Eliciting expert judgements about a set of proportions

Eliciting expert knowledge about several uncertain quantities is a complex task when those quantities exhibit associations. A well-known example of such a problem is eliciting knowledge about a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to 1. The usual approach is to assume that the expert's knowledge can be adequately represented by a Dirichlet distribution, since this is by far the simplest multivariate distribution that is appropriate for such a set of proportions. It is also the most convenient, particularly when the expert's prior knowledge is to be combined with a multinomial sample since then the Dirichlet is the conjugate prior family. Several methods have been described in the literature for eliciting beliefs in the form of a Dirichlet distribution, which typically involve eliciting from the expert enough judgements to identify uniquely the Dirichlet hyperparameters. We describe here a new method which employs the device of over-fitting, i.e. eliciting more than the minimal number of judgements, in order to (a) produce a more carefully considered Dirichlet distribution and (b) ensure that the Dirichlet distribution is indeed a reasonable fit to the expert's knowledge. The method has been implemented in a software extension of the Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) to facilitate the multivariate elicitation process.     

Large Deviation Principles for Sequences of Maxima and Minima

In this article, we consider sequences of i.i.d. random variables and, under suitable conditions on the (common) distribution function, we prove large deviation principles for sequences of maxima, minima and pairs formed by maxima and minima. The i.i.d. random variables can be either unbounded or bounded; in the first case maxima and minima have to be suitably normalized.     

Beyond liking or following: Understanding public engagement on social networking sites in China

Corporate pages on social networking sites (SNSs) have become the key platform where publics interact with companies and organizations around the world. Focusing on one of the most important world economies, China, this study explored the types of public engagement with corporate pages on leading Chinese SNSs as well as the motivations and antecedents that drive such engagement. Given the participatory and communal nature of SNSs, this study proposed a conceptual model incorporating social media dependency and several social relationship factors, including parasocial interaction, perceived source credibility, and community identification, that influenced Chinese publics’ engagement with companies on SNSs. We conducted a web survey with a random sample of 245 Chinese SNS users to test the proposed model. The results confirm that with the exception of perceived credibility, social media usage and relationship-oriented factors played a significant role in inducing public engagement in China.     

Practical-Moral Knowledge: The Social Organization of Regulatory Processes in Academic Contexts

In this article, we developed a theoretical frame to analyze how practical-moral knowledge structures the regulatory processes of learning to control and direct behavior during literacy lessons in two elementary classrooms. We describe how regulatory behaviors were congruent with the local social and moral order, constituents of practical-moral knowledge. Variance in the practical-moral knowledge of each classroom revealed two different patterns of regulation: (a) a toggle or shift from other-regulation to self-regulation, with an emphasis on other-regulation and (b) a dynamic pattern of fluid shifts between other-regulation, coregulation, and self-regulation, with an emphasis on coregulation. We argue that regulatory processes do not originate within the individual but rather in and through learning practices.     

THE UNRELENTING SIGNIFICANCE OF MINORITY STATUSES: GENDER,ETHNICITY, AND ECONOMIC ATTAINMENT SINCE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and based on the split-class theory of racial and ethnic discrimination, this research examines the effects of gender, ethnicity, education, family characteristics, and geographic residence over time on economic attainment. While gender and family poverty status had greater impacts on overall economic attainment, results reveal that being an ethnic minority is significantly associated with lower wages. Moreover, results reveal that the disadvantage to racial and ethnic minorities has expanded over time or becomes more important at advanced ages. The results lend support to split-class theory and the arguments of Charles V. Willie that race/ethnicity has become a more important, rather than becoming less important indicator of poverty and income. Further, the results refute the notions that Affirmative Action has accomplished its goals or that it leads to reverse discrimination against White males.     

"I was a dark horse in the eyes of her family": the relationship of cohabiting female couples and their families in Hungary

This article focuses on the relationship of female couples with their parents, siblings, and other relatives by exploring various patterns of coming out and family attitudes. After reviewing existing literature in this field, the article explores the extent to which my interviewees are out to their family, the reasons for and the possible complications about staying in the closet. Next the parents' reactions are discussed, which range from complete rejection through not admitting the truth to themselves to acceptance. Parents find it difficult to come out about their daughter to their immediate environment, as they fear prejudice and being blamed for her sexual orientation. This can also lead to conflict and alienation between parents and daughter. Accepting a person's sexual orientation and relationship, however, is only the first step toward her full integration into the family. Full inclusion in the family is only present when the person's same-sex partner is treated as kin to the same extent as an opposite-sex partner would be. This is demonstrated in a variety of ways, such as the names used (especially by the couple's children) and the system of obligations and favors constituting a formative element of kinship. There might be conflicts, however, when the two partners have different backgrounds and thus different expectations of family relations.     

Women and crime the world over

This article examines female crime rates in twenty-seven countries over the past thirtyfive years. The results show that there has been an overall increase in total crime rates for all of the countries, and that the more economically advanced and industrialized countries have higher crime rates than the less developed nations. All countries also experienced an increase in the percent of all crimes committed by women. The percentages of violent crimes committed by women—specifically homicide and robbery—were consistently low across countries and increased only slightly over time. The percentages of property and financial crimes committed by women—specifically theft and fraud—were consistently higher than the percentages for violent crimes, and have increased more substantially over time. In addition, an analysis of the most recent data revealed a positive and significant relationship between women's overall crime rates and the countries' economic development. In those countries in which women occupy a higher status, as measured by formal years of schooling and representation in the labor force, we found some positive and significant correlations with the arrest rates for theft and fraud. There were also some strong negative relationships between female arrest rates for homicide and their status in society.