On the estimation of the marginal density of a moving average process

The authors present a new convolution‐type kernel estimator of the marginal density of an MA(1) process with general error distribution. They prove the √n; ‐consistency of the nonparametric estimator and give asymptotic expressions for the mean square and the integrated mean square error of some unobservable version of the estimator. An extension to MA(q) processes is presented in the case of the mean integrated square error. Finally, a simulation study shows the good practical behaviour of the estimator and the strong connection between the estimator and its unobservable version in terms of the choice of the bandwidth.     

Physical consequences of falls in the elderly: a literature review from 1995 to 2010

In the last decade, population ageing has been registered as a global phenomenon. A relation exists between falling and ageing, since falling frequency increases significantly with age. In fact, one in three older adult falls annually. Although ageing is generically associated with decrease and degeneration of psychological and physical functions, it is still not common for the correct identification of risk factors to lead to a clinical prognosis of the elder being in risk of falling. Therefore, the goal of this review article is to identify, categorise and analyse typical ageing and fall factors mentioned in the literature as well as to quantify the number of times they were referenced. The research considered hundreds of publications, but analysis was then restricted to the 87 most pertinent articles written in English and published in journals or scientific magazines between 1995 and 2010. We concluded that falls among older adults can be characterised by the following: anatomic characteristics and physiological consequences of ageing; the pathologies that induce falls, which can be neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and other diseases; causes and risk factors of falls that can be behavioural, biological, environmental or socio-economic; type of physical consequences of falls, including fractures, bruises, injuries or other physical consequences; and strategies to prevent, mitigate or rehabilitate, which can be of a physical, environmental or behavioural nature.     

Testing and Confidence estimation of the Mean of a multidimensional Gaussian Process

From the sequential observation of a multidimensional continuous time Gaussian process, whose mean vector depends linearly of a multidimensional parameter, we consider the confidential estimation of the parameter value and the testing problem of a simple hypothesis about the parameter, in presence of a nuisance variance parameter. The method is based on a previously obtained [cf. 4] point estimate for the case of a known covariance structure. We first see that this estimate is, in fact, independent of the variance parameter. For the hypotheses testing problem, the invariance under certain groups of transformations and the partial sufficiency allows to construct optimal terminal tests. Furthermore we determine the observation time necessary to control its power function. These testing results may be translated in terms of most accurate confidence sets. If the observation is stopped according to the diameter of the confidence set, under some condition, the confidence level is preserved.     

The Impacts of Gaming Expansion on Economic Growth: A Theoretical Reconsideration

This paper employs a general equilibrium framework to analyze the effects on economic growth of global expansions in casino gaming, which exports gambling services largely to non-residents. Both domestic and foreign investments in the gaming sector bring in not only substantial revenues but also positive spillover effects on related sectors and even on the entire local economy. However, an over-expansion of commercial gambling may lead to deterioration in the terms of trade with an adverse impact on real income. If this situation persists, it would not be impossible for immiserizing growth to occur. As a highly profitable sector, casino gaming may enable its operators to diversify out of this risk if they invest retained profits in non-gaming sectors to cash in on the spillover effects it has created. The gaming-dominant economy can then be directed on a more balanced and sustainable growth path, and will become less susceptible to business cycles. Indeed, economic experiences in the world’s major casino resorts are consistent basically with this argument for diversification. We believe that after the current global crisis fades away, economic growth and resulting surges in global demand for gambling services can provide further opportunities for the expansion of existing casino resorts and the development of new gaming markets.     

Gender, racial, and ethnic disclosure in NIH K-Award funded diabetes and obesity clinical trials

In 1993, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) passed The Revitalization Act (Subtitle B) which mandated that all NIH funded clinical trials have "appropriate representation" of minority and women subjects. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the mandate by examining the reporting and inclusion of minority and female subjects into NIH K-Award funded clinical trials, addressing the minority predominant diagnoses of diabetes and clinical obesity. Using the CRISP search engine and PUBMED, we selected publications published by the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) K-grant recipients during 1989-2004, associated with all the diabetes and obesity clinical trials. Studies were stratified into three timeline categories (1989-1993, pre-mandate; 1993-1996, post-mandate, and 1997-present, well past mandate) to evaluate trends in the recruiting of minorities and women before, during, and after the passing of the Revitalization Act. Of the 165 papers, only 37% disclosed race, a number that did not improve over time (p=.15), whereas 92% disclosed gender. Clinical trials that focused on females increased across the 3 timeframes (p < .001) for diabetes studies but not obesity studies. Overall, disclosure of race declined over the 3 timeframes whereas individually, the disclosure of African Americans improved.     

Psychopathology,physical complaints and health risk behaviors among youths who were victims of childhood maltreatment: A comparison between home and institutional interventions

Based on investigations of child maltreatment by Child Protective Services (CPS), several children who are identified receive some kind of individual or familial intervention. However, the literature has shown conflicting results in regard to the later functioning of the children who are target of different protective measures in different settings, compared to other youths who receive no intervention. We assessed childhood adversity, psychopathology, physical complaints and health risk behaviors among youths who received one of two different protective interventions during childhood (home vs. institutionalization group), and we compared them with youths who receive no intervention (comparison group). In total, 216 youths participated, with ages ranging from 14 to 23 years (M = 17.05 years, SD = 1.8 years; 105 males, 111 females), including 136 youths that were contacted based on their CPS records completed during their childhood, and 80 youths from the community without CPS identification.