An evaluation of population projections by age

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and state levels in the United States and for counties in Florida. We also compared the accuracy of state and county projections that were derived from full-blown applications of the cohort-component method with the accuracy of projections that were derived from a simpler, less data-intensive version of the method. We found that age-group error patterns are different for national projections than for subnational projections; that errors are substantially larger for some age groups than for others; that differences in errors among age groups decline as the projection horizon becomes longer; and that differences in methodological complexity have no consistent impact on the precision and bias of age-group projections.     

How parental drug use and drug treatment compliance relate to family reunification

This study uses Cox regression to assess the relationships among parental drug use, drug treatment compliance, and reunification from substitute care. The study finds that drug treatment compliance is associated with faster reunification, even when accounting for ongoing drug use and three parenting measures. The findings are consistent with a conceptual framework suggesting that certain client actions, such as drug treatment compliance, may serve as markers that substantially affect client outcomes.     

Differences in African American and White college students' drinking behaviors: consequences, harm reduction strategies, and health information sources

The authors explored the differences between African American and White college students' drinking behaviors and their attitudes toward consequences, harm-reduction strategies, and health information sources. They collected data from a randomly selected sample of 1,110 students in a large public university to examine the effects of a high-risk drinking prevention intervention. In the current analysis, they compared African American and White students on indicators of high-risk drinking, drinking consequences, harm-reduction strategies, the sources that students typically used for health information, and the believability of those sources. The African American students scored lower on drinking measures than the White students did, reported fewer negative consequences, and more regularly employed drinking-reduction strategies, with one exception--choosing a designated driver. Both African and White respondents reported that their parents were their most frequent and usual sources of health-related information and said that parents and health professionals were the most credible sources.     

'Bataille's boys': postmodernity, Fascists and football fans

In his analysis of football hooliganism, Anthony King claims to reveal the historical, conceptual scheme young, male supporters draw upon. This 'masculine vision', he states, is similar to that held by the Freikorps. Both groups are said to adhere to modernist notions of masculinity, sexuality and nationhood, reinforced by rituals which maintain boundaries between these 'proper' males and deviant 'others'. Occasionally, football hooligans breach these boundaries in acts of postmodern transgression. King also claims that fans link sex and violence in their imaginations. In this response I examine King's critique of his fellow theorists; challenge his 'Freikorps-Fans' analogy; demonstrate the problem he has in establishing the sex-violence link and question the relevance of his concept of postmodernity.     

The need for revaluation and assessment of Australian foster care programmes

This is a brief report on one aspect of a programme of applied research, in a large social welfare agency, designed to provide a basis for the evaluation of the policies, activities and structure of the agency.     

Social Amplification of Wildfire Risk: The Role of Social Interactions and Information Sources

Wildfire is a persistent and growing threat across much of the western United States. Understanding how people living in fire‐prone areas perceive this threat is essential to the design of effective risk management policies. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, we develop a conceptual model of wildfire risk perceptions that incorporates the social processes that likely shape how individuals in fire‐prone areas come to understand this risk, highlighting the role of information sources and social interactions. We classify information sources as expert or nonexpert, and group social interactions according to two dimensions: formal versus informal, and generic versus fire‐specific. Using survey data from two Colorado counties, we empirically examine how information sources and social interactions relate to the perceived probability and perceived consequences of a wildfire. Our results suggest that social amplification processes play a role in shaping how individuals in this area perceive wildfire risk. A key finding is that both “vertical” (i.e., expert information sources and formal social interactions) and “horizontal” (i.e., nonexpert information and informal interactions) interactions are associated with perceived risk of experiencing a wildfire. We also find evidence of perceived “risk interdependency”—that is, homeowners’ perceptions of risk are higher when vegetation on neighboring properties is perceived to be dense. Incorporating social amplification processes into community‐based wildfire education programs and evaluating these programs’ effectiveness constitutes an area for future inquiry.     

Conditional Generalized Liouville Distributions on the Simplex

Liouville and generalized Liouville distributions on the simplex have been proposed for modeling compositional data and have been shown to be free from the extreme independence structure that characterizes the Dirichlet class. In this article, generalized Liouville distributions are shown to be rich enough to distinguish some lesser modes of independence as well. Unfortunately, it is noted that the applicability of the Liouville family will be limited, owing to the lack of invariance with respect to the chosen fill-up value. As an alternative, a new family of simplex distributions is proposed, one that admits invariance with respect to choice of fill-up value, as well as the ability to differentiate among many forms of independence.     

Understanding Feelings and Coping with Emotional Situations: A Comparison of Maltreated and Nonmaltreated Preschoolers

The effects of maltreatment on childen's emotion knowledge (e.g., recognition of facial cues for happy, sad, mad, scared, and surprised expressions), parent- and teacher-rated social and expressive behavior (e.g., aspects of emotion regulation such as emotional intensity, regulation of emotionally-driven behavior, and classroom social competence with peers such as conflict management), and hypothetical social problem-solving skills were examined in a sample of 45 preschool-aged, predominantly African-American preschoolers. Comparisons between maltreated, high-risk, and low-risk groups revealed no reliable differences in emotion knowledge, but several significant differences in hypothetical social problem-solving skills and in parent- and teacher-rated social and expressive behavior. Specifically, maltreated children were rated high on negative emotionality and emotional support-seeking at school, and they were rated low on support-seeking at home, instrumental action at home, problem-focused social problem-solving strategies, and conflict management. In general, teachers rated maltreated children as the least competent, low-risk children as intermediate, and high-risk children as the most competent.