The Positive Effects of Easy Goals on Decision Quality and Risk Propensity in an MCPLP Task

In this study the potential performance benefits of easy goals were examined within the multiple cue probability learning paradigm (MCPLP). Specifically, the effects of varying levels of goal difficulty on performance and risk propensity (used to define a form of commitment) were investigated. With few exceptions, previous studies demonstrated support for difficult goals. In this study, contrary to the majority of past evidence, as goals became easier decision quality significantly improved. Moreover, risk propensity increased with easier goals and, as suggested by a post-hoc analysis, had more direct impact on decision makers’ behaviors than goal levels. Goal-related behavior in complex MCPLP tasks appears to significantly differ from the majority of goal evidence in other types of research due to the tendency for subjects to view complex task properties in the same context as goal levels.     

Using Multiple Methods to Provide Prediction Bands of K-12 Enrollment Projections

Population Research and Policy Review - Often, demographers charged with projecting enrollments for school districts are asked to provide a range of future enrollments, as point estimates are not...     

Australia’s national urban policy: The smart cities agenda in perspective

The Australian Government's attempts at national urban policy have been sporadic and inconsistent, under the constraints of constitutional, financial, ideological and political factors. This paper concerns the recent resurgence of national urban policy under the rubric of “smart cities” adopted by the Turnbull Government and carried on by the incumbent Morrison Government. It investigates how this round of smart cities agenda articulates with Australia's political tradition of national urban policy to seek continuity and change, through comparing historical policies, unpacking major smart cities programmes, identifying explanatory factors and critically commenting on its innovation and legacy. Drawing upon these analyses, this paper argues that understanding the smart cities agenda needs to move beyond the political, ideological “to-and-fro” pendulum to national urban policy observed in history. Rather, it resonates with a globalised policy norm established upon the city-based global integration and competition, driven by an imperative of transitioning to a knowledge economy and pursuing innovation capacity. It is too early to judge whether the smart cities agenda will bring changes to Australian cities in the way it wishes, since it involves long-term infrastructure investment and urban development projects. However, a comprehensive and consistent national urban policy to govern the Australian system of cities and towns has not been established yet.     

“I Really Belong Here”: Civic Capacity-Building among Returning Citizens

This article focuses on unlikely movement actors whose civic engagement has been understudied: people with criminal records (“returning citizens”). We present findings from 18 months of ethnographic research with members (leaders) of Fighting to Overcome Records and Create Equality (FORCE), a civic group led by returning citizens. FORCE leaders received institutional support from Community Renewal Society (CRS), a larger faith and community-based organization, to lead a rights reform movement in Chicago. Findings suggest that FORCE leaders constructed notions of kinship, recognition, and power through civic capacity-building efforts—and that social belonging was core to such capacity-building efforts. While bonding social belonging occurred as FORCE leaders formed kinship with people facing similar social and economic marginality, bridging social belonging emerged as leaders felt recognized by CRS staff organizers, affiliates, and elected officials. Bonding and bridging social belonging enabled FORCE leaders, who faced constant social exclusion in society, to experience much needed kinship, recognition, and power. Future studies should continue to uncover how local capacity-building processes have life-changing relational effects on movement participants from socially and economically marginalized groups.     

Industrial Policy Capture in Taiwan and South Korea

Whatever the theoretical merits of an industrial policy, in practice state incentives in support of infant industry are difficult to withdraw once they have been granted. Infant maturation is thereby delayed, resulting in ‘policy capture’ which confers rents on the assisted firms at the expense of consumers and/or taxpayers. The process is well-documented in poorly managed economies pursuing autarkic industrial policies (Auty, 1994a). This article examines evidence of policy capture in well-managed economies pursuing competitive industrial policies. Examples are drawn from the heavy (and chemical) industry drives of South Korea (hereafter Korea) and Taiwan, but the research is first set in the context of the industrial policy debate.     

A semi-parametric method for estimating the beta coefficients of the hidden two-sided asset return jumps

ABSTRACT

We introduce a new methodology for estimating the parameters of a two-sided jump model, which aims at decomposing the daily stock return evolution into (unobservable) positive and negative jumps as well as Brownian noise. The parameters of interest are the jump beta coefficients which measure the influence of the market jumps on the stock returns, and are latent components. For this purpose, at first we use the Variance Gamma (VG) distribution which is frequently used in modeling financial time series and leads to the revelation of the hidden market jumps' distributions. Then, our method is based on the central moments of the stock returns for estimating the parameters of the model. It is proved that the proposed method provides always a solution in terms of the jump beta coefficients. We thus achieve a semi-parametric fit to the empirical data. The methodology itself serves as a criterion to test the fit of any sets of parameters to the empirical returns. The analysis is applied to NASDAQ and Google returns during the 2006–2008 period.     

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...