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71.
Bonuses in the finance sector may be based on too short time intervals for environmental and social factors to be taken into account in investment decisions. We report two experiments to investigate whether investors prefer short-term to long-term bonuses. In Experiment 1 employing 27 undergraduates, preferences were measured for four short-term certain bonuses, evenly distributed across a time interval, and one certain long-term bonus at the end of the time interval. A majority chose the short-term bonuses, and in order for the long-term bonus to be equally preferred it had to be about 40% higher than the four added short-term bonuses. Experiment 2 employing another 36 undergraduates introduced outcome uncertainty that more accurately reflects the choices stock investors face. The participants again choose between a long-term bonus and four distributed short-term bonuses. It was shown that uncertainty made more participants prefer the long-term bonus to the added short-term bonuses than when the outcome was certain. A smaller increase of the long-term bonus of about 20% was now required to make it equally attractive as the four added short-term bonuses.  相似文献   
72.
We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.  相似文献   
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Cognitive-behavioural parenting programs provide caregivers with alternative strategies to harsh disciplining practices but the choice of programs that are evidence-based in Australia is limited. Australian community service workers suggest that having a choice of evidence-based programs is important when matching programs to client needs, and that 1-2-3 Magic is a program used widely in Australia despite its small Australian evidence base. The efficacy of the 1-2-3 Magic program has previously been shown in a controlled trial in an Australian university research setting but little is known about its effectiveness in a “real-world” setting. This study examined a three-session group-format of the Australian 1-2-3 Magic & Emotion Coaching program in a typical metropolitan community service setting. Thirty-eight caregivers with children aged 2–6 years reported a significant decrease in disruptive child behaviour (ECBI), permissive parenting (PS), and parental depression and stress (DASS) from pre- to post-intervention, with results maintained at 3-month follow-up. While these findings suggest that a brief 1-2-3 Magic program is beneficial, it is important to note that methodological limitations (intervention-group only study design and possible confounding variables) do not allow ruling out alternative causes for these improvements. Further research will be needed to confirm that this program can generalise to “real-world” settings.  相似文献   
75.
In this study, we examined the moderating influences of gender and age with respect to testing the heritability of leadership emergence. A large data base of 12,112 twins from Sweden was used in the current study to decompose the variance of emergent leadership into an unobservable genetic component and environmental components that are either common or unshared among twin pairs. Consistent with prior leadership research on genetics, we found that a genetic factor is able to explain a significant proportion of the variation across individuals in predicting how twins perceive their emergent leadership behavior (about 44% for women and 37% for men). Furthermore, we also found that the magnitude of genetic influence on emergent leadership varied with age, but only for women with the heritability estimate being highest for the mid-age women versus lowest for the older women. Implications for advancing research on the genetic and environmental influences on leadership emergence are discussed.  相似文献   
76.
Social Indicators Research - This paper examines the experienced well-being of employed and unemployed workers. We use the survey-adapted Day Reconstruction Method of the Innovation Sample of the...  相似文献   
77.
We identify four common, but we argue fallacious, reasons social scientists object to theories that rely on environmental conditions to explain variation in the evolution of societies. First, some sociologists exclude environmental forces as beyond the domain of sociology. Second, environmental theories are often pejoratively labeled “determinist,” and rejected on those grounds. Third, environmental theories are regularly dismissed as being functionalist. Fourth, environmental theories are frequently charged with being Eurocentric and serving to justify colonialism and social inequalities. We argue that although there are examples of theories that fail in these regards, there is no inherent reason that environmental theories are more prone to these limitations and problems than are more sociologically “pure” theories. We argue that sociology should strive to be more transdisciplinary and can benefit from consideration of environmental conditions.  相似文献   
78.
How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.  相似文献   
79.
Inconsistent censoring in the public‐use March Current Population Survey (CPS) limits its usefulness in measuring labor earnings trends, as previous approaches for imputing topcoded earnings systematically understate top earnings. Using Pareto estimation methods with less‐censored internal data, we create an enhanced cell‐mean series to capture top earnings in the public‐use data. Annual earnings inequality trends since 1963 using our series largely mirror those found by Kopczuk, Saez, and Song using social security administration data for commerce and industry workers. When we extend our analysis to 2013 and consider all workers, earnings inequality levels are higher but its growth is more modest. (JEL C81, D31, J01)  相似文献   
80.
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