Evidence on the Superiority of Analysts Quarterly Earnings Forecasts for Small Capitalization Firms*

Financial analysts provide information to support investment analysis and decisions for an ever increasing number of firms. As part of their services they also produce earnings forecasts for covered firms. While there has been much research investigating the determinants of financial analyst earnings forecast superiority for large, widely-followed firms, little research has focused on smaller firms. Until recently, these smaller firms have been largely ignored. This study focuses exclusively on small firms and provides evidence of differing behavior for such firms compared to results previously reported for large firms. Errors in quarterly earnings per share forecasts of small firms obtained from a univariate time-series model are also examined. Regression results indicate that time-series model parameters possess information content with respect to forecast accuracy for analyst-covered firms only. These results are obtained after controlling for firm size, model adequacy, and industry, quarter, and year effects. This suggests that analysts are more likely to cover small firms for which they are able to decipher information correlated with that impounded in the “shocks” in the quarterly earnings time series as captured by the time-series model parameters.     

How are policies implemented in children's services? Developing an initial programme theory to evaluate the implementation of the new Child Sexual Exploitation guidance in Wales

Although children's social care is an area rich in guidance, there is very little research looking at the implementation of new policies in the United Kingdom. In this article, we report on the first stage of a realist evaluation of the implementation of the new Safeguarding Children from Child Sexual Exploitation guidance in Wales. We discuss the development of an initial programme theory, for which we conducted semi-structured interviews with practitioners and managers in three local authorities. We developed programme theories across three areas: policy nature and development, implementation plans and organizational context. Findings suggest that, for policies to produce a significant impact on practice, they need to be sufficiently different to social workers' current perceptions of practice. Second, we found that the coordination between national and local policies is critical for successful implementation as contradictions between them might lead to confusion in what local teams should prioritize. Finally, our findings highlight the importance of effective communication of policy changes, as well as a supportive organizational culture to strengthen implementation in local contexts. These findings illustrate the complexity of policy implementation and the need for policymakers to consider the meaningful involvement of local practitioners in national policy development.     

EDUCATION

The power of an integer programming approach—and more particularly a 0,1 programming approach—to resource allocation problems is not widely appreciated. Recent developments in mathematical programming and in problem formulation enable decision makers to deal explicitly with the special conditions which characterize real world problems in capital budgeting, scheduling, and facilities planning. In this paper, somewhat tutorial in nature, we seek to demonstrate formulation and solution of an equipment selection resource allocation problem with several special conditions. The problem can be solved on any reasonably equipped computer system. Sensitivity studies are also performed and discussed.