Before theory comes theorizing or how to make social science more interesting

The basic argument in this article is that sociology and social science more generally are today severely hampered by the lack of attention being paid to theory. Methods – qualitative as well as quantitative methods – have proven to be very useful in practical research (as opposed to theory); and as a result they dominate modern social science. They do not, however, do the job that belongs to theory. One way to redress the current imbalance between methods and theory, it is suggested, would be to pay more attention to theorizing, that is, to the actual process that precedes the final formulation of a theory; and in this way improve theory. Students of social science are today primarily exposed to finished theories and are not aware of the process that goes into the production and design of a theory. Students need to be taught how to construct a theory in practical terms (‘theorizing’); and one good way to do so is through exercises. This is the way that methods are being taught by tradition; and it helps the students to get a hands‐on knowledge, as opposed to just a reading knowledge of what a theory is all about. Students more generally need to learn how to construct a theory while drawing on empirical material. The article contains a suggestion for the steps that need to be taken when you theorize. Being trained in what sociology and social science are all about – an important precondition! – students may proceed as follows. You start out by observing, in an attempt to get a good empirical grip on the topic before any theory is introduced. Once this has been done, it may be time to name the phenomenon; and either turn the name into a concept as the next step or bring in some existing concepts in an attempt to get a handle on the topic. At this stage one can also try to make use of analogies, metaphors and perhaps a typology, in an attempt to both give body to the theory and to invest it with some process. The last element in theorizing is to come up with an explanation; and at this point it may be helpful to draw on some ideas by Charles Peirce, especially his notion of abduction. Before having been properly tested against empirical material, according to the rules of the scientific community, the theory should be considered unproven. Students who are interested in learning more about theorizing may want to consult the works of such people as Everett C. Hughes, C. Wright Mills, Ludwig Wittgenstein and James G. March. Many of the issues that are central to theorizing are today also being studied in cognitive science; and for those who are interested in pursuing this type of literature, handbooks represent a good starting point. The article ends by arguing that more theorizing will not only redress the balance between theory and methods; it will also make sociology and social science more interesting.     

INDIVIDUAL WELFARE WHEN CONSUMERS CAN SHOP FOR HEALTH INSURANCE

The statewide system of health insurance exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 will allow millions of U.S. citizens to change their health care policies more easily than they can switch automobile or homeowner insurance coverages, because deniability based on prior claim history is illegal. Focusing on this consumer endogeneity of health insurance policy choice, we examine the individual moral hazard welfare implications of a reduction in the price of medical care, which is a potential consequence of the ACA. We show that endogenous policy choice plays a key role in determining the welfare outcome. While moral hazard welfare improvement is not precluded, a distinctly possible outcome is that the consumer revises his/her choice of insurance policy so as to retain some portion of the reduction in expenditure risk caused by the medical care price decrease. In this event, moral hazard welfare loss is higher than it was before the price decrease, although the increased loss is tempered by the endogenous contract choice effect. This result resuscitates an old conventional wisdom. (JEL I11, I13, I30)     

The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation

The development of a new drug is a major undertaking and it is important to consider carefully the key decisions in the development process. Decisions are made in the presence of uncertainty and outcomes such as the probability of successful drug registration depend on the clinical development programmme. The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model was developed to support key decisions for drugs in development for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. It is configured to simulate Phase 2b and 3 trials based on the efficacy of new drugs at the end of Phase 2a, evidence about the efficacy of existing treatments, and expert opinion regarding key safety criteria. The model evaluates the performance of different development programmes with respect to the duration of disease of the target population, Phase 2b and 3 sample sizes, the dose(s) of the experimental treatment, the choice of comparator, the duration of the Phase 2b clinical trial, the primary efficacy outcome and decision criteria for successfully passing Phases 2b and 3. It uses Bayesian clinical trial simulation to calculate the probability of successful drug registration based on the uncertainty about parameters of interest, thereby providing a more realistic assessment of the likely outcomes of individual trials and sequences of trials for the purpose of decision making. In this case study, the results show that, depending on the trial design, the new treatment has assurances of successful drug registration in the range 0.044–0.142 for an ACR20 outcome and 0.057–0.213 for an ACR50 outcome. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finding erotic oases: locating the sites of men's same-sex anonymous sexual encounters

Because anonymous sexual relations between two men are widely considered deviant many men seeking such activities look to erotic oases-natural environments appropriated for covert, often furtive sexual purposes. Previous research on erotic oases has focused on characteristics of involved men and processes of locating, negotiating with, and consummating sexual relations with others. This study draws on one major Web site listing of "cruising places" in the United States to identify common locations for erotic oases. Results show that the most common locations identified as erotic oases by users are public parks, adult bookstores, health clubs, and college campuses. Locations most likely to be listed as believed to be under law enforcement surveillance are outdoor, high traffic locations. Based on these results existing research has only begun to examine the most common locations for this highly stigmatized, deviant behavior and subculture.     

Pet Dogs Benefit Owners’ Health: A ‘Natural Experiment’ in China

This paper reports results from a ‘natural experiment’ taking place in China on the impact of dogs on owners’ health. Previous Western research has reported modest health benefits, but results have remained controversial. In China pets were banned in urban areas until 1992. Since then dog ownership has grown quite rapidly in the major cities, especially among younger women. In these quasi-experimental conditions, we hypothesise that dog ownership will show greater health benefits than in the West. Results are given from a survey of women aged 25–40 in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou (N = 3031). Half the respondents owned dogs and half did not. Owners reported better health-related outcomes. They exercised more frequently, slept better, had higher self-reported fitness and health, took fewer days off sick from work and were seen less by doctors. The concluding section indicates how these results may be integrated and suggests further research on the potential economic benefits of pets.

Workers' Compensation and Family and Medical Leave Act Claim Contagion

At $60 billion per year, the workers' compensation system has come under increased scrutiny as firms, insurers, and researchers study the dynamics of claim filing. The Family and Medical Leave Act also covers most workers, and there has been very little research concerning the effects of FMLA legislation on employment. One hitherto neglected research area in both workers' compensation and FMLA is claim contagion. That is, as a claim is filed within a workgroup, does this increase the likelihood that others within the same workgroup will also file claims? We find the answer to be yes. We also find that this contagion effect is subject to diminishing returns to scale, however, in the sense that the claims probability increases at a decreasing rate as fellow employees' claims frequency increases. We argue that this is consistent with a model in which workers learn about filing a workers' compensation or FMLA claim from other workers.     

Do theories of crime or violence explain race differences in delinquency?

We examine race differences in delinquency using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We use a new method that permits an examination of offense specialization. We argue that an examination of offense patterns provides an opportunity for testing theoretical explanations of race effects. If race differences in violent crime reflect race differences in serious crime, then theories of crime can explain race effects. Otherwise, theories of violence are needed to explain the phenomenon. Our results suggest that black adolescents have higher rates of violence, particularly armed violence, but they do not have higher rates of serious (or minor) property or drug crime. Race differences in violence are generally stronger for adolescents who would otherwise be at lower risk: girls and adolescents from educated and intact families. Puerto Rican adolescents also have higher rates of violence than Anglos, but other Hispanic groups do not. We conclude with a discussion of the implication of the empirical literature (including our results) for various theoretical explanations of race differences in violence.     

A METHODOLOGY FOR DECISION MAKING THROUGH QUEUING ANALYSIS

Many queuing situations present themselves in which multiple alternatives should be evaluated. This is especially true in cases where the alternatives refer to the number of service channels and types of service channels to be utilized. In such cases, it is appropriate to develop suitable queuing models and introduce the additional exogenous variables in the model graphically. This paper presents an example where such a methodology of model construction is feasible and helpful in deciding guidelines for making decisions. The working methodology is explained with a numerical illustration and guidelines for using the proposed methodology are described.