Bayesian credible intervals for response surface optima

In response surface methodology, one is usually interested in estimating the optimal conditions based on a small number of experimental runs which are designed to optimally sample the experimental space. Typically, regression models are constructed from the experimental data and interrogated in order to provide a point estimate of the independent variable settings predicted to optimize the response. Unfortunately, these point estimates are rarely accompanied with uncertainty intervals. Though classical frequentist confidence intervals can be constructed for unconstrained quadratic models, higher order, constrained or nonlinear models are often encountered in practice. Existing techniques for constructing uncertainty estimates in such situations have not been implemented widely, due in part to the need to set adjustable parameters or because of limited or difficult applicability to constrained or nonlinear problems. To address these limitations a Bayesian method of determining credible intervals for response surface optima was developed. The approach shows good coverage probabilities on two test problems, is straightforward to implement and is readily applicable to the kind of constrained and/or nonlinear problems that frequently appear in practice.     

The Extent of Economic Vulnerability in the Canadian Labour Market and Federal Jurisdiction: Is There a Role for Labour Standards?

This paper characterizes vulnerable workers in Canada and the federal jurisdiction, based upon characteristics such as employment status, demographic characteristics, and job characteristics, and identifies areas in which labour standards may have a role. Based on this analysis, the paper evaluates the potential for labour standards to address economic vulnerability, focusing on labour standards policies aimed at wages and benefits, hours, and employment arrangements. In addition, the analysis considers the extent to which labour standards are likely to reach vulnerable workers. The results suggest several potential roles for labour standards and highlights policy implications.

Cleaning Up Water? Or Building Rural Community? Community Watershed Organizations in Pennsylvania*

Abstract Recent initiatives from state and federal government agencies have helped foster the formation of community‐based watershed organizations. Although there is a great deal of enthusiasm about the potential of these organizations to enhance water quality, relatively little attention has been paid to the impacts these organizations may have on the well‐being of rural communities more generally. Assessments of effectiveness have typically focused on specific activities and accomplishments, rather than a broader range of community‐based effects. In short, we ask whether community‐based environmental management improves community as well as environment. Our research utilized a mixed‐methods design, including a statewide mail survey of all Pennsylvania watershed organizations, followed by in‐depth interviews with 28 rural watershed organizations. This sequential approach progressively explored in more detail definitions of effectiveness, including the building of rural capacity. We find watershed organizations are potentially effective mechanisms for building local leadership, enhancing the skills of rural residents, and making valuable connections with other communities, facing similar water‐resource and rural‐development issues. However, the range of issues with which local watershed organizations engage and the methods they currently utilize may eventually limit their usefulness.     

Ungleiche Chancen im Wissenschaftssystem: Artefakt oder Realität?

The article “Emergence of an academic elite? The impact of universities’ size and reputation on research funding” by Katrin Auspurg, Thomas Hinz and Jürgen Güdler (volume 4/2008 of this Journal) discusses critically Richard Münch’s thesis of monopolistic tendencies in the German science system. Unfortunately the authors focus in their analysis on an improper object, the “Individual grants programme” (Normalverfahren) of the German Research Foundation (DFG). However, problematic developments for the German science system will rather result from the “Coordinated grants programmes” (koordinierte Programme), in particular the excellence initiative. Furthermore the authors fail to connect their analysis to the broader context of the functions and implications of the increasing role of third party funding in the German science system.     

Using conceptual models as a planning and evaluation tool in conservation

Conservation projects are dynamic interventions that occur in complex contexts involving intricate interactions of social, political, economic, cultural, and environmental factors. These factors are constantly changing over time and space as managers learn more about the context within which they work. This complex context poses challenges for planning and evaluating conservation project. In order for conservation managers and evaluation professionals to design good interventions and measure project success, they simultaneously need to embrace and deconstruct contextual complexity.In this article, we describe conceptual models—a tool that helps articulate and make explicit assumptions about a project's context and what a project team hopes to achieve. We provide real-world examples of conceptual models, discuss the relationship between conceptual models and other evaluation tools, and describe various ways that conceptual models serve as a key planning and evaluation tool. These include, for example, that they document assumptions about a project site and they provide a basis for analyzing theories of change.It is impractical to believe that we can completely eliminate detail or dynamic complexity in projects. Nevertheless, conceptual models can help reduce the effects of this complexity by helping us understand it.     

Examining the role of cognitive dissonance in crisis fundraising

Fundraising scholarship has focused on the application of public relations theory to the process particularly in exploring the predictive power in applying relationship management theory to the non-profit organization–donor relationship. However, people often are impacted by catastrophic events and want to donate to relief efforts even though they may not be connected to the region. A survey of two American Red Cross chapters’ donors revealed that individuals who contributed to the December 2004 tsunami relief efforts were more likely to experience feelings of cognitive dissonance than non-donors, and their donations resulted in a consonance restoration. These results support an argument for non-profits, particularly those in crisis response, to have an active crisis communication plan in place that deals not only with responding to the event but also having a proactive plan established to publicize how to donate to relief efforts. Highlighting the consonance restoration, non-profits should also discuss the positive aspects of donating to their efforts, such as the work being done for the disaster victims.     

How Sunday, price, and social norms influence donation behaviour

We describe a natural field experiment investigating donation behaviour. The setting was an art gallery where donations could be deposited into a transparent box in the foyer. Two aspects of the donation environment were manipulated: signs on the donation box and the initial contents of the box. We used three sign treatments: a control with no sign, a sign that thanked donors, and a sign that indicated donations would be matched. We used two initial contents treatments: one with relatively little money ($50) and one with four times as much. The average donation per donor was significantly larger in the $200 treatments but this was offset by a decrease in the propensity to donate. In the matching treatments donations were significantly larger both at the per donor and per visitor level. A control variable turned out to have the largest influence on donation behaviour: the day of the week. The average donation per visitor was 51% higher on Sundays, when compared to every other day of the week.     

Negotiating the Intersection of Racial Oppression and Heteronormativity

This qualitative study examines the narratives of seven heterosexual, cisgender individuals who identify both as persons of color and as positively disposed toward LGB and transgender-identified persons. Using psycho-discursive qualitative methodology, the authors will present the narrative strategies taken up by these positively disposed cisgender heterosexuals of color as they attempt to position themselves as supportive of LGB and transgender persons while negotiating the discourse of heteronormativity. The three narrative strategies have been titled differentiation, empathy, and coherence. In addition to mapping the three narrative strategies, the authors also explore why informants may choose certain strategies over others and argue that the intersection of social identities must be considered when attempting to understand social oppression. Implications for the human services fields will be discussed.     

DIVERSIFICATION GAINS FROM INCLUDING REAL ESTATE IN MIXED-ASSET PORTFOLIOS*

Diversification gains in mean-variance efficiency derived from including real estate in financial asset portfolios are examined. Optimal financial and mixed-asset portfolios were generated by selecting from an investment universe including several distinct financial and real estate media. Deficiencies of previous studies were overcome by employing data with improved representativeness and comparability. The efficient mixed-asset portfolios dominated the efficient financial asset portfolios implying that purely financial asset diversification is inefficient. The optimal mixed-asset portfolio prescribed that approximately two-thirds of the investment wealth be allocated to real estate and one-third to the financial media.