The place of odds ratios in the study of place,race and differential occupational opportunities

Demography - During the last few decades the study of racial differences in occupational and economic attainment has progressed rapidly, both in terms of theory and research. The ecological study...     

Industrial shifts,female employment,and occupational differentiation: a dynamic model for American cities, 1960–1970

Sex-linked occupational differentiation has been seen as influenced by both the industrial structure of the economy and the sex composition of the labor force. Here, with a sample of 70 SMSAs, it was found (a) that the odds of men relative to women of joining professional and managerial occupations increased between 1960 and 1970, and (b) that this increase was dependent on the growth of tertiary industries and the greater number of women joining the cash economy. The observed effect of industrial shifts on sex-occupational differentiation, however, is argued to be a spurious consequence of the gender-composition of the work force. Specifically, the development of tertiary industries generates greater demand for female labor. Intensive recruitment of women to the labor force in turn increases occupational differentiation because females, in sex-typed labor markets, are likely to be channeled in disproportionate numbers away from upper-status occupations. The findings demonstrate that traditional modernization theory is unable to account for this. However, the results lend support to expectations derived from a labor market sex-segmentation approach.     

The effect of subsidized family planning services on reproductive behavior in the United States, 1969–1974

This paper evaluates the impact of federally subsidized family planning programs in the United States, from 1969 to 1974, on the reproductive behavior of ever-married women, 15–44 years old. The study began with an experimental design and the random assigment of areas to treatment and control but was completed as a multivariate analysis, treating program input as an interval-scaled independent variable. Using “before” and “after” area sample surveys and patient service data from operating programs, the demographic impact of the program was estimated. The impact detected was nonsignificant; according to our analysis, overall use of physician-administered contraception was not affected by the subsidized programs. The only program-induced change of activity related to reproduction that we recorded was increased use of subsidized services in study areas with high program input and increased use of private physician services where program input was low. These findings need to be interpreted with the caution usually exercised in evaluating imperfect field experiments.     

Toward a general theory of fertility: A causal modeling approach

A general theory of fertility is derived hypothesizing that the demand for children is primarily an outcome of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socioeconomic constraints. Two broad social psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first suggests that the attitudes or tastes of family members influence the demand for children. The second maintains that the nature of the husband-wife interaction (in terms of power, conflict, decision making, and marital satisfaction) determines family size. Socioeconomic variables, in the form of the normative social structure and social stratification, and economic constraints, such as income and price, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The overall theory is tested on two independent samples—one in Ankara, Turkey, the second in Mexico City, Mexico—using a structural equation methodology.     

Erosion of Advantage: Decomposing Differences in Infant Mortality Rates Among Older Non-Hispanic White and Mexican-Origin Mothers

We build on findings from recent research showing an erosion of infant survival advantage in the Mexican-origin population relative to non-Hispanic whites at older maternal ages, with patterns that differ by nativity. This runs counter to the well-documented Hispanic infant mortality paradox and suggests that weathering and/or other negative health selection mechanisms may contribute to increasing disadvantage at older maternal ages. Using the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) cohort-linked birth and infant death files, we decompose the difference in Mexican-origin non-Hispanic white infant mortality at older maternal ages to better understand the contribution of selected medical and social risk factors to components of the difference. We find differences in the distribution and effects of risk factors across the three populations of interest. The infant mortality rate (IMR) gap between Mexican-origin women and non-Hispanic whites can be attributed to numerous offsetting factors, with inadequate prenatal care standing out as a major contributor to the IMR difference. Equalizing access to and utilization of prenatal care may provide one possible route to closing the IMR gap at older maternal ages.     

Selection,selection, selection: the impact of return migration

The evidence on the impact of return migration on the sending country is rather sparse, though growing. The contribution of this paper is in addressing various selectivity problems while quantifying the impact of return migration on wages of returnees using non-experimental data. Using Egyptian household-level survey data, I estimate the wages of return migrants controlling for several selectivity biases arising from emigration choice, return migration choice, labor force participation choice, and occupational choice following return. The findings provide strong evidence that overseas temporary migration results in a wage premium upon return, even after controlling for the various potential selection biases. However, the estimates underscore the significance of controlling for both emigration and return migration selections. Ignoring the double selectivity in migration would overestimate the impact of return migration on the wage premium of returnees, as migrants are positively selected relative to non-migrants, but returnees are negatively selected among migrants.     

Is Maternal and Child Health Service use a Causal Gateway to Subsequent Contraceptive use?: A Multi-Country Study

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between MCH service utilization and contraceptive use in five countries: Bolivia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Morocco, and Tanzania. The analysis is carried out at the level of the individual woman, with contraceptive-use status modeled as a function of: (1) the availability, quality, and packaging of MCH and family planning services; (2) community- and individual-level determinants of health service and contraceptive use; and (3) intensity of prior MCH service use. Data for the analysis comes from DHS data on women of reproductive age linked with data from service-availability surveys. We use full-information, maximum-likelihood regression techniques to control for the effects of unobserved heterogeneity that might otherwise bias our estimates. In three of the five countries (Morocco, Guatemala, and Indonesia) the results of the analysis suggest that the intensity of MCH service use is positively associated with subsequent contraceptive use among women, even after controlling for observed and unobserved individual- and community-level factors. This result lends support to the proposition that, at least in the context of these three countries, the intensity of MCH service per se use does have a “causal” impact on subsequent contraceptive use, even after controlling for factors that “predispose” sample women to use health care services.     

Two Population-Environment Regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990

This paper analyzes factors that affect net migration rates in counties in the U.S. Great Plains between 1930 and 1990, emphasizing the roles of weather (especially drought), environmental amenities, employment, and population, making use of a rich county-level data set. Using a pooled time series model the paper shows that environment is important in population processes, with weather and agricultural change more important in the 1930s and 1940s, and environmental amenities more important in later time periods. The paper provides important insights into how environmental impacts on migration might change over time, and how those changes might be measured.     

Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana

This paper examines the way in which migration and urban residence operate to alter fertility outcomes. While urban-rural fertility differentials have long been established for most developing societies, the nature of these differences among migrants and between migrants and those of succeeding generations is not well understood. The evidence presented here suggests that rural-urban migration and urbanization may contribute positively to processes of fertility transition. Using data from the 1998 Kumasi Peri-Urban Survey, which included a 5-year retrospective monthly calendar of childbearing, we suggest that migrants adapt quickly to an urban environment. Our results also reveal generational differences in recent and cumulative fertility. While migrants exhibit higher cumulative fertility than urban residents of the second and third generation, their fertility is significantly lower than rural averages in Ghana. Children of migrants exhibit childbearing patterns quite similar to those in higher-order generations. Most noteworthy is the nature of the disparities in childbearing patterns between migrants and the succeeding generations. Migrant women have higher lifetime fertility than urban natives. Migrant women also exhibit higher fertility over the last 5 years than second generation or high-order urban natives. But these first generation women exhibit lower fertility (vs. urban natives) for the year immediately prior to the survey. These patterns lend support to an interpretation that combines rather than opposes theories of selectivity, disruption, adaptation and socialization. We conclude by discussing mechanisms that might explain these interrelated processes of fertility adjustment and suggest that policies discouraging rural-urban migration need to be revisited.     

The relationship between childbearing and transitions from marriage and cohabitation in Britain

In this article, we describe a general framework for the analysis of correlated event histories, with an application to a study of partnership transitions and fertility among a cohort of British women. Using a multilevel, multistate competing-risks model, we examine the relationship between prior fertility outcomes (the presence and characteristics of children and current pregnancy) and the dissolution of marital and cohabiting unions and movements from cohabitation to marriage. Using a simultaneous-equations model, we model these partnership transitions jointly with fertility, allowing for correlation between the unobserved woman-level characteristics that affect each process. The analysis is based on the partnership and birth histories that were collected for the 1958 birth cohort (National Child Development Study) aged 16-42. The findings indicate that preschool children have a stabilizing effect on their parents 'partnership, whether married or cohabiting, but the effect is weaker for older children. There is also evidence that although pregnancy precipitates marriage among cohabitors, the odds of marriage decline to prepregnancy levels following a birth.