Transient detailed balance and product form for reaction networks

This paper explores the boundary of the set of reaction networks that have an exact transient (truncated) multidimensional Poisson or product-form distribution for the number of particles of different types. Motivated by the birth–death process, we introduce the notions of transient detailed balance and delay functions, and use these notions to obtain the novel transient product-form distribution in a coagulation-fragmentation process for polymers with a tree-like structure from that of the pure coagulation process.     

Stream salamander responses to varying degrees of urbanization within Maryland’s piedmont physiographic province

The main objective of this study was to determine how stream salamander assemblages and species respond to varying levels of impervious surface cover within Maryland’s Piedmont physiographic province. We sampled stream salamanders in 21 first-order streams located in watersheds representing a range of impervious surface cover (0–24 %) across the northeastern part of Maryland’s Piedmont region. Habitat data, including stream substrate and riparian characteristics, were measured at each site. Eurycea bislineata was the predominant species of stream salamander encountered during this study (> 99 % of individuals) and most of these individuals were larvae (> 92 %). Consequently, statistical analysis was limited to E. bislineata larvae. We were unable to detect a difference in E. bislineata abundances or body mass index’s among varying levels of impervious surface cover % or any individual site habitat variables alone. These results suggest that in smaller watersheds within the Piedmont of Maryland, local habitat variables, in conjunction with land use variables, are necessary in determining the abundance and body mass index of E. bislineata larvae populations. This study makes a strong case for halting the over-simplification of the relationship between urbanization and the presence/abundance of stream salamanders.

     

Infusing Career Development to Strengthen Middle School English Language Arts Curricula

An approach is presented for strengthening middle school standards‐based English language arts (ELA) classroom instruction by infusing theory‐ and research‐supported career development constructs and practices. Over an 8‐week period, 90 urban 7th graders participated in an integrated ELA–career development curriculum. Career agency emerged as an important construct for students. It was related to key markers of ELA achievement (i.e., standardized test scores, grades, and positive change in 6th‐ to 7th‐grade test scores) and elaborated on in nuanced ways by students in their written narratives. Four themes related to career agency were identified in student writings: time perspective, challenges of self‐direction, career development, and social and emotional development. Advantages for students and schools related to synergy, scale, and sustainability are discussed.     

A Comparative Pharmacokinetic Estimate of Mercury in U.S. Infants Following Yearly Exposures to Inactivated Influenza Vaccines Containing Thimerosal

The use of thimerosal preservative in childhood vaccines has been largely eliminated over the past decade in the United States because vaccines have been reformulated in single‐dose vials that do not require preservative. An exception is the inactivated influenza vaccines, which are formulated in both multidose vials requiring preservative and preservative‐free single‐dose vials. As part of an ongoing evaluation by USFDA of the safety of biologics throughout their lifecycle, the infant body burden of mercury following scheduled exposures to thimerosal preservative in inactivated influenza vaccines in the United States was estimated and compared to the infant body burden of mercury following daily exposures to dietary methylmercury at the reference dose established by the USEPA. Body burdens were estimated using kinetic parameters derived from experiments conducted in infant monkeys that were exposed episodically to thimerosal or MeHg at identical doses. We found that the body burden of mercury (AUC) in infants (including low birth weight) over the first 4.5 years of life following yearly exposures to thimerosal was two orders of magnitude lower than that estimated for exposures to the lowest regulatory threshold for MeHg over the same time period. In addition, peak body burdens of mercury following episodic exposures to thimerosal in this worst‐case analysis did not exceed the corresponding safe body burden of mercury from methylmercury at any time, even for low‐birth‐weight infants. Our pharmacokinetic analysis supports the acknowledged safety of thimerosal when used as a preservative at current levels in certain multidose infant vaccines in the United States.     

Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

Point Estimates of Test Sensitivity and Specificity from Sample Means and Variances

In a wide variety of biomedical and clinical research studies, sample statistics from diagnostic marker measurements are presented as a means of distinguishing between two populations, such as with and without disease. Intuitively, a larger difference between the mean values of a marker for the two populations, and a smaller spread of values within each population, should lead to more reliable classification rules based on this marker. We formalize this intuitive notion by deriving practical, new, closed-form expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of three different discriminant tests defined in terms of the sample means and standard deviations of diagnostic marker measurements. The three discriminant tests evaluated are based, respectively, on the Euclidean distance and the Mahalanobis distance between means, and a likelihood ratio analysis. Expressions for the effects of measurement error are also presented. Our final expressions assume that the diagnostic markers follow independent normal distributions for the two populations, although it will be clear that other known distributions may be similarly analyzed. We then discuss applications drawn from the medical literature, although the formalism is clearly not restricted to that application.     

Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.     

A Preliminary Evaluation of the 1-2-3-Magic Parenting Program in an Australian Community Services Setting

Cognitive-behavioural parenting programs provide caregivers with alternative strategies to harsh disciplining practices but the choice of programs that are evidence-based in Australia is limited. Australian community service workers suggest that having a choice of evidence-based programs is important when matching programs to client needs, and that 1-2-3 Magic is a program used widely in Australia despite its small Australian evidence base. The efficacy of the 1-2-3 Magic program has previously been shown in a controlled trial in an Australian university research setting but little is known about its effectiveness in a “real-world” setting. This study examined a three-session group-format of the Australian 1-2-3 Magic & Emotion Coaching program in a typical metropolitan community service setting. Thirty-eight caregivers with children aged 2–6 years reported a significant decrease in disruptive child behaviour (ECBI), permissive parenting (PS), and parental depression and stress (DASS) from pre- to post-intervention, with results maintained at 3-month follow-up. While these findings suggest that a brief 1-2-3 Magic program is beneficial, it is important to note that methodological limitations (intervention-group only study design and possible confounding variables) do not allow ruling out alternative causes for these improvements. Further research will be needed to confirm that this program can generalise to “real-world” settings.