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261.
Objectives. This article examines the effect of election outcomes on suicide rates by combining the theory of social integration developed by Durkheim with the models of rational choice used in economics. Methods. Theory predicts that states with a greater percentage of residents who supported the losing candidate would tend to exhibit a relative increase in suicide rates. However, being around others who also supported the losing candidate may indicate a greater degree of social integration at the local level, thereby lowering relative suicide rates. We therefore use fixed‐effects regression of state suicide rates from 1981 to 2005 on state election outcomes during presidential elections to determine which effect is stronger. Results. We find that the local effect of social integration is dominant. The suicide rate when a state supports the losing candidate will tend to be lower than if the state had supported the winning candidate—4.6 percent lower for males and 5.3 percent lower for females. Conclusion. Social integration works at many levels; it not only affects suicide risk directly, but can mediate other shocks that influence suicide risk. 相似文献
262.
Damon Mitchell D. J. Angelone Richard Hirschman Roy S. Lilly Gordon C. Nagayama Hall 《Journal of sex research》2013,50(4):326-333
The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of peer modeling on sexually impositional behavior in the laboratory. Male participants with and without a self‐reported history of sexually aggressive behavior viewed video clips depicting nonaggressive and sexually aggressive behavior and then chose one of the clips to show to a female confederate. Half of the participants were first exposed to a male confederate who showed the sexually aggressive video clip to a female confederate. The other half of the participants were exposed to a male confederate who showed a nonaggressive video clip to a female confederate. Exposure to a male confederate who showed a sexually aggressive video clip to a female was associated with participants' choosing to engage in this same behavior. A self‐reported history of sexually aggressive behavior was also associated with participants' showing the sexually aggressive video clip in spite of believing the effect on the female viewer would be negative. 相似文献
263.
Richard A. Easterlin 《Population and development review》2013,38(Z1):302-308
264.
Richard Berk 《Race and social problems》2009,1(4):231-242
This paper addresses the role of race in forecasts of failure on probation or parole. Failure is defined as committing a homicide
or attempted homicide or being the victim of a homicide or an attempted homicide. These are very rare events in the population
of individuals studied, which can make these outcomes extremely difficult to forecast accurately. Building in the relative
costs of false positives and false negatives, machine learning procedures are applied to construct useful forecasts. The central
question addressed is what role race should play as a predictor when as an empirical matter the majority of perpetrators and victims are young, African American, males. 相似文献
265.
Fluctuations in aggregate crime rates contrary to recent shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population have cast doubt on the predictive power of the age–crime hypothesis. By examining a longer time horizon, back to the early 1930s, we show that the percentage of the young population is a robust predictor of the observed large swings in the U.S. murder rate over time. However, changes in the misery index—the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates—significantly contribute to explaining changes in the murder rate. This applies, in particular, to those changes that are at odds with the long-run trend of the U.S. age distribution, such as the decline in the murder rate in the latter part of the 1970s or its increase starting around the middle of the 1980s. 相似文献
266.
Amy M. Smith Slep Heather M. Foran Richard E. Heyman Jeffery D. Snarr U.S. Air Force Family Advocacy Program 《Journal of marriage and the family》2011,73(2):486-501
Hypothesized risk factors for men's and women's clinically significant intimate partner violence (CS‐IPV) from four ecological levels (i.e., individual, family, workplace, community) were tested in a representative sample of active‐duty U.S. Air Force members (N = 42,744). When considered together, we expected only individual and family factors to account for unique variance in CS‐IPV perpetration. Hypothesized factors from all four ecological levels were related to men's CS‐IPV perpetration bivariately, but, as expected, only individual and family factors accounted for unique variance across ecological levels. For women, only risk factors from the individual and family levels were significantly related to CS‐IPV perpetration even bivariately. Results imply somewhat different risk profiles across gender and identify ecological risk factors of men's CS‐IPV not previously studied. 相似文献
267.
268.
The belief that doctors respond to declining demand by treating patients more aggressively has created skepticism about relying on market forces to restructure physician supply. We argue that even if the physician labor market is dysfunctional under fee-for-service incentives, it can perform better as managed care becomes dominant. Our model implies a nonlinear effect of managed care penetration on incomes. Physicians can offset most or all of initial declines in demand, but cannot insulate themselves indefinitely. This may explain the observation that, until recently, the growth of managed care has not been accompanied by large physician income changes. ( JEL III, J31) 相似文献
269.
Periodic autoregressions are characterised by autoregressive structures that vary with the season. If a time series is periodically integrated, one needs a seasonally varying differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. When the periodic regression model contains constants and trends with unrestricted parameters, the data can show diverging seasonal deterministic trends. In this paper we derive explicit expressions for parameter restrictions that result in common deterministic trends under periodic trend stationarity and periodic integration. 相似文献
270.
Richard J. Estes 《Social indicators research》2010,98(3):363-402
World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress
toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid
population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization,
among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development
trends for the 40-year period 1970–2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between
the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses
more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located
in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations. 相似文献