Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

解析《赞普五史书》中有关涅赤赞普的传说

《赞普五史书》①是记录吐蕃赞普历史的重要文献,堪与敦煌藏文文献相媲美,并成了诸多藏文史籍的原始素材.《赞普五史书》首次向世人提供了吐蕃历史上十位赞普的非正常死亡原因;首次揭示了涅赤赞普并非来自天界,而是出生于波密的一个普通家庭,并透露了这个家庭被当地人当作“独脚鬼”的传说.     

后现代语境下的阿多诺的现代性哲学

阿多诺认为现代性的困境主要源于启蒙理性对自然和人性的工具性控制,以及同一性思维对偶然的、特殊的东西的压制。他的否定的辩证法,通过对概念思维的不适当性的不断自我反思,来抵制内在于一切概念思维中的同一化的强制力;而他对艺术现代性的探讨,则是寻求新的非压制性的思维和认知模式的尝试。他对启蒙理性和工具理性的批判,引起了后现代论者的共鸣,而他对新的理性和认知模型的寻求,又有助于我们避免后现代论者某些理论上的失误。因此,他是现代性的批判者,但不是后现代论者。     

略论郑振铎对中国文学现代化的贡献

本文论述郑振铎在中国文学现代化进程中所作的贡献:发起成立文学研究会,倡导“血和泪”的文学,促使新文学现实主义主潮的形成;致力于“美文”建设;创造了散文式小说,丰富了小说文体;作为一位新诗的开拓者,赋予诗歌以鲜明突出的时代精神,探索新诗体式的多样化。郑振铎对中国文学现代化的贡献是巨大的     

以“空”破“有”——论鲁迅、周作人、胡适的无神论立场

在中国现代文学史上,知识分子读佛经的现象并不罕见,但只有鲁迅、周作人、胡适等少数作家自觉地站在现代哲学的高度,真正坚持了“无神论”的空观立场,彻底地抛弃了“天人合一”的本体论思维传统,走上了自我澄明的精神之旅。以空破有使他们在寻路过程中,对信仰持一种既信又疑的审慎态度,一方面献身社会,一方面又不放弃自己的独立思考和独立个性,这是极其难得的     

共生教育

现在 ,各国都在以经济现代化为目标 ,尽可能发展和引进现代科学技术及其合理的思想观念 ,实现产业化 ,使国家富强 ,从而形成全球一体化的大交易圈。共生教育 ,就是讲授人们如何在这个大交易圈中生存的教育     

住宅产业现代化所面临的挑战

文章从住房商品化、国家产业政策和“入世”等等方面论述了住宅产业现代化所面临的挑战后,提出了住宅建设适度超前、住宅建设与城市协调发展等今后需要认真研究的几个问题。     

Nonparametric covariate adjustment for receiver operating characteristic curves

The accuracy of a diagnostic test is typically characterized using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Summarizing indexes such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used to compare different tests as well as to measure the difference between two populations. Often additional information is available on some of the covariates which are known to influence the accuracy of such measures. The authors propose nonparametric methods for covariate adjustment of the AUC. Models with normal errors and possibly non‐normal errors are discussed and analyzed separately. Nonparametric regression is used for estimating mean and variance functions in both scenarios. In the model that relaxes the assumption of normality, the authors propose a covariate‐adjusted Mann–Whitney estimator for AUC estimation which effectively uses available data to construct working samples at any covariate value of interest and is computationally efficient for implementation. This provides a generalization of the Mann–Whitney approach for comparing two populations by taking covariate effects into account. The authors derive asymptotic properties for the AUC estimators in both settings, including asymptotic normality, optimal strong uniform convergence rates and mean squared error (MSE) consistency. The MSE of the AUC estimators was also assessed in smaller samples by simulation. Data from an agricultural study were used to illustrate the methods of analysis. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:27–46; 2010 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Designing a Programme to Support Smallholder Agriculture in Mexico: Lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades

This article argues that there is a gap in current Mexican rural development policy that could be filled by a smallholder‐targeted programme. The gap exists because agricultural programmes tend to benefit better‐off farmers, while social programmes tend to focus on long‐term investment in human capital, specifically for the children of today's poor. Drawing on lessons from PROCAMPO and Oportunidades, it offers a specific design for such a programme at a time when the government is considering how to reform PROCAMPO, given that, after 15 years, it is due to come to an end.