Men and Erotic Oases

This article presents a sociological examination of men who have sex with men in public places, commercial sex locations, and via the internet. Through a review of types of erotic oases, characteristics of men who frequent such places, communication modes, dangers, and the processes of seeking, finding, and conquering other men as sexual partners, this overview highlights the ways that sexuality and gender intersect. Focus is on the fluid and malleable nature of gender and sexuality, and the multitude of ways that such concepts are experienced.     

Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization

Probability weighting functions relate objective probabilities and their subjective weights, and play a central role in modeling choices under risk within cumulative prospect theory. While several different parametric forms have been proposed, their qualitative similarities make it challenging to discriminate among them empirically. In this paper, we use both simulation and choice experiments to investigate the extent to which different parametric forms of the probability weighting function can be discriminated using adaptive design optimization, a computer-based methodology that identifies and exploits model differences for the purpose of model discrimination. The simulation experiments show that the correct (data-generating) form can be conclusively discriminated from its competitors. The results of an empirical experiment reveal heterogeneity between participants in terms of the functional form, with two models (Prelec-2, Linear-in-Log-Odds) emerging as the most common best-fitting models. The findings shed light on assumptions underlying these models.     

On the Optimal Use of Suboptimal Forecasts of Explanatory Variables

Ashley (1983) gave a simple condition for determining when a forecast of an explanatory variable (X_t ) is sufficiently inaccurate that direct replacement of X_t by the forecast yields worse forecasts of the dependent variable than does respecification of the equation to omit X_t . Many available macroeconomic forecasts were shown to be of limited usefulness in direct replacement. Direct replacement, however, is not optimal if the forecast's distribution is known. Here optimal linear forms in commercial forecasts of several macroeconomic variables are obtained by using estimates of their distributions. Although they are an improvement on the raw forecasts (direct replacement), these optimal forms are still too inaccurate to be useful in replacing the actual explanatory variables in forecasting models. The results strongly indicate that optimal forms involving several commercial forecasts will not be very useful either. Thus Ashley's (1983) sufficient condition retains its value in gauging the usefulness of a forecast of an explanatory variable in a forecasting model, even though it focuses on direct replacement.     

Measuring Measurement Error in Economic Time Series

A spectral decomposition method is described for obtaining an upper bound on the amount of measurement error in a time series. The method is applied to generated data and to M1b, real GNP, and the CPI. The bounds provide insight into both the amount of measurement error in these series and the stochastic specification of the errors.     

Fifty Years of Refugee Studies: From Theory to Policy

This article reviews the growth of the field of refugee studies, focusing on its links with, and impact on, refugee policy. The last fifty years, and especially the last two decades, have witnessed both a dramatic increase in academic work on refugees and significant institutional development in the field. It is argued that these institutions have developed strong links with policymakers, although this has often failed to translate into significant policy impacts. Areas in which future policy‐orientated work might be developed are considered.     

The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts

In communicating the risk that terror attacks pose to the public, government agencies and other organizations must understand which characteristics of an attack contribute to the public's perception of its severity. An attack's casualty count is one of the most commonly used metrics of a terror attack's severity, yet it is unclear whether the public responds to information about casualty count when forming affective and cognitive reactions to terror attacks. This study sought to characterize the “psychophysical function” relating terror attack casualty counts to the severity of the affective and cognitive reactions they elicit. We recruited n = 684 Mechanical Turk participants to read a realistic vignette depicting either a biological or radiological terror attack, whose death toll ranged from 20 to 50,000, and rated their levels of fear and anger along with the attack's severity. Even when controlling for the perceived plausibility of the scenarios, participants’ severity ratings of each attack were logarithmic with respect to casualty count, while ratings of fear and anger did not significantly depend on casualty count. These results were consistent across attack weapon (biological vs. radiological) and time horizon of the casualties (same-day or anticipated to occur over several years). These results complement past work on life loss valuation and highlight a potential bifurcation between the public's affective and cognitive evaluations of terror attacks.     

The Effect of Sample Size on the Meaning of Significance Tests

Contradictory interpretations of how the meaning of a significance test depends on the sample size are examined.     

From hegemony to affinity

Drawing upon a critique of the (post)Marxist theory of hegemony and examples from contemporary activism, this article assesses new possibilities for the construction of radical alternatives within and against postmodern globalizing capitalism. It notes that many elements of the ‘newest’ social movements have taken a turn away from the universalizing conception of social change that is characteristic of the logic of hegemony as it has developed. within (post)Marxism and (neo)liberalism. Instead, these activist currents are driven by an anarchist logic of affinity. Along with this logic has come an emphasis on direct action tactics, which is discussed. with reference to a theoretical distinction between a politics of the act and a politics of demand. Although most existing paradigms of social movement analysis have not addressed. these shifts, they are implicitly acknowledged. in the concept of constituent power developed. by Michael Hardt and Toni Negri. Their work falls short, however, to the extent that it remains in other respects within the tradition of hegemonic thought. To more fully comprehend current developments, it is necessary to construct an alternative genealogy based. on anarchist theory and practice, with a focus on the tradition of ‘structural renewal’ that finds it apogee in the work of Gustav Landauer.