Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.     

Alternative Time Scales and Failure Time Models

In many reliability applications, there may not be a unique plausible scale in which to measure time to failure or assess performance. This is especially the case when several measures of usage are available on each unit. For example, the age, the total number of flight hours, and the number of landings are usage measures that are often considered important in aircraft reliability. Similarly, in medical or biological applications of survival analysis there are often alternative scales (e.g., Oakes, 1995). This paper considers the definition of a "good" time scale, along with methods of determining a time scale.     

创新行为如何影响政府绩效:以领导干部任前公示为例的研究探索

在以往关注不同类型创新行为对组织绩效影响的研究中,组织氛围与沟通、人力资源与管理和行政成本是三类较为常见的影响因素,但三者尚未综合形成统一的框架。本研究选取了领导干部任前公示这一以人力资源管理为内容的创新行为,构建了三因素影响组织绩效的过程假设。通过分析问卷调查数据,发现三因素之间存在显著的相关性,且若按照组织边界划分绩效内容,三因素均与组织的内部成长建设绩效显著相关,而同组织外部绩效水平相关程度较弱。依此认为,创新行为影响绩效是一个由人、财、物三因素互动,并依据创新本身特点内容有所侧重的过程。     

Measuring density dependence in survival from mark-recapture data

We discuss the analysis of mark-recapture data when the aim is to quantify density dependence between survival rate and abundance. We describe an analysis for a random effects model that includes a linear relationship between abundance and survival using an errors-in-variables regression estimator with analytical adjustment for approximate bias. The analysis is illustrated using data from short-tailed shearwaters banded for 48 consecutive years at Fisher Island, Tasmania, and Hutton's shearwater banded at Kaikoura, New Zealand for nine consecutive years. The Fisher Island data provided no evidence of a density dependence relationship between abundance and survival, and confidence interval widths rule out anything but small density dependent effects. The Hutton's shearwater data were equivocal with the analysis unable to rule out anything but a very strong density dependent relationship between survival and abundance.     

Analysing change in clinical trials using quasi-likelihoods

In clinical trials, investigations focus upon whether a treatment affects a measured outcome. Data often collected include pre- and post-treatment measurements on each patient and an analysis of the change in the outcome is typically performed to determine treatment efficacy. Absolute change and relative change are frequently selected as the outcome. In selecting from these two measures, the analyst makes implicit assumptions regarding the mean and variance-mean relationship of the data. Some have provided ad hoc guidelines for selecting between the two measures. We present a more rigorous means of investigating change using quasi-likelihoods. We show that both absolute change and relative change are special cases of the specified quasi-likelihood model. A cystic fibrosis example is provided.