Women's Employment in Transition, 1992–4: the Case of Poland

Since the early 1990s the Polish economy has, in the move towards a market economy, undergone substantial economic reforms which resulted initially in a severe recession and notably in widespread unemployment. In a country where women have traditionally played a major role in the workforce it is pertinent to ask how their role has been affected during the early years of transition to a market economy, what factors explain this, and what their employment prospects are likely to be in a free market economy. After sketching the key features of women's employment in Poland pre-transition the article then addresses these questions using data drawn mainly from the Labour Force Surveys of 1992 and 1994. It finds that women's labour market position has been changing and in 1994 could be said to be mixed: while on the one hand it seems to be deteriorating (rising rates of inactivity and unemployment, the feminization of part-time work), on the other women seem to have been relatively protected from the worst effects of marketization and are in a better position than men according to some unemployment indicators. Prospects for women's employment under a free market economy also appear to be mixed, with much depending on whether the Polish government introduces a framework of national measures to support and encourage women who enter into paid employment.     

Integrating risk assessment and life cycle assessment: a case study of insulation.

Increasing residential insulation can decrease energy consumption and provide public health benefits, given changes in emissions from fuel combustion, but also has cost implications and ancillary risks and benefits. Risk assessment or life cycle assessment can be used to calculate the net impacts and determine whether more stringent energy codes or other conservation policies would be warranted, but few analyses have combined the critical elements of both methodologies In this article, we present the first portion of a combined analysis, with the goal of estimating the net public health impacts of increasing residential insulation for new housing from current practice to the latest International Energy Conservation Code (IECC 2000). We model state-by-state residential energy savings and evaluate particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in diameter (PM2.5), NOx, and SO2 emission reductions. We use past dispersion modeling results to estimate reductions in exposure, and we apply concentration-response functions for premature mortality and selected morbidity outcomes using current epidemiological knowledge of effects of PM2.5 (primary and secondary). We find that an insulation policy shift would save 3 x 10(14) British thermal units or BTU (3 x 10(17) J) over a 10-year period, resulting in reduced emissions of 1,000 tons of PM2.5, 30,000 tons of NOx, and 40,000 tons of SO2. These emission reductions yield an estimated 60 fewer fatalities during this period, with the geographic distribution of health benefits differing from the distribution of energy savings because of differences in energy sources, population patterns, and meteorology. We discuss the methodology to be used to integrate life cycle calculations, which can ultimately yield estimates that can be compared with costs to determine the influence of external costs on benefit-cost calculations.     

The Application of Neural Networks and a Qualitative Response Model to the Auditor's Going Concern Uncertainty Decision*

An auditor gives a going concern uncertainty opinion when the client company is at risk of failure or exhibits other signs of distress that threaten its ability to continue as a going concern. The decision to issue a going concern opinion is an unstructured task that requires the use of the auditor's judgment. In cases where judgment is required, the auditor may benefit from the use of statistical analysis or other forms of decision models to support the final decision. This study uses the generalized reduced gradient (GRG2) optimizer for neural network learning, a backpropagation neural network, and a logit model to predict which firms would receive audit reports reflecting a going concern uncertainty modification. The GRG2 optimizer has previously been used as a more efficient optimizer for solving business problems. The neural network model formulated using GRG2 has the highest prediction accuracy of 95 percent. It performs best when tested with a small number of variables on a group of data sets, each containing 70 observations. While the logit procedure fails to converge when using our eight variable model, the GRG2 based neural network analysis provides consistent results using either eight or four variable models. The GRG2 based neural network is proposed as a robust alternative model for auditors to support their assessment of going concern uncertainty affecting the client company.     

Revising Infant Mortality Rates for the Early Twentieth Century United States

Accurate vital statistics are required to understand the evolution of racial disparities in infant health and the causes of rapid secular decline in infant mortality during the early twentieth century. Unfortunately, U.S. infant mortality rates prior to 1950 suffer from an upward bias stemming from a severe underregistration of births. At one extreme, African American births in southern states went unregistered at the rate of 15 % to 25 %. In this study, we construct improved estimates of births and infant mortality in the United States for 1915–1940 using recently released complete count decennial census microdata combined with the counts of infant deaths from published sources. We check the veracity of our estimates with a major birth registration study completed in conjunction with the 1940 decennial census and find that the largest adjustments occur in states with less-complete birth registration systems. An additional advantage of our census-based estimation method is the extension backward of the birth and infant mortality series for years prior to published estimates of registered births, enabling previously impossible comparisons and estimations. Finally, we show that underregistration can bias effect estimates even in a panel setting with specifications that include location fixed effects and place-specific linear time trends.     

Online psychoeducation with parent management training: Examining the contribution of peer support

Psychoeducation is an empirically based intervention that is increasingly delivered online to individuals and groups. Low participation has been a problem for online designs that include peer support. New technology designs have been called for, and in response, we developed a model that synchronized the delivery of individual and group‐based psychoeducational activities for parent management training. We used a problem‐based learning strategy delivered to caregivers of youth demonstrating oppositional behaviours to encourage the development of helping processes and peer support. This mixed methods intervention study had high rates of participant retention and positive measurable changes for two of its three psychoeducational outcome measures. When we merged the study data, we observed that mutual aid—a frequently sought goal of group‐based interventions—contributed to participant outcomes.     

Exploring drivers of demand for child protection services in an English local authority

This paper reports on an empirical study of child protection services in a local authority where rates of investigations and interventions rose to unprecedented levels during the course of a single year. The aim of the research was to explore explanations for this rise in demand among the providers of children's social care in the area. Using an interpretative qualitative design, a series of focus groups and interviews were carried out with practitioners and managers (n = 25) from statutory services and Early Help. The findings identified a combination of long‐term and short‐term drivers of demand. Long‐term factors emphasized the impact of rising levels of deprivation combined with cuts to community‐based services for children and young people. Short‐term factors ranged from a more proactive approach to child neglect to more effective multi‐agency partnerships and joint decision making. The interaction between these factors was found to be accentuating an underlying shift to “late intervention” across the sector. The findings are contextualized in relation to contemporary debates about the crisis of demand for children's social care and the complex relationship between prevention and protection.     

Private security,maritime piracy and the provision of international public safety

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Private solutions to personal protection and property rights often evolve in environments that are weakly institutionalized. In this vein, we examine the effect of...     

A remote sensing look at the economy of a Russian region (Rostov) adjacent to the Ukrainian crisis

Satellite data used in combination with a stochastic production function method reveal an inefficient formal economy in rural Rostov Oblast 2013–2015 embedded in an overall (formal and informal) relatively efficient economy with the measurement of both important to better understand non-economic impacts of sanctions. Increased military activity may have insulated the formal economy of the border area from poor economic performance and the deindustrialization that characterizes adjacent areas. The current Oblast Administration’s grant program to localities does not reward relatively efficient economic performance with a model suggested here to change the policy. The region’s economy has the ability to absorb many Ukrainian refugees though non-economic issues support the current assistance from other Russian regions in helping relocate refugees beyond Rostov region. Like other conflict zones, urban areas experience less of an impact relative to rural areas.