Impersonal probability as an ideal assessment based on accessible evidence: A viable construct?

When risk analysts and others refer to the true probability of an event, it is not easy to give it a meaning which is sound and useful as a communication device for regulatory, research planning, and related purposes. An interpretation is herein offered which, unlike Bayesian probability, is impersonal and does not depend on a particular assessor; unlike Carnap's logical probability, it does not depend on information actually to hand. It is a generalization of frequency and propensity interpretations of impersonal probability applicable to unique events: an ideal assessment based on currently accessible (not in general perfect) evidence. The argument is illustrated from decision-aiding experience which motivated the enquiry.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, Division of Social and Economic Sciences. The author thanks John Pratt, Marvin Cohen, Dennis Lindley, Jon Baron, Kathy Laskey, and Stephen Watson for their most helpful review. They do not necessarily share his views.     

Reconsidering sociological theory and method after 1989

1989 was a cataclysmic year in the political history of the world and the problems facing sociology, especially political sociology, have changed radically. Unfortunately the dominant paradigms of sociology in Western Europe were not developed to deal with these problems, but rather with Western European problems during the Cold War. It has, therefore, become necessary to look at these paradigms and to ask whether, in terms of their conception of sociology, its substantive problems and methods, they are at all capable of dealing with the post‐communist world. I suggest that it is now necessary to go back to some of the concerns of classical comparative and historical sociology, particularly as they are reflected in the work of Max Weber, in order to map and to understand the political structures of the contemporary world.     

Unemployment: A labor market perspective

Twentieth century economists have made countless attempts to resolve the causes and cures of unemployment. However none have ventured to consider unemployment not as a social problem but as a market response to political and economic incentives. By treating unemployment as a labor market, where workers rationally select periods of joblessness and where special interest groups profit from unemployment, this paper develops a theoretically consistent model to explain the effects that policy and economic variables have on unemployment. Empirical results support this approach and the worker disincentive effects of UI compensation by estimating simultaneously a demand and supply for unemployment.     

Unraveling Work Reactions in a Sales Occupation: A Test of Three Models

The American economy has moved into a post-industrial society, where the main focus is now on the provision of services and the creation of knowledge rather than the manufacturing of material goods. In this context, the current project examines the job experiences of sales workers in this new economy. Based on a survey of a large Midwest sales firm, we examine the influence of various individual and work-related characteristics on four negative reactions: work dissatisfaction, lack of organizational commitment, work stress, and life stress. The study also assesses the impact on these outcomes from three theoretical perspectives: the Importation Model, the Work Role-Occupational Socialization Model, and the Work-Family Spillover Model. Using OLS regression, the analyses revealed three major conclusions. First, individual characteristics, including being a woman, had little impact on work reactions, lending little support for the Importation Model. Second, work-role experiences, particularly supervisory support and role overload, shaped job-related reactions consistent with the Work Role-Occupational Socialization Model. And third, when the intersection of work and family was examined, spillover effects were mainly confined to feelings of work and life stress, giving partial support for the Work-Family Spillover Model. This indicates that although they generally do not reduce employees' commitment to or satisfaction with their careers, family-related factors do impact levels of stress that workers endure.     

Ethnic identity and the nation state: The political sociology of multi‐cultural societies

Abstract

The question of ethnic and national identity is one which is addressed in two separate theoretical discourses. One is that of contemporary general sociological theory where it seems to be central to debates about Late Modernism, Post‐Modernism and Globalization. The other is in a much more empirically orientated branch of political sociology which is concerned with forms of solidarity and division in the nation state. This paper will be primarily located within the second type of discourse, but its aim is to suggest that its formulation of concepts is highly relevant to the clarification of issues in general sociological theory.     

Determinants of Food Safety Risks: A Multi‐disciplinary Approach*

Abstract This research employs a multi‐disciplinary approach by developing a model that draws upon psychometric, cultural, and reflexive modernization perspectives of risk perception. Using data from a 1999 national telephone survey, we tested our model on three food risks— pesticides, Salmonella, and fat. Results showed that perceptions of risks do vary by the nature of the risk investigated. Consistent with the psychometric perspective, the level of knowledge and control varied by risk, but these differences did not correspond with levels of concern. Worldview variables were correlated with perceptions of pesticides, indicating the relevance of cultural approaches. High levels of concern associated with each food risk, and the robustness of the relationship between trust and the perception of food risks, raise the possibility that trust acts as a coping mechanism, which is consistent with the reflexive modernization approach. Knowledge and trust were significantly related to all three risks.     

Three dimensions mental health professionals emphasize when judging levels of functioning of the severely mentally disabled in the community

Ratings of the level of functioning of severely disabled clients collected from staff of mental health agencies, while attractive as outcome measures, lack specificity and, at times, consistency. Three multidimensional scaling (MDS) studies were conducted to identify the dimensions staff emphasize when they compare clients as to their level of functioning. Analogues of clients were created to serve as stimuli, dissimilarity judgments of pairs of stimuli were collected, and an individual differences MDS model was applied in each study to distinguish client variance from the judges' perspectives. Ratings along specified dimensions also were collected and compared to the MDS solutions. One dimension emerged as pre-eminent, but it corresponded to many of the pre-selected dimensions, such as competence with daily living tasks, clarity of thinking, appearance and manner, and overall functioning. The other two dimensions were belligerence and openness to psychological intervention or distress with one's problems. Differences among judges were sizable; nevertheless, considerable support for emphasizing these three dimensions was found upon reviewing the contents of other assessments of functioning. Concentrating on these three dimensions of functioning may promote greater agreement among raters, highlight where functional improvements occur, and expand the coverage of functional differences without markedly increasing the costs of assessment.