender and receiver are paid an amount which is increasing in the accuracy of the receiver’s guess. We find that the size of the language endogenously emerges as a function of the costs of communication. Specifically, we find that higher communication costs are associated with a smaller language. Although the equilibrium predictions do not perform well, this divergence occurs in a manner which is consistent with the experimental communication literature: overcommunication. We find that the sender’s payoffs, relative to equilibrium payoffs, are decreasing in the cost of communication. We also find that the receiver’s payoffs, relative to equilibrium payoffs, are increasing in the cost of communication. Finally, we find imperfections in coordination on the basis of the experimental labels.     

Lability of prenatal stress during the COVID-19 pandemic links to negative affect in infancy

The association between prenatal stress and children's socioemotional development is well established. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a particularly stressful period, which may impact the gestational environment. However, most studies to-date have examined prenatal stress at a single time point, potentially masking the natural variation in stress that occurs over time, especially during a time as uncertain as the pandemic. This study leveraged dense ecological momentary assessments from a prenatal randomized control trial to examine patterns of prenatal stress over a 14-week period (up to four assessments/day) in a U.S. sample of 72 mothers and infants. We first examined whether varied features of stress exposure (lability, mean, and baseline stress) differed depending on whether mothers reported on their stress before or during the pandemic. We next examined which features of stress were associated with 3-month-old infants' negative affect. We did not find differences in stress patterns before and during the pandemic. However, greater stress lability, accounting for baseline and mean stress, was associated with higher infant negative affect. These findings suggest that pathways from prenatal stress exposure to infant socioemotional development are complex, and close attention to stress patterns over time will be important for explicating these pathways.     

RANDOMISED RESPONSE VS. DIRECT QUESTIONING: ESTIMATING THE PREVALENCE OF ALCOHOL RELATED PROBLEMS IN A FIELD SURVEY

Fifteen hundred adults selected for a population survey from the City of Edinburgh Electoral Registers by probability sampling were allocated to randomised response interview or direct interview at random. These alternative interviewing strategies were adopted for two questions relating to attributes which might be considered stigmatising. There were no significant differences in reporting between the two methods either at aggregate or at subgroup level. The apparent failure of the randomised response method to increase estimates of the proportions with the attributes hypothesised indicates either that traditional methods are satisfactory for the collection of this sensitive information, or that randomised response was not an acceptable alternative.     

The effects of gender and type of romantic touch on perceptions of relational commitment

This study investigated the relationship between intimate touching behaviors and corresponding cognitions of relational commitment as a function of gender. One hundred fifty-two subjects were surveyed regarding perceptions of commitment for seven intimate touches. The 2-way ANOVA revealed significant effects for gender, type of touch, and the touch by gender interaction. Progressively intimate touches were associated with greater commitment. Females associated significantly higher levels of commitment than males, particularly for the more intimate touches. The discrepancy in the level of commitment inferred by gender increases as the touching behavior grows more intimate, resulting in a greater potential for miscommunication across the more intimate channels of haptic communication.     

A case study in econometric forecasting for alcoholic drinks

This paper reports on the estimation by econometric methods of demand equations for beer, spirits and wine, taken separately, using quarterly data over the period 1963 to 1978. The estimated demand equations are used to forecast demand over the 1979(1) to 1980(3) period for which actual data has recently become available, thereby providing a test, albeit not a very extensive one, of the short-term forecasting accuracy of the fitted equations conditional upon the values of the exogenous variables being known with certainty in the forecast period. The equations are also tested for stability. Finally, the paper considers the longer-term growth prospects for beer, spirits and wine consumption in the UK as the economy moves out of the current recession.     

Popularity: Does it magnify associations between popularity prioritization and the bullying and defending behavior of early adolescent boys and girls?

We investigated the contribution of popularity, popularity prioritization, and gender to the explanation of bullying and defending behavior. Participants were 191 early adolescents (124 girls and 67 boys), aged from 10.9 to 13.6 years. Results revealed that adolescents high on popularity were more likely to bully others. Greater popularity prioritization was also associated with more bullying among boys with high levels, and girls with low levels, of popularity. In addition, popularity was positively related to defending among girls, but not boys. Lower popularity prioritization also contributed to greater defending overall. The implications of these findings for understanding bullying and defending are discussed.     

On the small sample properties of norm-restricted maximum likelihood estimators for logistic regression models

This paper develops alternatives to maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for logistic regression models and compares the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimators. The MLE for the vector of underlying success probabilities has low MSE only when the true probabilities are extreme (i.e., near 0 or 1). Extreme probabilities correspond to logistic regression parameter vectors which are large in norm. A competing “restricted” MLE and an empirical version of it are suggested as estimators with better performance than the MLE for central probabilities. An approximate EM-algorithm for estimating the restriction is described. As in the case of normal theory ridge estimators, the proposed estimators are shown to be formally derivable by Bayes and empirical Bayes arguments. The small sample operating characteristics of the proposed estimators are compared to the MLE via a simulation study; both the estimation of individual probabilities and of logistic parameters are considered.     

Placement disruption in long-term kinship and nonkinship foster care

The purpose of this study was to explore factors related to placement disruption in long-term kinship and nonkinship foster care in a Nordic country.     

Job strain and psychotropic drug use among white-collar workers

The main objective of this study was to measure the association between simultaneous exposure to high psychological demand and low decision latitude at work and the use of psychotropic drugs among white-collar workers. A second objective was to determine whether social support at work modified this association. A cross-sectional study was performed that included 2786 workers from the public sector in the Greater Quebec City area. A self-administered questionnaire was used in order to evaluate psychological demand, decision latitude and social support at work. Psychotropic drug use was measured over a period of 2 days. The prevalence of psychotropic drug use among the participants was found to be 3.9%, even though 20.5% were exposed to job strain. The association between job strain and psychotropic drug use, after adjustment for social support at work, age, gender, education, family income, employment status, occupation, stressful life events, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity, was statistically significant (odds ratio: 4.5, 95% CI 1.7?12.2). Social support did not appear to modify this association. The results of this study suggest that job strain might be a determinant of psychotropic drug use among white collar workers. Social support at work does not appear, however, to modify this association.