Local likelihood tracking of fault lines and boundaries

We suggest locally parametric methods for estimating curves, such as boundaries of density supports or fault lines in response surfaces, in a variety of spatial problems. The methods are based on spatial approximations to the local likelihood that the curve passes through a given point in the plane, as a function of that point. The local likelihood might be a regular likelihood computed locally, with kernel weights (e.g. in the case of support boundary estimation) or a local version of a likelihood ratio statistic (e.g. in fault line estimation). In either case, the local likelihood surface represents a function which is relatively large near the target curve, and relatively small elsewhere. Therefore, the curve may be estimated as a ridge line of the surface; we require only a numerical algorithm for tracking the projection of a ridge into the plane. This approach offers several potential advantages over alternative methods. First, the local (log-)likelihood surface can be graphed, and the degree of 'ridginess' assessed visually, to determine how the level of local smoothing should be varied in different spatial locations in order to emphasize the ridge and hence the curve adequately. Secondly, the local likelihood surface does not need to be computed in anything like its entirety; once we have a reasonable approximation to a point on the curve we may track it by numerically 'walking along' the ridge line. Thirdly, the method is appropriate without change for many different types of spatial explanatory variables—gridded, stochastic or otherwise. Three examples are explored in detail; fault lines in response surfaces and in intensity or density surfaces, and boundaries of supports of probability densities.     

Direct and indirect effects of urbanization on soil and plant nutrients in desert ecosystems of the Phoenix metropolitan area,Arizona (USA)

Desert landscaping has become a dominant land cover type in arid US cities and often includes native plant species. Does replacement of native plant distribution in urban areas also reestablish ecological functioning characteristic of natural deserts? We compared ecological processes in three landscape types that are common to the metropolitan area of Phoenix, Arizona (USA): residential desert yards created from former lawns, Sonoran Desert preserves within the city, and Sonoran Desert preserves outside the city boundaries. Canopy cover, abundance of herbivorous insects, and soil properties (concentration of inorganic nitrogen (N), soil moisture and organic matter content, and water-holding capacity) were higher in residential desert yards than in native desert sites located both within and outside of the city. Furthermore, soil resources in desert yards were not organized around plant canopies, departing from the predictable resource island pattern that is characteristic of natural deserts. Intentional human manipulation and land use history accounts for these differences, while the urban environment contributes only subtly to soil N concentrations beneath plant canopies. While the use of desert landscaping may have important water conservation benefits, it does not help to mitigate the well-documented excess of reactive N within the Phoenix metropolitan area.     

Beyond the stereotypical implications of terrorism: a sociological investigation of Arab immigrants

Post 11 September 2001, terrorism has emerged as the defining stereotype of Arab immigrants. As a result, the study of Arab immigrants has become susceptible to stereotypes because in an era of unprecedented diversity sociological investigation has neglected spirituality. Among the various Arab populations spirituality is fundamental. Subsequently any investigation of Arab immigrants is impossible without acknowledgement of a spiritual dimension in the form of Islam. Moving beyond the stereotypical implications of terrorism will require Western sovereignties to be more informed about the Arab culture. Otherwise, their lack of effort will destine the uninformed to the stereotypical implications of terrorism that will not be limited to Arab immigrants but extend to other populations as well.     

College students' views on gay and lesbian issues: does education make a difference

Many in academia believe that higher education leads to an increase in tolerance towards individuals who are different. There are some empirical findings to support this premise; however, the impact of higher education on acceptance of homosexuality has not been adequately explored. Gays and lesbians in society face many negative attitudes. Based upon the survey results of 364 students at a Midwestern university, juniors and seniors had statistically significant more positive attitudes towards gays and lesbians than did freshmen and sophomores. Even in multi-variate analysis, upper-level students had more positive views on many of the attitudinal measures.     

Unemployment Insurance Policy and Union Wage Formation

Abstract. The paper considers the wage and employment effects of alternative social security policies. Such a policy can take the form of a fixed benefit level or linking the level of unemployment benefits to private sector wages. The latter is an important social security policy instrument to guarantee an equitable distribution of income. A fixed benefit level policy yields lower wages and larger employment than an automatic link between the level of benefits and the wage rate. Further, if the government decides to make the link conditional on the stabilization of the tax rate, wages are lower and employment is higher than in both former alternatives. By endogenizing its social security policy, the government is able to reduce the loss in employment that the link policy brings about.     

Static and Dynamic Pricing of Excess Capacity in a Make‐to‐Order Environment

We consider a make‐to‐order manufacturer that serves two customer classes: core customers who pay a fixed negotiated price, and “fill‐in” customers who make submittal decisions based on the current price set by the firm. Using a Markovian queueing model, we determine how much the firm can gain by explicitly accounting for the status of its production facility in making pricing decisions. Specifically, we examine three pricing policies: (1) static, state‐independent pricing, (2) constant pricing up to a cutoff state, and (3) general state‐dependent pricing. We determine properties of each policy, and illustrate numerically the financial gains that the firm can achieve by following each policy as compared with simpler policies. Our main result is that constant pricing up to a cutoff state can dramatically outperform a state‐independent policy, while at the same time achieving most of the increase in revenue achievable from general state‐dependent pricing. Thus, we find that constant pricing up to a cutoff state presents an attractive tradeoff between ease of implementation and revenue gain. When the costs of policy design and implementation are taken into account, this simple heuristic may actually out‐perform general state‐dependent pricing in some settings.     

Challenges and Opportunities of Open Access: A Panel Discussion

This year's panel discussion, moderated by Beverly Dowdy, offered three perspectives on the current and future trends in open access (OA) from David Crotty, a senior editor from a prominent university publisher; Beth Bernhardt, an assistant dean for collection development and scholarly communications at an academic library; and Dr. Paige Hall Smith, an associate professor at a large state university. Each discussed different opportunities and challenges that open access presents. A question-and-answer period followed, prompting further discussion of the points brought up during the presentations, as well as related issues.     

From New Labour to Rudd/Gillard – transferring social policy

ABSTRACT

From 2007 to 2010, there were national Labour governments in Britain and Australia, the longest and only third time this had occurred since the second World War. The period of New Labour was closing in the UK, and in Australia the Rudd government came to power after 11 years in opposition, directly influenced by the, at times, trailblazing UK Labour government. In the domain of social policy, New Labour was a source of policy inspiration and transfer. Specifically, the Rudd/Gillard governments borrowed heavily its ‘social exclusion’ agenda, and also the use of ‘compacts’ with the third sector. This article examines the policy diffusion and transfer between the UK and Australia, and in doing so offers critical insights into the policy transfer literature. The article examines the reasons for the Australian Labor Party's adoption of these policies, and links this to wider dilemmas and identity crisis that are afflicting centre-left governments across the globe.