Experienced Well-Being and Labor Market Status: The Role of Pleasure and Meaning

Social Indicators Research - This paper examines the experienced well-being of employed and unemployed workers. We use the survey-adapted Day Reconstruction Method of the Innovation Sample of the...     

Social Evolution and Environmental Context: Explanative Pluralism and Potentiality

We identify four common, but we argue fallacious, reasons social scientists object to theories that rely on environmental conditions to explain variation in the evolution of societies. First, some sociologists exclude environmental forces as beyond the domain of sociology. Second, environmental theories are often pejoratively labeled “determinist,” and rejected on those grounds. Third, environmental theories are regularly dismissed as being functionalist. Fourth, environmental theories are frequently charged with being Eurocentric and serving to justify colonialism and social inequalities. We argue that although there are examples of theories that fail in these regards, there is no inherent reason that environmental theories are more prone to these limitations and problems than are more sociologically “pure” theories. We argue that sociology should strive to be more transdisciplinary and can benefit from consideration of environmental conditions.     

Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging

How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.     

USING THE PARETO DISTRIBUTION TO IMPROVE ESTIMATES OF TOPCODED EARNINGS

Inconsistent censoring in the public‐use March Current Population Survey (CPS) limits its usefulness in measuring labor earnings trends, as previous approaches for imputing topcoded earnings systematically understate top earnings. Using Pareto estimation methods with less‐censored internal data, we create an enhanced cell‐mean series to capture top earnings in the public‐use data. Annual earnings inequality trends since 1963 using our series largely mirror those found by Kopczuk, Saez, and Song using social security administration data for commerce and industry workers. When we extend our analysis to 2013 and consider all workers, earnings inequality levels are higher but its growth is more modest. (JEL C81, D31, J01)     

Social-ecological innovation: adaptive responses to urban environmental conditions

Novel approaches to natural resource management, particularly those which promote stakeholder participation, have been put forward as fundamental ingredients for establishing resilient, polycentric forms of environmental governance. This is nowhere more pertinent than in the case of the complex adaptive systems associated with urban areas. Decentralisation of urban green space management has been posited as an element thereof which, according to resilience thinking, should contribute to the adaptive capacity of cities and the ecosystem services upon which they rely. Implicit in this move towards increased adaptive capacity is the ability to manage through innovation. Although the importance of innovation towards system adaptability has been acknowledged, little work has thus far been carried out which demonstrates that innovative use of urban green space represents a form of adaptive response to environmental conditions. The current paper reports on research which maps examples of organised social-ecological innovation (OSEI) in an urban study area and evaluates them as adaptive responses to local environmental conditions which may contribute to system resilience. The results present OSEI as a coherent body of responses to local social and environmental deprivation, exhibiting diversity and adaptability according to individual contexts. The study therefore provides evidence for the importance of local stakeholder-led innovation as in the building of adaptive capacity in urban social-ecological systems.     

Analysis of California propositions: An experiment in the empirical revelation of shared mental models

This paper uses factor analysis to analyze Californians’ voting on 12 propositions considered during the 2008 general election. The result is to create quantitative representations of shared mental models. After generating two county-level shared mental model indices, the indices are further examined to explain their variation across counties and to evaluated their performance as substitutes for previous presidential voting as an independent variable in a presidential voting model.     

The Value of Information in Decision‐Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa

Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.