When does the expectation of a ratio equal the ratio of expectations?

In this paper we investigate the behaviour of a ratio of random variables and try to find conditions under which, this expectation equals the ratio of expectations.     

Metabolic syndrome and the menopause

The metabolic syndrome consists of a combination of risk factors that include abdominal obesity, atherogenic dyslipidaemia, hypertension and insulin resistance. It increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. The increased risk of cardiovascular disease is higher in women than in men. The first manifestation of metabolic syndrome may occur in pregnancy presenting as gestational diabetes or preeclampsia. Both conditions are associated with increased insulin resistance. Also metabolic syndrome is more common in polycystic ovarian syndrome. It has been suggested that there is a metabolic syndrome resulting from the menopause due to estrogen deficiency, as many of the risk factors are more prevalent in postmenopausal women. Also estrogen replacement improves insulin sensitivity and reduces the risk of diabetes. The key elements in managing the metabolic syndrome are weight reduction, increasing physical activity and diet modification. If blood pressure, lipid and glycaemic control are not achieved through these interventions then pharmacological therapy will be required.     

Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems

We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two methods for treating the uncertainty and dependency information within the SMAA-2 multi-criteria decision aid method. The first method applies directly the discrete sample generated by the simulation model. The second method is based on using a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We demonstrate the methods using a decision support model for a retailer operating in the deregulated European electricity market.     

London congestion charge: the impact on air pollution and school attendance by socioeconomic status

Population and Environment - Air pollution negatively affects individuals’ health and human capital accumulation. For example, students’ school performance is hampered by air pollution...     

Coordinating co-production in complex network settings

This article draws together the concepts of network management and co-production with complexity sciences. So far, these approaches have rarely been connected in research literature. We suggest that this conceptual framework offers new insights for analyzing the challenges of co-production in complex network settings in the local public services. The aim of the article is to find out how complex network structures meet the co-production process in the context of social and health care services. The empirical part of the article presents a Finnish case study of a multiprofessional service network producing social and health care services for youth. Here, the clients, in this case children and young people with a need for social services, often need multiple services from different service providers simultaneously. Our research findings suggest that the outcomes of the service process are not only dependent on the client's needs, but rather on organizational and professional interests. Our research gives new insights for the discussion on co-production; when it is applied as an intended policy to improve and deliver public services, the complexity of interaction among the street-level workers and the detached professional frameworks should be kept in mind.     

From modernity through postmodernity to reflexive modernization. Did we learn anything?

Modernization, in the sociological tradition, was usually understood as increasing differentiation. Theorists as different as Marx, Durkheim, Weber and Parsons all shared the view that modernization meant the opening of new horizons. The publication of Lyotard's The Postmodern Condition transformed the discursive universe: contrary to the tradition of differentiation theoretical sociology the pamphlet interpreted modernization as a process in which the plurality of local cultural traditions was destroyed and their various narratives were rearticulated into a unified modern canon under the repressive meta-narratives of science, progress and the Enlightenment. At first, sociologists were at odds with this new interpretation until Beck, Giddens and Lash brought up the idea of modernity in two phases in their Reflexive Modernization (1994) and related publications. According to them, ‘traditional modernity’ was based on cultural closures, such as unified class-identities, nationalities and fixed gender-identities, but it was followed by a ‘second’ or ‘reflexive modernity’, where several traditions lived side by side, just as the postmodernists claimed. An intense debate emerged. The article asks: did we learn anything from the debate on reflexive modernization and if so, can the learnt lessons be used fruitfully in the study of contemporary society? The answer seems to be negative for the most part. However, the modernization theoretical approach can still be seen as a useful tool for framing research questions and contributing to the diagnosis of the era. This is how it can still provide a point of departure for research, but not deliver all the answers.