Forecasting the market demand for waste paper

In a recent article in this journal, Livesey and Barcena supplied an interesting but necessarily superficial analysis of the market for waste paper. Their essential conclusion was that, faced with future shortages, and hence increased prices of wood pulp, the paper and board industry would be forced to rely more heavily on secondary fibre. In turn, they felt that ‘in order to ensure an adequate supply of waste paper, governments may need to exert a greater degree of influence over the market than they do at present’.This paper seeks to provide a more rigorous analysis of the ‘waste paper problem’ in terms of future demand and fluctuations in that demand. It also corrects some misconceptions in the paper by Livesey and Barcena as to the likely sources of future supply and the economics of securing those supplies.     

Max-stable processes for modeling extremes observed in space and time

Max-stable processes have proved to be useful for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. For statistical inference it is often assumed that there is no temporal dependence; i.e., that the observations at spatial locations are independent in time. In a first approach we construct max-stable space–time processes as limits of rescaled pointwise maxima of independent Gaussian processes, where the space–time covariance functions satisfy weak regularity conditions. This leads to so-called Brown–Resnick processes. In a second approach, we extend Smith’s storm profile model to a space–time setting. We provide explicit expressions for the bivariate distribution functions, which are equal under appropriate choice of the parameters. We also show how the space–time covariance function of the underlying Gaussian process can be interpreted in terms of the tail dependence function in the limiting max-stable space–time process.     

Book Reviews and Book Notes

The authors provide an overview of children's books published in the United States during the last decade (2000–2010) that deal with Mexico and Mexican people. Suggested guidelines for selecting quality books and a list of award-winning titles are included as resources for teaching about Mexico.     

Journal reviews

Although studies of Pan‐Africanism and African nationalism have indicated that black people found London in the 1920s a suitable place to gather to discuss their future, this focus has blurred our perspective on those residents of African descent who are known to have assisted such visitors. An examination of contemporary newspapers and interviews with veterans show that there were many contacts between black Londoners in 1919 and the article attempts to indicate that these contacts were organized, regular, and extended over a number of years. The two elements in common were African descent and residence in London, suggesting that there was a black community in London in 1919.     

Role-Taking Accuracy in Medical Encounters: A Test of two Theories

Abstract

This paper tests five hypotheses derived from two contrasting theoretical perspectives on role-taking accuracy: a social contact theory and an institutional resource theory. We investigate how well doctors and patients perceive one another's perspectives in a medical encounter. The cumulative weight of the data supports the proposed social contact theory. Increased contact between residents and patients, as reflected in physician's year in residency, contributes to more accurate role-taking on the part of physicians. Conditions of social compatibility between doctors and patients vis a vis gender or race lead to more accurate role-taking. Finally, personal characteristics are better predictors of role-taking accuracy than institutional status variables such as type of residency training program or doctor's year in residency status.     

Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Sexual Intent Scale

Men have been found to attribute more sexual meaning to cross-gender interactions than women do—a finding that has come to be known as the oversexualization effect. Despite the large body of research supporting the notion that men are more biased in their perceptions than women, researchers are moving beyond gender differences and examining personality variables to identify factors that can explain and predict the oversexualization effect. However, results have been mixed. Thus, the goal of this study was to develop a measurement tool, the Sexual Intent Scale, which assesses individual differences in attributing sexual intent. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) of the Sexual Intent Scale revealed the scale has three components we termed Sexual Facility, Friendship Facility, and Sexual Empathy. Temporal reliability and convergent and construct validity as well as norms and subscale correlations are presented. Results are discussed in terms of the scale's utility and directions for future research are explored.