THE PHYSICIAN LABOR MARKET IN A MANAGED CARE-DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT

The belief that doctors respond to declining demand by treating patients more aggressively has created skepticism about relying on market forces to restructure physician supply. We argue that even if the physician labor market is dysfunctional under fee-for-service incentives, it can perform better as managed care becomes dominant. Our model implies a nonlinear effect of managed care penetration on incomes. Physicians can offset most or all of initial declines in demand, but cannot insulate themselves indefinitely. This may explain the observation that, until recently, the growth of managed care has not been accompanied by large physician income changes. ( JEL III, J31)     

On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions

Periodic autoregressions are characterised by autoregressive structures that vary with the season. If a time series is periodically integrated, one needs a seasonally varying differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. When the periodic regression model contains constants and trends with unrestricted parameters, the data can show diverging seasonal deterministic trends. In this paper we derive explicit expressions for parameter restrictions that result in common deterministic trends under periodic trend stationarity and periodic integration.     

The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization, among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development trends for the 40-year period 1970–2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations.     

THE PROCESS OF CHANGE IN COUPLES THERAPY: A QUALITATIVE INVESTIGATION

Open-ended interviews with 24 couples therapy clients regarding their experience of the process of change revealed shifts in clusters of affect, communication, and cognition. Six additional contextual preconditions for change were also identified. The change process within couples was uniformly reported to be gradual.     

Do worker absences affect productivity? The case of teachers

This article studies the impact of teacher absences on education. Using data spanning three academic years about 285 teachers and 8,631 predominantly economically disadvantaged students from a United States urban school district, it tests assumptions that a substantial portion of teachers' absences is discretionary and that these absences reduce productivity – students' mathematics scores. Since absent teachers are typically replaced by less qualified substitutes, instructional intensity and consistency may decline: ten days of teacher absence reduce students' achievement score by about 3.3 per cent of a standard deviation – enough to lower some students' designation in the state proficiency system and, thus, their motivation to succeed.     

Cramér‐von Mises statistics for discrete distributions with unknown parameters

Choulakian, Lockhart & Stephens (1994) proposed Cramér‐von Mises statistics for testing fit to a fully specified discrete distribution. The authors give slightly modified definitions for these statistics and determine their asymptotic behaviour in the case when unknown parameters in the distribution must be estimated from the sample data. They also present two examples of applications.